Catbrainz

That's not 100% unrealistic. You'd need a big blocking Euro high centred over the Alps/Balkans bringing anticyclonic southerlies and southeasterlies . Not a winter id rate super highly but it'd be better than say mild zonal westerlies.

It seems going by models and forecasts that July is likely the coolest summer month this year. I wonder if it’s happened before. Wouldn’t be too shocked to see a Sept with a higher average high than July (CET will be lower due to longer nights)

I hope we never see a repeat of July 2023 ever ever ever again. I can cope with short lived unsettled spells in summer and it can bring some spice and interest to a month and stop things looking too yellow (Despite rumors not every summer lover needs 400+ sunshine hours and 0mm rainfall). But weeks of highs in the teens, endless rain and cloud would be deemed bad in October yet alone July.

What are the best and worse of each summer month (Feel free to do May or Sept as both can sort of count as summer especially for the south). It seems i am younger than most here only being mid-late 20s so less years to draw from :P. I feel like a young one when folks talk about recalling years from the 70s,80s and 90s :P. Best of each summer month May 2020 Jun 2023 Jul 2018 (Although 2013 is another underrated contender in my opinion) Aug 2022 Sept 2020 Worse of each summer month May 2021 June 2012 July 2007 or 2023 (2007 is wetter and cooler but a little sunnier going by Met data for my area, both dreadful though),2012 despite being a bogeyman memey poor summer month did improve a little towards the end) Aug 2008 Sept 2017 On a weather related note yesterday went to Cardiff Bay yesterday. Started off hot and sunny but clouded over about 3pm and ironically felt warmer with how humid it got. Today is a pretty bog standard summer day. Sunny spells and 21-22c. Got pretty infilly earlier but its cleared a little now. I'm shocked that infill wasn't too bad considering how much moisture the soil and ground has from July.

Has there ever been any sandwich seasons before? i.e a poor 1st and poor 3rd but a good 2nd or a good 1st and good 3rd but poor middle (Like say a good Sept and good Nov but poor Oct for a sandwich autumn). The cloeast that comes to mind is last winter actually to a degree. Good 2/3rds of Dec, poor last 1/3rd of Dec and poor first half of Jan then 2nd half of Jan and Feb were decent at least for my location. On another note I get annoyed when the media overreacts to the weather forecasting. Like calling a heatwave for 25c in the south or a cold snap in winter because a Scottish peak got snow.

I think with a warming climate I can see 40c being reached somewhere in the UK between late June and mid August. Earlier in June the seas tends to be colder moderating any heat and later in August longer nights and lower sun angle supresses highs. This debate has got me curious what the highest possible temperature is in each month for the UK given the hottest possible set ups with a warmer climate. I would guess the earliest possible 30c would be mid April and latest 30c mid October. Earliest possible 25c mid March and latest 25c early-mid November. 20c is likely possible even in Jan under far fetch southerlies with a Fohn effect somewhere in Wales or Scotland.

If I had to compare this summer to other years I would say the following June= July 2013 (Anticylonic and settled bringing lots of warmth, sunshine and dry weather but not super plumely) July= June 2012 (Endless wet, overcast and cool cyclonic pattern I at least recall July 2012 improving a little the 2nd half) August= Early days yet but forecasts and models seem to suggest a warmer version of August 2017. Pretty average with a mix of settled and unsettled weather. Could turn out totally different.

Weather was lovely here today. Sunny morning then it did cloud over and was overcast for an hour or so 12-1 but cleared back up to a sunny afternoon/evening. Temp reached 26c here according to my thermometer.

I know a silly newbie question but may someone explain to me what has caused a very poor July. From my understanding it was caused by northern blocking driving the jet stream south giving cyclonic NWles and a stagnant pressure set up trapping the U.K. under a low. March this year seemed to also have a similar set up northern blocking firing up the jet.also what’s the main synoptic recipe for good and poor summers for the UK

London is more inland while Manchester is nearer to the coast and I would imagine Manchester would be more exposed to warm westerlies/south westerlies and in this warming world could make for ultra mild winter nights (Dec 2015 being a extreme example with double digit highs at night) for the UK)5. Could shave a degree off Manchester though to be fair.

