Rob 79812010
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Posts posted by Rob 79812010
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10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Any run removing heights over Iberia should be viewed with caution!
Let's not!!!
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Net Weather Monthly seems pretty confident for cold and snow chances increasing towards mid Jan. The language gives some confidence to this
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I've always loved winter. Preferably cold and snowy. I get a bit down in summer if it's wet and dreary. Doesn't bother me in slightest in winter though
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12 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:
There are many people on here who put a great deal of time and effort into researching and explaining the background signals in the hope of better learning about the weather. I know I look forward to their posts as I find them so interesting.
Then there are people who seem to want to undermine all that hard work and effort with silly one line posts, as seen above.
I love learning about the models and analysing patterns. I know very little but have learnt a few things. Keep the education going. I imagine in our neck of the woods it's only to be expected that forecasts will sometimes be wrong. Especially longer term. All good though
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19 minutes ago, johncam said:
Sad but true
Know what you mean but first half of 70's were all pretty mild. Cold winters came in late 70's. 80's were cold but honestly in my neck of the woods they were rubbish for snow. 81 the exception. Manchester has had more snowfalls in recent years ie 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023. Actually Nov 19 was a good one too. 2010 probs the best in my life. Why more snowfall now I've no idea. Maybe the old adage, ' it was too cold for snow' in 80s
9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:Know what you mean but first half of 70's were all pretty mild. Cold winters came in late 70's. 80's were cold but honestly in my neck of the woods they were rubbish for snow. 81 the exception. Manchester has had more snowfalls in recent years ie 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023. Actually Nov 19 was a good one too. 2010 probs the best in my life. Why more snowfall now I've no idea. Maybe the old adage, ' it was too cold for snow' in 80s
Meant Nov 21
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1 hour ago, Don said:
Yes, I’m lucky to be old enough to remember the mid-80’s winters, although I would love to have experienced 62/63!
The 2009 and 2010 winters best for me since 79. Mod 80's pretty much snowless bar odd one for Manc. Manc winters have never been good really other than the famous ones
9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:The 2009 and 2010 winters best for me since 79. Mod 80's pretty much snowless bar odd one for Manc. Manc winters have never been good really other than the famous ones
Weirdly, we seem to get more snow events than when I was younger. Never much though
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9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
December generally fails to deliver sustained wintry fayre.. last year was an exception, but fizzled from the 18th. 2010 last time we endured anything extreme. 2012 started wintry but imploded, 2017 and 2020 had their moments. Always feel second half winter best shot at notable cold, just as the case with heatwaves, second half of summer.
Dec 10 was incredible. There were actually some mild periods and it still came out -1 below mean. Coldest December ever? The cold periods were crazy cold
8 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:Dec 10 was incredible. There were actually some mild periods and it still came out -1 below mean. Coldest December ever? The cold periods were crazy cold
Sorry minus 1 average temp for month
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17 hours ago, blizzard81 said:
I really didn't know that about Manchester in 47. Just goes to show how difficult it can be, even back then.
Yeah, I found some really detailed daily records at the time. In 63 it was the depression from the Arctic moving south which gave everyone a lot of snow. Not sure Manc had much after that. I dread the fronts moving Sw to Ne. Always good for Yorkshire but crap here. Manchester does well from Irish Sea snow showers. Gotta be quick though otherwise rain
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I'm very much enthused by this sites latest monthly and their reading ofbthe models going into January. They are seeing real potential deeper into Jan for cold and snow chances. Bearing in mind the possible back loaded winter potential, this looks very eye opening to me. Could all be wrong or course!!!
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16 minutes ago, Gizzy said:
I agree, it is exciting to read but the reality is often way off. Its even worse if your like me, when you get excited with it all and tell the family there is a mighty freezing spell on its way with copious amounts of snow and we end up with a thirteen degree westerly haha.
I always hope they've forgotten when I tell them its gonna freeze. To be honest, I don't think they listen anyway!!
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5 hours ago, blizzard81 said:
Very short lived though. I get your point, would be good by today's standards. I was on college day release during that Jan 95 blizzard and remember having to walk home as all the buses were off and dad couldn't get his car out. I absolutely loved it
I was working in Leeds and had to drive back up the motorway hill to Hudds Took 7 hours but apparently Fiestas good in snow!! Was certainly a memorable one. The 80's was a funny one for Manchester away from elevation. Certainly cold, but missed out badly on some of the snow events. That bloody shadow!!! Manchester even missed out in 47 I read. 5cm max depth in town centre. I envy West Yorkshire folk!!!
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12 minutes ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:
This is the most insightful thing that's been said all year. Cold chasing in the UK has always been a cruel hobby, but as the climate warms it has become nothing short of self torture. It's like an addiction to something toxic and harmful but we just can't seem to quit. For me personally, it has shifted slightly to chasing the sun now which has become equally as futile. It seems the warming climate is making things wetter and gloomier too. Every sun symbol that appears on my weather app gets downgraded to a partly sunny symbol then a dark one then rain as it gets nearer.
