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Rob 79812010

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Posts posted by Rob 79812010

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I wonder if it's helpful to look at the models very much alongside the met bbc forecasts. Of course they can be wrong too, but they seem to be sticking to a slightly colder than average week 2 and week 3 with a possible move to colder later. I still don't get it with the wild swings with some models. They don't seem to show mean outcomes represented in the ensembles. Do they show outliers? Would be grateful if someone could shed some light??

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    makes all the more exciting. 😄😄

    T192 mean. Surely a little excitement. 😄 

    IMG_0561.png

    I for one am very excited by what I'm seeing. Come on, it's not just the models. The forecasters are on to something as well. And I'm not seeing anything about a return to mild on the longer term forecasts. There's a lot to be optimistic about. Of course with the caviat that models, forecasters and just about anyone struggles when it comes to predicting cold outcomes. 70 30 the odds on a lengthy cold spell for me

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Yeah. I think their just playing it safe, there not going to predict severe cold at this stage because the tabloids will be all over it and it will be their heads on the chopping block should it not 

    What I'm liking in the long term forecasts is that I'm not seeing phrases like 'and by the weekend it will turn milder for all areas'.  In fact, it's been a while since a whole month forecast keeps the trend colder

    • Like 3
    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    Latest met office long range forecast,make of it what you will:

     

    ''Thursday 11 Jan - Thursday 25 Jan

    Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period, and a reduced chance of prolonged periods of very unsettled / milder conditions with frequent rain and wind pushing in from the Atlantic. Currently, the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but the risk of impacts from cold, ice and snow is greater than normal.

    Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Wed 27 Dec 2023''

     

    For me that is very good, even though they highlight the risk of severe cold is low, it is always going to be that at this range.

    Am pretty sure the cold at the beginning of the month caught them out.

    8 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

    Am pretty sure the cold at the beginning of the month caught them out.

    Bbcs even better

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Your right there, re a bit of luck 😆 🤣 

    Something of note from a 50 year old, I've experienced 4 or 5 notable winter snow events in my life and 3 of them were in the last 14 years. So while global warming is heating the planet, without question it is ironically affecting our Winters re cold! Don't be fooled into thinking Winters were much better yonks ago, the facts are they were not!!

    Yes, its strange isn't it. I'm 60 and when I was younger it snowed here maybe once every 5 years. In last 15 years  we've had snow probably 4 out of 5 years. Granted its often only a couple of cm. It was forever thus in Manc though barring the famous ones. Bizarre

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    What's happened with the GFS chart?? After new year, now showing the cold embedded pretty much from turn of year. I'm assuming from all the knowledge on hear that its probably bringing the cold in too quick. Sometimes milder outcomes pop up out of the blue and sadly often right. Could this be one of those rare times where the cold surprises us all at short ish notice! Wouldn't that be nice

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I may be jumping the gun here. I have noticed in the 3 years I've been on here that when the models flip flop from very cold outcomes to very mild outcomes in the F1, it usually means the cold ain't coming. For a fewsday now though the F1s have stayed promising and those from a few days ago are showing cold charts in the slightly shorter term. 

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    31 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

    I agree with your point, but when you look at charts for the average winters in times gone by, there would at least be one semi-decent spell you could rely on. It was only the really grotty ones that didn't. Those winters always have and always will exist - and the jet stream should keep us relatively mild in the winter - but we are getting so far removed from "normality", if you can call it that, that in my opinion we are past normality. I know there is decadal variability and of course variability all through time (before naysayers get to me!) but for the current state of things I think days of normality are over.

    The same applies to the summer. The average temperature in London in July and August nowadays is 24C and I imagine that'll creep up to 25C sooner rather than later. I was completely shocked that when checking the average July maxima for LA it isn't far off London, just they have warmer nights and they get a second summer in September/October. The all time max there is 43C so not far off our 40C.

    Average temp in London 'nowadays' is 24! Where have you got that from? Sounds like it's based based on a couple of years

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

    Last winter produced a notable cold 10 day spell 8-18 Dec. Had it occured a month or so later, it would have been quite severe.

    Likewise the last week Feb and first 3 days March 18 very cold, a month earlier and possibly more so.

    In an average winter, a 3-5 day cold spell with mean temps close to freezing seems the best we can hope for, in some years we don't even manage that, 13/14, 15/16, 19/20 and 21/22 for example. 

    Yes, last winter you're dead right. The bit of snow in Manc stayed on ground for a week. 

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

    You're quite right with that. A 7 to 10 day cold period is indeed a good one in the UK by any standard. Beyond that, Feb 86, Dec 10 stand out for me. Winters of 1979 and 2010 were great but definitely sea sawed from cold to mild. 

    Can't remember how long the Dec 81 lasted. 3 weeks maybe??

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Afternoon all 🙂

    Winter on Netweather, don't you just love it?

    The truth is, we often do well to get any cold weather - cold and snowy is rare and cold and snowy in southern Britain is up there with a big lottery win or hen's teeth.

    In a 90 or 91-day winter (December, January, February), to get a 7-10 day cold spell isn't that bad, to get two noteworthy and to have a whole month of cold goes straight into folklore. Everyone remembers December 2010 but who remembers January and February 2011?

    And yet - in my part of lowland East London, where I've lived 25 years, I've had snow lying most years. Yes, it's often transient and melts quickly in the urban heat island but nonetheless I've known snow fall well into March (famously, one Easter Sunday).

    The default for the British Isles, given its location and geography, is mild and wet - the opposite to us is Japan, islands off a large continental land mass but sea currents and the like offer something wholly different and I believe one of the snowiest places on Earth is on Hokkaido (Sapporo?). 

    The weather I miss is cold and foggy under an inversion - the disappearance of fog is the one weather characteristic I would note and I presume that relates to a more turbulent and warmer atmosphere. We just don't have a week under a cold anticyclone (cold at the surface, much higher 850s) any more. 

    I prefer cold to snow in all honesty - you can keep ice and freezing rain but a cold, crisp, sunny winter's day will do nicely. 

    We are, however, where we are and perhaps January or February 2024 will deliver that cold spell we'll be talking about in 20 or 30 years time - I doubt it. The last memorable cold spell for me was March 2013 with an ice day in mid month. 

    You're quite right with that. A 7 to 10 day cold period is indeed a good one in the UK by any standard. Beyond that, Feb 86, Dec 10 stand out for me. Winters of 1979 and 2010 were great but definitely sea sawed from cold to mild. 

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