Catbrainz

Going to Menorca tomorrow for a week so I will have had basically 2 weeks of hot summery weather at the very least. Fingers crossed I come back to some crisp harvest season sunshine and cool moonlight nights. On a side note many people I know dont get that sun angle not temp is what determines sunburn and UV index. A sunny 18c June day at 50N in Cornwall will burn you faster than a 28c sunny day in mid-Sept at 40N in Menorca. Sun angle is 63 degrees at noon for the former and the latter is in the low 50s at noon. In fact to get a similar sun strength to 50N in June youd have to go down to 30N for this time of year.

Going by memory I would say 2012. Three awful boogeyman months (April,June and July) and while March was very good if I recall rightly it just doesn’t hit the same as an outstanding month in late spring or summer.

Regarding talk of cold vs hot. I would say its far easier to get a hot spell than a cold wintery spell for the UK away from the far north and highland areas. Any kind of southerly influence (Apart from cyclonic SWlys giving say 21/17 and rain) in May-Sept can quickly turn pretty warm/hot. Meanwhile to get cold and snow any sort of northerly has to cross a fair bit of sea and easterlies can often turn into more cold and foggy gloomfests than true wintery snowy weather. Hot air can come from Europe which is a large landmass right on our doorstep while cold air from Greenland/Arctic/Scandvania has to cross a lot of water.

Now that would be a dream for sunshine lovers such as myself. A nightmare summer using the past 10 years would be June 2016, July 2023 and August 2015 (Although August 2015 was better further north)

So I averaged out June-August 2022 and 2023 out of curiosity to see if this theoretical summer that would please both summer lovers and heat haters and this is what came up. (Temps and rainfall from Met Office history for Bute Park Cardiff and sunshine is estimated from Met maps) This hybrid summer looks pretty decent apart from a July slightly on the cloudier side. (Would probably fare a fair bit better Augus wise elsewhere as it was still very cloudy in the SW Aug 2023).

This week has been lovely and a strong reminder that summer doesn’t really end until the 3rd week of Sept. I shall do a 2022/2023 hybrid summer later when I have time I think it will come out as a very average summer overall.

A little late to the party was busy with things IRL getting ready for a trip to Spain. June= 10/10, weeks of endless wall to wall sunshine and some thundery spells mid month, nice and warm but not ultra hot meaning pleasant to do outdoor stuff and no hot sweaty nights. A ideal June, heck it would even make for a lovely July. If I had to make a perfect summer June 2023 would be my pick for that years June. June 2018 comes the closest I would say. July= 1.5/10 oh boy what a garbage rubbish trash whatever you call it month. Saved from a 0 for a short spell of sunny warm weather mid month and some thunderstorms early on. Endless cloud, rain and below average temperatures means this goes in the hall of shame alongside delightful classics such as 2007,2009 and 2012. Closest I would say is July 2009 but 2007 and 2012 work too. August= 3.5/10 basically a slightly better version of July. Still quite gloomy and with no real sustained sunshine or summery weather apart from a short lived sunny warm burst mid month but a fair bit more usable days than July had. Would have been a 4 if not for the very poor weather in the last week of August with heavy rain and highs in the low-mid teens. Reminded me most of a slightly warmer August 2017.

The forecast of warmth and sunshine has got me wondering randomly about a repeat of autumn 2011 (Which also followed a naff summer) but on steroids. Something like for the CET zone overall Sept 23/13, Oct 19/9 and Nov 16/7, UK wide highest temp of 37c in Sept, 33c in Oct and 25c in Nov. If something like that happened I would have mixed feelings, Sept and first half of Oct I would take but after mid Oct I do want some chill to start and Nov would be blegh (Still better than a zonal rainfest Nov though). Would probably put the spanner in the works for any early winter chill though due to warmer sea temps.

Given forecasts and modelling September may very well be warmer than July this year. And before anyone slaps me with b-u-t-t-t-t- the CET said July was average that was down to cloud keeping lows higher. A Sept of 21/12 will feel a fair bit warmer than a July of 19/14 even though technically both are the same CET.

Trees started turning here about a week ago a month earlier than normal. Normally you don't see any signs of colour change until late Sept or early Oct around here. Last time I recall leaves turning this early was 2014ish I want to say. This year might be up there for the shortest trees in leaf period as spring had delayed leafing too down to the cloudy and cold March.

Something to do with the equipment they use to measure sunshine which differs from most other countries. Its been mentioned a lot on City Data a site I used to lurk on. Like if one compares a Canadian and American weather station literally miles apart the Canada one is typically a fair bit lower sunshine wise. Detroit and Windsor come to mind. Plus sometimes the sunshine looks unrealistic. Like Boston MA has 150 hours in Jan which is freaky high for a humid coastal climate at 42N. Only Eastern China can match that at 42N to my knowledge and they have a big Siberian winter high.

