[Moans, ramps and banter]

10 minutes ago, joggs said:

Totally agree TEITS with the finger pointing but one or two do set themselves up for it constantly banging the epic cold drum. Also, the same can be said of the people who just turn up on the mad thread to snipe.

Anyway,I suppose it's a cold week coming up then a mobile set up that I don't think will last long. I also think the models are overdoing the amount of energy coming at us.

The saying "cold,once in, is hard to displace" could be tested.

I suppose longer term there can only be upgrades now.

For me, this was always looking like a 1 week cold spell. It's actually already been pretty cold the last week though nothing to write home about. Good Jan really with promise for Feb for coldies

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

17 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

There usually is at least one or two dustings of snow around here at this time of year, it doesn't stick around for very long.

Yeah, it's rare that it sticks around. 

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

10 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

Considering how much ramping up with people acting like this set up was the second coming of Christ, it's practically poetic that the result is the snow getting pushed into France.

In fairness, it has always looked more likely. Anyway, you could be in a good place for snow earlier in week!!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

30 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Evening, most intrigued by latest UKMO extended. That chart does not appear to be indicating for a full frontal Atlantic zonal change. Signs already being shown of some disruption to the low out west. The low circulation off Iberian peninsular helping to promote a " cold ridge" of higher pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles  by next weekend. In the meanwhile a lot of cold weather for you lot to endure for most of next week with snow potential. Wonder if its going to lead to a longer term block ? Don,t tell GFS . Defo time for a beer. Have a good evening.

C

Wonder if this is why somenof ensembles are showing average or slightly below to 27th!!! Whatever it is, hope it doesnt affect return of cold in Feb. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

9 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

This has been such a long chase and it’s definitely going to turn much, much colder next week. Hopefully we all see some unexpected surprises pop up when it comes to snow.

But what was potentially on the table that we thought we were chasing a week or two ago, you can’t help but be a little deflated with how next week may actually play out.

Don't worry, we'll be jumping for joy later tonight!!!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

10 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Yes

Ah, fair enough!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I'm still a bit of a novice but what am I missing here. The gfs chart looks amazing to me. Is it the lack of snow??

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

21 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Its been there since day 10 charts in one form or another 

Everything seems pretty much as expected to me. It was always meant to get milder in the last week of Jan. Cold before, cold after and as many have said, snow events usually pop up at short notice. I get the usual ups and downs of the charts but not much changed to me. I'm enjoying all of this! Makes a change from a lot of jans

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Great Met O update.  Good for cold well into Feb. So a very cold week, followed by a likely mild few days thought could be slightly mild and then back into cold!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

45 minutes ago, booferking said:

Surely a slip of the finger on the wrong emoji

It was 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

16 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

Hi Rob if that is the event I think it is then I believe that may have been a north/south occluded front stalling against an easterly fed high pressure.. checking out the Noaa archive on wetterzentrale for charts around that time.

Interesting! Thanks so much for that

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

44 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

Great post again Catacol.

As you rightly say Super duper legendary winter synoptics like 87.91 or 78 are very rare indeed and even were fairly rare back in the 60's 70's 80's heyday.

However snow producing synoptics are rather less scarce and can still arise even in our warming  world.

I think there could still be some big fluctuations in the modelling over the coming weekend in regards to what happens beyond next weekend. 

What were those synoptics that were unusual. I ask because I remember a day in Jan 96 when manc had a crazy snowfall. I think it was an easterly?? The only other really heavy snowfalls in my lifetime were 79 and 2010 which I know weren't easterlys

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, dodge said:

Looking like a proper wintry week next week, the temperatures will be on our side barely above zero during the days and quite a few below at night.  Happy that we've got potential snow from a North-North Westerly pepping up off the Irish sea instead of the torture of watching a low from the south west making painful progress and instigating a snow shield in my parts. Fingers crossed most of us will see a bit of snow falling next week

I know. Those south west ones are useless aren't they. I remember lots in the 80's. For Manc they never gave anything. Irish sea our friend. 79 perfect example

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Next week 3 to 4 below for our parts. Certainly a cold spell

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Cool zonal rob 

could be ok over decent elevation n england and Scotland 

but cool and wet for most with milder interludes re warm sectors 

Thanks! So may not be so mild that week then??

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Question for anyone please! Why are the GEFS 850 temps consistently showing average temps or below from 23rd to 28th?? I always think these are fairly reliable but seems to be going against what's being said about that week. Is it still in the balance and that the final week may not actually bea mild week? If high pressure drops south doesn't that then allow the mold south westerlies or are there other things in the mix?? Apologies if this has been explained already. Lot of stuff on here!

Meant the enembles

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Question for anyone please! Why are the GEFS 850 temps consistently showing average temps or below from 23rd to 28th?? I always think these are fairly reliable but seems to be going against what's being said about that week. Is it still in the balance and that the final week may not actually bea mild week? If high pressure drops south doesn't that then allow the mold south westerlies or are there other things in the mix?? Apologies if this has been explained already. Lot of stuff on here!

[Moans, ramps and banter]

13 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

March? He's either got a crystal ball or he's half mystic Meg and half nostrodamous!

There's quite a few indications that Feb could be cold as well

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Does this happen when there's a slight switch to North westerly??

I ask because manc got 3 inches that day. Usually we get from north westerly flows

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, danm said:

Correct, I remember this event only being forecast a day or two before it happened, it ended up giving many in the south a big dump of snow, particularly central Southern England. 

 

Nothing widespread in terms of snow showing at the moment for next week, but that is usually the case except in situations where we have battleground snow events. Many easterlies often look dry, but then tend to produce more snow than is modelled several days away. 

Two other examples of short term forecasted, big snow events from northerlies for areas not prone to snow showers in northerlies - last December's 6 inch dumping for many in the S/SE was forecast at short notice, the embedded cold came from a northerly. 18th December 2010 - another potent Arctic blast that many thought looked dry, except for the usual spots prone to the wishbone effect - yet a circulation developed that again dumped several inches over the south. Not suggesting any of this will happen next week, but you can't write anything off. 

Does this happen when there's a slight switch to North westerly??

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

I've got to hold my hands up here. Was critical of the ensembles graphs last night and said beeb would get it right. They're actually starting to fall in line now with the models

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just looked at beeb for manc for next week. Extending the cold, colder next week, 3 days of snow and not such a warm up!!!!!!

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

56 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I appreciate it doesn't happen every time but I'm always mindful of January 2010 - the time the entire country (except Bournemouth!) went white due to a feature only modelled within T48 - and that was on a northerly.

Never sure whether it was a polar depression or not. Think it was an Irish sea event that spread south

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Does anyone know why gefs ensemble 850 graphs keeping weather at average from 23rd to 28th? Isn't that against everything we're seeing??

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

50 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anyone noticed anything about the GEFS?

You mean temp graphs?? Can't see how they could be right though