Catbrainz

Any ideas what’s caused the Atlantic onslaught the past 6 months or so? I’m gonna guess El Niño firing the jet up

5.7C and 59mm

@Summer8906 I went for a March comparison over Oct/Nov as it felt pleasant and warm in the sun and noon today could pass for say 2;30pm in mid March. A day like yesterday I would on the other hand see as a late Oct/early Nov sort of day with wet and mild weather. It didn't feel that humid for me today but it seems my area is more protected from SWlys than coastal Hampshire with high ground to my SW so the air was a lil drier for me.

It feels like mid March today with 11c and partly sunny a very Bartlett high feeling day.. If a winter is going to be mild more days like today please.

I would say slightly worse overall but not drastically different. Tofino at 49N reminds me of a coastal west Wales climate at 52Nish or so and Vancouver at 49N reminds me a lot of Weymouth at 51N. Prince Rupert at 54N reminds me of Fort William Scotland at 57N and while not in BC Ketchikan Alaska is basically the same climate as Fort William and is at 55.5N. Port Hardy does seem a fair bit worse than any sea level UK climate at 51N maybe local geography makes it worse.

I hope that what the models are showing the Iberian high moving north to become a Bartlett/Euro high or even further north into another UK high comes to pass. Iberian highs are the worse winter pattern they tend to bring a lot of zonal westerlies. The high moving north to become a Bartlett means more anticyclonic southerlies and south eastelries rather than cyclonic westerlies and southwesterlies. In other words more Feb 2019 and less Dec 2023 please!

I’d say a Bartlett/Euro high with southerlies or south easterlies. Something like Feb 2019 but not as warm due to shorter days and lower sun angle.

December 2023 was another bogeyman month in the bogeyman year of 2023 having March 2023 and July 2023 for company, three bogeyman months in one year is impressive. December earns the bogeyman title for its endless constant rain and gloomyness.

I think what made December so bad even for a Atlantic siege winter month is that it seemed lows and fronts were slower moving than normal resulting in cloud and rain stalling over the U.K plus narrow gaps between lows/fronts. IIRC some Atlantic dominated winter months had okay to good sunshine levels and weren’t as wet. Oct/Nov 2023 despite being Atlantic dominated had a fair few nicer days presumably as lows/fronts ether were faster moving or wider gaps.

At this point I'm mostly enjoying the high pressure despite not getting my snow fix (There was some flurries last evening but it all melted in the sun). Clear blue dome day today which is perfection. Any high pressure is welcome whether it be a big fat Bartlett with 18c and far fetch southerlies from Africa or a Scotland high bringing cold NElys and -2c. Just keep that westerly zonal muck away for a bit at least my local river looked scary high could have been a nasty flood in my area if one more Atlantic low had turned up.

Yesterday was the first day since mid December that didn’t rain at some point in the day. I shan’t miss you rain you outstayed your welcome by Christmas Eve.

lol yes it’s very active in the winter. It’s moderately active in summer but basically dead in the shoulder seasons.

As it seems the model thread is the hot topic I shall give my thoughts on it all. I find it interesting how it all works but if one takes cherrypicked charts at two weeks out as gospel it only leads to disappointment. Two weeks out is often basically Alice in Wonderland levels of surrealism (I recall a GFS FI chart in March showing double digit minus temps for daytime highs) I’ll admit that I don’t quite yet understand fully all the jargon and concepts used there. I’ve learnt a lot from model threads though.

I hope that 2024 is a better year weather wise than 2023. 2023 was a very meh Atlantic dominated year. By the way what do you folks predict Londons high/lows to be in the 2020-2050 series? I’m going to say a Jan of 10/4 an April of 17/9 a Jul of 26/16 and a Oct of 18/11. Similar to modern northern France I think

I will be glad to see some dry weather. We need the rain to stop around here roads are getting flooded and things could get bad if the rain carries on. In the infamous Oct 19-Mar 20 Atlantic hell a village got cut off literally due to flooding near me.

