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Rob 79812010

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Posts posted by Rob 79812010

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the ensembles its saying below average to 23rd then slightly above till 27th. Beeb is up to 11 degrees by 27th. Am starting to question why I keep obsessing  about all the  model output. The forecasters seem to see stuff that isn't there. And they're probably right I reckon. So many times the F1 shows Narnia. It happens once in a blue moon. If I'm wrong I'll be back straight back on the thread 😅

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

    Some cases yes, not always though. It does seem to be less often these days compared to more severe winters where frontal clashes would bring the snow, then the cold would come back in for a longer period and so you get those brutally cold nights over that snowcover. For me I hate longer cold spells when not much snow is brought in, especially the case with faux cold spells but other cases here i.e December 2022, so something like December 2017 or 24th January 2021 is ideal but again not for everyone. A lot of lmbyism there but it is what it is...

    I'm still thinking less cold air arrives from the west (maybe not for long) from next weekend based on current model data despite the background signals showing it to not exactly do so. Sooner get the snow the better with the upcoming spell. More opportunites to come with more widespread snow events rest of this month if we get those wedges and sliding lows, I am fairly confident with sticking my neck out with that.

    Those winters were rare in fairness. And in Manchester they would turn to rain before more cold, which made it treacherous. Honestly can't remember many like that here. Jan 85 I think! The big ones for Manc were the ones coming from irish sea. 79, 2010. We like them here 😆

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 2

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    33 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

    Having been a member here since 2006 and a lurker since before then, I have now trained myself not to get up or down with each model run. Plenty of time yet for things to get better, or worse but remember, it's only weather! 

    Myself and @nick sussex remember the BBC snow watch days with Bill Farkin and his grebes - that was painful! PS Nick keep the prozac order on hold - we're not there yet! 

    Can you send me your training method?😅

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Really interesting this. I generally think the beeb and net have a good handle on the longer term. I mentioned this morning that the beeb longer term not in sink with the models. 3 times now they've lowered temps out at 20th to 24th. Whereas they were going to very mild yesterday by 23rd, they're now only showing average out at 24th. Also, snow events looking more likely just prior to this as well as next week. Likely very cold next week, a return to average for a few days then back to cold by late Jan. Fascinating stuff. Models done a great job this time

    Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

    Hi Rob. I've moved your post over here where it's more appropriate for discussion. The question "what do they [BBC] base their forecasts on?" is answered in the article below. Basically, the BBC use MeteoGroup to provide their forecasts, and the article - written by MeteoGroup - reveals they use a blend of models and tweeks by their own meteorologists:

    0*GkvhAKRM4-DuDSVO.png

    1*sHhtYhaCe2Uc3IU0IgKwIQ.png The making of : a weather forecast | by MeteoGroup | Medium

    MEDIUM.COM
    It might still be sunny outside, but the light is already changing; a rain shower is imminent. A rectangular, fenced-off area containing…

     

    Thanks so much for that

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    The most interesting aspect of the MetO update is the complete lack of the word "rain" across the entire forecast period, "snow and sleet" featuring a few times. This suggests to me that they are not making much of any 'milder' incursions. 

    Either way, unsurprisingly they are not in camp GFS but very much favouring the EPS/UKM/MOGREPS blend.

    The met update looks fantastic to me. Is this the 'deep dive' being referred to?. I can't remember many forecasts like this in recent years. In fact, given the slight shift on the ensembles and the latest met update, I'm now thinking that the last week of Jan may actually stay on the cold side. There are people on hear with considerably more knowledge than me, but things seem to keep creeping in the right direction. I get the model swings are scary sometimes but keep calm, all is well for coldies. I think!!!

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Beats me what some people are expecting. We're currently 2 to 3 below average, then becomes a few days of barely average (models were showing going above average a few days ago) then cold to very cold for a week. Beyond, who knows but think we're all feeling that a cold Feb is very much coming into the mix. Also, chance of snow for some next week. This isn't a typical Jan scenario for us

    • Like 9

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:

    Not often i comment in the model thread in recent years, but having been here for nearly 17 years experience has suggested more often than not these lows track south (and the GFS tends to over blow them / track too far north), and it is usually the second or third attempt that makes in inroads north. That's potentially the best scenario for the UK as a whole, with battle ground snow to the south, snow showers to north. Sadly someone will always miss out, but this scenario offers the greatest widespread snow potential. Will be intriguing to see how this evolves over the coming days!

    The lows will eventually get through but suspect it will be a relatively short period before back to cold. So, probably slightly below average Jan and I'm gagging for Feb to come 😅

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    Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards

    in Northwest Weather Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:

    Mid January- Early Feb looks ripe for battlegrounds on the Netweather monthly, below average temps this week, well below average temps next week, less cold with milder conditions from the SW perhaps temporarily before colder than average again from the north. Tonight's crazy 12z GFS snow aside - there is real potential for a big impact snow event/ events over the next few weeks. Lots to watch to see what develops, twists, turns and surprises along the way. 

     

     

    Could be a proper winter spell this. Shaded of 79 2010 maybe? Cold generally with short mild spells and some snow events

    • Like 11

    Favourite Januaries

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    The 5th Jan 2010 ushered in quite a severe cold period lasting until 15 Jan, there was a run of ice days 5-9 Jan and many lakes froze over. I went for a walk near Derwent Water on 9 Jan and it looked alpine/arctic. Only time since we've had such depth of cold was early Dec 10 and the 18-26 Dec. We were spoilt in 2010.

    We really were. To me, it was reminiscent of 79. That's not from a technical point of view. Just remember quite a few snow events, staying on ground for a while and short periods of milder weather. Also, both winters had one mega snow event in manc as well as some lesser ones. They weren't the snowy break down types either which are dire for Manchester. Brilliant for Yorkshire though. Can they be good for your neck of the woods at lower levels??

    Favourite Januaries

    in Historic Weather

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    Jan 2010, 2013, 2015, 2019 and 2021 all brought great snow events for here. 2010 was brutally cold. The 5th was incredibly snowy. The 7th saw lows around -15C and highs at -6C. After that, it pretty much stayed cold but not severely. 2013 was a pretty snowy, cold month with a two week spell of below average temperatures. 2015 was quite westerly but strangely had a lot of cold, frosty nights. The 29th saw a pretty major snow event from a north-westerly. 2019 was pretty chilly after a mild December, with a very cold final week. The 30th saw a great snow event, with accumulations totalling 5-10cm. 2021 saw many frosts and snow days, most notably the 20th and 23rd. The 20th started off very mild with morning temps around 10C, by the time it got to 9PM it rapidly dropped to 0C and with it came an intense snow event. 23rd was another pretty good event, with a few hours of continuous snowfall. 

    If I was to rate these years it'd go like this. Best to worst

    1. 2010

    2. 2021

    3. 2013

    4. 2019

    5. 2015

    Its weird isn't it, I'm sure Manchester now has more snow events than the past. Rarely spectacular but then again, we can count them on one hand for Manc. 80's rarely delivered apart from 81 and maybe one ot two more. Cold decade yes, bit not particularly snowy

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