One I have come across Duluth/Moscow (USA sunshine hours are inflated it seems Duluth probably gets about 2000-2100 a year)

Looking at the GFS 12z high I don't think that's super likely at least for the south (Further north could still be cloudy being near the Iceland low). Cloudy highs are rarer this time of year and it looks to be a straight UK high rather than say a North Sea or Mid Atlantic high,UK highs tend to be pretty decent for sunny settled weather even in winter. I could maybe see some level of cloud at the start with the left over cloud in the airmass and the high having a Atlantic component to start with though.

First time in a while GFS has looked anticyclone dominated both near term and into FI.

I was wondering what a mixture of July 2022 and 2023 would look like so I did a little number work and ended up with this July. (Using data from Bute Park Cardiff although figures for my area are likely slightly different being more inland). July summary High= 22.4c Low= 13.2c Rainfall= 99mm Sunshine= 195 hours (estimated based on Met maps no sun data for Bute Park) Looks like a very average July apart from slightly above rainfall. For past Julys this looks most like July 2017 I would say.

I wonder if June and July had swapped places lets say we had something like June 2012/2016 then a July 2013/2018 then the August we just had this summer would be seen as average rather than poor as a whole. Not up there with the likes of 2006/2018/2022 sure but something like 2014 or 2017 reputation wise. On stats this summer overall doesn't look super poor apart from July but what got myself and others down I presume is a huge chunk of core summer eaten away by garbage weather.

Lets hope the grot goes out to the sea. I'm sure the sea life wont mind cloud and we land dwelllers are happy :P.

Likely a unlucky coincidence but the arctic vortex does start to form about this time of year and with the Arctic crossing over into long night and cooling down any kind of northerly influence can become outright chilly compared to say mid July. Today appears to be a NWly Pm airmass from Greenland which is a fair bit cooler than it would be in high summer.

Looking at the cloud radar most of Europe is cloudy/overcast except for Central Iberia southwards, Balkans and Ukraine. This got me wondering randomly what factors make Europe cloudy away from the Med that I am missing. I would say from what I can see being surrounded by sea on 3 sides (Basically a peninsula of Eurasia), exposed to the Atlantic during any kind of westerly be it Swly, Wly or NWly, no north/south mountain chains to block Atlantic cloud and rain (No natural barriers for rain and cloud between the Atlantic and the Urals) and the high latitude with a large chunk of Europe being north of 45N meaning lower sun angle and shorter days in the winter so less cloud burn off. Compare to say North America which has overall higher sunshine away from the Great Lakes, Atlantic Canada and west coast north of say Eureka CA, they have the Rockies and Cascades to block cloudy Pacific airmasses from going over the landmass and more land overall around rather than sea. Winnipeg has 2350 sunshine hours a year while Ukraine at a similar latitude and distance from the sea has about 1800-2000 a year. If there was no Rockies Winnipeg would probably have about 1800-1900 sunshine hours a year.

Looking like CET will be in the mid or high 16s when August finishes. Pretty close to my prediction of 17c although my rainfall prediction is likely a fair bit too low.

(Hopefully this is the right place to post this thread) Basically post two or more climates from around the world that are very similar climatically (Doenst have to be 100% but a typical year in each would feel very similar). Lets say they have to be at least 3000 miles apart or so to avoid say putting London/Amsterdam, New York/Philly and so on. Ill start with one Ketchikan Alaska/ Fort William Scotland (No sunshine but I would estimate both get about 1200-1300 a year)

Looking at charts it seems northern blocking to the NW has collapsed. This could be a double edged sword, on the one hand it can allow highs to move in from the Atlantic instead of getting stuck over Greenland and quiet the jetstream down a little but on the other hand it could open the UK up to lows moving down from Greenland/Iceland esp for the north.

There has been some woodland planted in the mountains near me but funny enough there are a fair few trees from Western North America and Scandvania like redwoods, Colorado Blue spruces and Norway spruces albeit with the odd Scots Pine thrown in. I do wish our country had forests, would make scenery better and even in gloomy weather it has what I would describe as a Burtonish gloom, gloomy but in a pretty way rather than depressing. Plus more shelter from rain on nature walks

Similar case here in the Welsh upland areas it would seem. Lots of sheep farmers around here and I imagine a lot of woodland was cut down for industry/farming in the 1800s (Hardly anyone lived around here until the Industrial era. I'm wondering what do they mean when they say unspoilt?

I know not a weather related observation as such but I have noticed that upland areas of the UK are often treeless looking more like a Icelandic tundra when areas with similar climate and landscapes elsewhere have lush rainwoodlands such as Western Norway, coastal Alaska, British Colombia, western Washington state and southern New Zeeland. Typical highland UK scenery Ketchikan Alaska (Which has a climate basically identical to Fort William Scotland, I would estimate sunshine hours to be about 1200-1300 per year for this place)