Regarding talk of the UK becoming a Med climate in years to come. I don't think it will go quite that far I don't think it will be anything like say LA,Perth Australia or Barcelona (As one BBC article claimed). I can see a Bordeaux/Portland Oregon type climate for the South, Midlands being similar to present day Northern France and Northern England/Scotland looking like todays southern England though. Maybe something like this for the 2nd half of this century temp wise (Assuming no runaway global warming happens) London Jan= 10/4 April= 17/9 Jul= 26/16 Oct= 18/11 Cardiff Jan= 11/5 Apr= 16/9 Jul= 24/16 Oct= 18/12 Edinburgh Jan= 8/3 Apr= 14/8 Jul= 23/13 Oct= 16/9 Manchester Jan= 10/5 Apr= 15/8 Jul= 24/15 Oct= 17/10

Ive had the reverse happen too days that look terrible if you look at synoptic charts but turn out to be nice fine days. I can recall sometimes getting wall to wall sunshine and dry weather for a day or two under a deep Atlantic low. Case in example for my area it looked poorer synoptically the other day if I recall rightly with a more westerly cyclonic sway it was cloudy in the morning but cleared up in the afternoon to a blue dome sky that evening.

Why is today such a poor day here? Synoptically you'd expect something warmer and drier going by this for my area something like 21c and partly sunny not 17c and light rain with that medium pressure and Swly influence. Any real low pressure is way to the north or out in the Atlantic. Even more confusing it seems northern areas of England are enjoying sunshine despite being closer to that big fat low over Northern Scotland/Southern Scandinavia. (Never mind I know why now seems to be a front over the south hence the rain)

Please forgive me if I am depressing this sort of weather gets me in a foul mood. I should be able to enjoy my outdoor hobbies this time of year such as hiking in fine weather not sat indoors staring at a grey sky while it pours with rain. Suppose I could take up depressive poetry, Poetry about "summer" 2023 would make those grim famous German thinkers look like a sugary Satuaday morning cartoon.

I really hope GFS 18z is a rouge run. That low just hangs around the UK. I cant take another month of crud. Like i would be happy if we got a 2004/2012 repeat but god sakes dont inflict a 2008 August sequel!

What are some examples of synoptic set ups that are good certain times of the year and bad other times of the year? Bartlett highs come to mind they are a dream summer set up especially for the south although northern areas can benefit too if they don’t end up outside the high but are a winter killer. Greenland highs come to mind too for a winter dream but a summer killer.

I have read that thread. I used to lurk a lot on City Data when it was more active and often read the climate/weather sub section. Some of the threads were downright bizarre but fun to read like Rate Stereotypical X city climate or "Would Australia's climate be better if they had a Alps style mountain chain running north/south". (Not real threads just the gist of what they could be).

Not in the SW of England but as a fellow resident of the SW geographical area of the UK (I get the same weather as Somerset and Bristol area being only about 20 miles away) I hope so too :P. We tend to get a mixture of the two types of weather I find in those kinds of set ups. SE/NW splits tend to bring sunny days with some more unsettled showery days mixed in if my memory serves correctly.

Being at 46N and in the middle of a continent keeps prolonged cool summer weather at bay. A close match for Estonia in North America apart from Dulthu ofc would be Marquette Michigan or even somewhere high up in the Appalachians and if we look worldwide I could see somewhere in Hokkaido coming close too, May I have a link to that thread I love finding climate twins across the world . The closest climate to me in North America would be somewhere in NW Washington or BC Canada for sure. Feel free to share similar climates between North America and Europe with me id love that.

I could see upper 30s or lower 40s for the areas in dark red

The evenings are getting darker compared to what they were a few weeks ago. It was fully dark by about 10pm for my area I can now tell the days are getting shorter which isnt fully bad. I like daylengths between say 10 and 14 hours long. Long enough to enjoy some solid daylight but also some cozy darkness later in the day.

I found somewhere that's getting a pretty dross filled forecast (apart from the few first days) that's not in the UK :p. I do quite like Duluth's climate though nice snowy winters and summers that are pleasantly warm and with varied sun and convective seeming rainfall. Only downside is cold springs though.

Turned out to be a lovely evening for the dog walk. it cleared up through the afternoon after a cloudy morning and was clear blue skies by about 5. Felt like I was in a dream walking in sunshine and blue skies lol.

Not a bad day today. A bit more cloud than id like but at least there are sunny spells. Feeling like a settled mid-late September day with the sub 20c temps still which is an improvement over feeling like a cyclonic November day I suppose :P.

I have worn shorts in colder temps than that when I have a workout/gym day and just need to pop out on a quick errand. I do at least throw a hoodie/jacket on though