There are so many hobbies and obssessions I can think of that give something back in terms of reward for people, even bird watching leads to seeing some actual birds. We have picked the most stressful and repeatedly disappointing passtime I can think of outside of gambling and considering the projections from scientists of what is going to happen to our winters (already is clearly) Its probably time we all just let go.I've got a different take on the take on the same theme. In Mancheater snow has always been in short supply given the geography. But, because its so infrequent, the more I love it when it happens. I always believe the models when they predict narnia, but its a fantasy I know most of the time. That for me is the beauty of it. Ridiculous really isn't it
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6 hours ago, blizzard81 said:
I hope you can experience something akin to that spell. I had just turned 13. It was amazing but not totally out of the ordinary at the time as we had experienced some good winter times in my first decade. Dec 81 (part of my name on here), 78/79 which I have only vague recollections, the mid 80's winters which were fab ..... Little did I think at the time that I wouldn't really experience anything like that again - coming up to 50 now lol
2010?? Similar to 79. Also, mid 90's had some great winters in your neck of the woods. Remember the great blizzard of Jan 95. Incredible snowfall in West Yorkshire. Was living there at the time.
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Could I ask a question? Metcheck Long term forecast shows nearly whole of February as average sub zero. Is this the models we talk about feeding this?? If it was true, would be the greatest month of my life
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15 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
This is awful.
All looks alright for Xmas and maybe cold again towards new year. Keep the faith. Always flips around on GFS and enough cold flips to keep us in the hunt
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9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:
You're right but they are rare I think. 2010 last one I recall. Easterly snow even rare for side of pennines. Think there was a good one 95 but don't know how far west it went. Manc had 6 inches, similar to 2010. We're just in wrong part of UK
Meant the systems moving down from North are rare. Usually polar lows from Arctic which aren't good for us
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34 minutes ago, captaincroc said:
This for me is the snow dream. I've always wanted to experience a proper blizzard in my town, yeah we have had strong winds but always wanted to see what it would be like with below zero temps, heavy snow and strong winds. I have always suspected the only true way would be something that spun down from the north with uber cold air attached.
I know some people have experienced blizzards with sliders etc but in Crewe we are in the rain shadow as the winds are normally South Easterly in those set ups. This scenario above would truly bring a Christmas blizzard.You're right but they are rare I think. 2010 last one I recall. Easterly snow even rare for side of pennines. Think there was a good one 95 but don't know how far west it went. Manc had 6 inches, similar to 2010. We're just in wrong part of UK
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11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
I was being a bit flippant. Obviously, they do all converge to the actual weather as time ticks down to T0, so they will have to agree in the end. It’s when you get down to T72, say, and one still disagrees with the others, that one can’t have confidence. In the past, often it has been the UKMO that fails to get on board when cold is forecast, and annoyingly proves to be right. But just as often, the miscreant climbs down eventually!
The ECM op may be at odds, but the GFS solution is well represented in its ensembles, so the op may well be wrong here, time will tell…
Hope so and thanks. Makes sense
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28 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
We will eventually need all the models on board if it is to happen!
This is where I get confused. Does that mean if most models go for cold but one doesn't, it probably won't happen??
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11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Gfs just Woeful, still one of the mildest runs the op was.Their is a 20c spread in 850s,on gfs probably best to ignore the model with its fantasy storms and snow it has been showing.
Just bin it into the Atlantic to sink without trace
Wasting people's time showing outlandish charts that never materialise!
Yes, and as a relatively novice I still don't get why deep into F1 they show such extremes from day to day. Shouldn't it be some kind of mean temperature?? Some of the long term forecasts even by the credible forecasters show crazy temps sometimes
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13 minutes ago, Sleet30031972 said:
Clearly you are talking about central Manchester here. For north Manchester, certainly Oldham and beyond, the 1980s winters were about as good as it gets. But yeah, many a time then that Rochdale, say, was under tonnes of the stuff while a few miles down the Rochdale road would be nowt.
I know, you're right! My pops would drive out with me to the higher parts and I loved i
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19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Have to add December 2023 has delivered most snow we've seen in December for decades.. sorry to rub it in!
I was so glad. I've got lovely memories of the lakes. To get so much snow in Wimdermere and Coniston was a dream. No idea why Manchester never gets that much! Jan 2010 was best in Manc in my lifetime. Wish I was older so could remember 63!!
9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:I was so glad. I've got lovely memories of the lakes. To get so much snow in Wimdermere and Coniston was a dream. No idea why Manchester never gets that much! Jan 2010 was best in Manc in my lifetime. Wish I was older so could remember 63!!
79 was good but more snowfalls 2010
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2 hours ago, johncam said:
Had longer colder spells up here at modest height as well
Weirdly, Manchester does seem to have some snow most years now, though usually only a centimetre or two. Even though the 80's was pretty good for cold winters, it wasn't great for snow! Some places did well though
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35 minutes ago, johncam said:
So another mild Dec on the cards then
Cold spells are rarely long in my experience. I'd say that pretty normal other than a few exceptional winters. Certainly in my 60 years anything 7 days plus is pretty good really. Not saying we haven't had sustained periods of cold but they are few and far between and in my part of the world always were
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Looking at the GFS model into Jan, looks promising to me. Ties in with some of the major forecasts. Surely some optimism for Jan??