I've wondered how would you guess the SW, Midlands and NE do in SE/NW splits? (I tend to see the NW as NW England, western Scotland, the northern half of Ireland and maybe north Wales and the SE as being anywhere east and south of Oxford) Speaking as someone from the SW they tend to be a mixed bag here we tend to ether join the NW or the SE depending if its a more N/S or W/E split or end up a halfway house with mixed good/poor weather.

Im guessing the jet stream being right over the south led to the poor sunshine for the south and better further north.Reminds me of summer 2021 where the south was getting all the cloud and rain while the north was getting sunshine and summery weather which happened iirc due to a southerly jet and northern blocking.

This year despite having a high CET record hasn't felt that warm overall. It seems more down to lack of any cool/cold rather than heat. 2023 is one of the worse years ever weatherwise for here, only 2012 and 2015 were worse years that I recall. It does show how climate change is affecting climates though as for example July despite being a rainfest with endless cyclonic NWlys managed to somehow scrape a average CET, looking at synoptics for July 2023 I would have guessed a CET in the 14s not 16.1. Heres my rating of this year overall Jan= 5/10 (Awful first half, great 2nd half) Feb= 7.5/10 (Striked me as sunny and dry for Feb, no higher due to lack of wintery weather) Mar= 0/10 (Now a truly foul month) Apr= 4/10 (A lil on the meh side with no real heat or exciting weather) May= 7/10 (First half was pretty average, 2nd half amazing) Jun= 10/10 (A true classic June) Jul= 1.5/10 (Saved from a 0 down to some thundery interest and a few warm sunny days) Aug= 3.5/10 (More meh than truly poor,some scattered nice days but a lot of gloomy meh days) Sept= 6.5/10 (First half was hot and sunny, 2nd half was mixed) Oct= 5.5/10 (Pretty average) Nov= 5/10 (Again pretty bog standard) Dec= 2/10 (Zonal rainfest no lower down to the cold snap early on brining some excitement)

When would you folks say that cloudy and we weather tends to be warmer than sunny weather? For my area I would say Nov-Jan. Oct still has solid day length and solar strength and Feb again higher sun angle and longer days combined with colder sea temps-

Yes I think anyone expecting a 2010 repeat will be disappointed but I would expect some frosts for many and snow for high ground and some northern locations. Don't know much about SSWs but from what I gather they seem more a reroll of the dice than a magic cold bullet. Could end up with a repeat of 2018 or a winter "heatwave" like Feb 2019. Thanks! Its a caracal cat. We both seem to love continental type weather it seems, I've hated the recent weather with a passion mostly for being wet as well as mild. If it'd stayed mild but dry under that Bartlett type set up we had last week I could live with it but the high decided to sink south leading to mild and damp Atlantic weather.

Looking at GFS charts it looks like standard winter fare. Cooler than late with more Pm influence with some possible wet soaking days but Pm air masses does tend to bring more sun between wet days at least for my location. Nothing truly great or awful pretty normal.

What seems odd is that this coming week looks far warmer than average despite a northerly influence to the airmass. We seem to be coming under a rTm airmass if such a thing exists yet still are getting double digit high temps. I would have expected high single figures still a little on the warmer side but it looks more like a direct southerly temps wise.

I have a question what seperates Tm from rPm airmasses weather wise. I know they are tropical maritime and returning polar but they seem to be pretty similar to me rPm seems a slightly cooler version of Tm.

How on earth is it raining at a pressure of 1030 mb? That seems odd even for the U.K. in winter. Nov-Jan in oceanic climates (May-Jul for the NZ and South American oceanic zone) is hell on earth for me. They tend to be polewards of 40 degrees leading to short days and low sun angle, endless rain and gloom and lack of snow. Some continental climates can rival oceanic climates in gloom (Great Lakes and Hokkaido but they at least get a winter)

A little late but Ill make a guess. Mild and dry in winter would suggest a Bartlett pumping up southerlies and blocking Atlantic rain. It can change if the high moves, if it moves north and becomes a UK high things tend to get chillier with less of a southerly feed, move south and it ether ends up in a more northerly pattern or turns into a westerly wet zonal pattern. Basically a Bartlett moving anywhere will ether make for a cooler or wetter or both pattern. The jet stream is more active in winter so its hard for a sustained high to keep itself up.