Catbrainz

Do you folks have any ways on how to predict how much infill a day will have? It seems even weather forecasting has trouble to be honest but I would guess things like how humid the airmass is, how much moisture the ground has and how high pressure is. Ironically if this BBC video is accurate high pressure leads to infill as it means clouds spread out instead of rising up. Today we had a mild level of infill from 11am to 3pm, it didn't cloud over but it did form patchy cloud.

Somewhat less infilly than yesterday where it was cloudy from 11 to 2 although cleared up fully by 3ish. I would guess less moisture in the ground and a drier airmass is leading to less infill.

I agree. I know I moaned a lot about July lol and it was dreadful but on a whole this summer isn't quite as bad as 2007 or 2012 (Nether had any good months), What got to me and others was a large sum of the core summer period (which I see as mid June to mid August) being eaten away by poor weather. This summer would be seen as a fair bit better if say first 3 weeks of June was crud then the high summer period was wall to wall sunshine and warm then the 2nd half of August was poor. Still 5-6 weeks of crud but at least its away from core summer.

Its a caracal cat. Often nicknamed floppas for their floppy large ears. Sometimes kept as a exotic wild cat pet and are closely related to housecats.

GFS is showing a northerly in FI. Please no northerlies until mid October at the earliest.

That would be a notably cloudy July 1st/mid Aug period for Western Scotland/Bergen let alone southern England

I know two weeks left in August and I don't consider summer over personally until the equinox but I shall do a Jun-Aug review Jun is a 10/10, wall to wall sunshine and warm highs with cool nights meaning that its perfect for outdoor activity and also stops the house getting too hot. Jul is a 0/10, up there with 2007 for that sheer awfulness of below average temps, above average rainfall and below average sunshine. So bad that it would be a below average July even for Bergen for my location. (I actually did the maths not exaggerating.). Will be a meme to depress and scare like July 2007 and 2012, "Hey this model run/forecast looks like July 2023" *Screaming* Aug so far is a 4/10, a pretty meh but not dreadful month, some warm sunny setttled days but also some claggy drizzly days or infilly days guess all the moisture left over from July 2023 is leading to convective infill, forecasting for the next week could bump it up to a 5 or 6.

Possibly the first nice weekend in a very long time, hopefully whatever godly force cursed the UK to have poor weather weekends has gotten bored of tormenting us.

Makes sense you'd get a quick fall from summer to winter with the high latitude of 57-60N, rapidly shortening days and being pretty close to a ultra large cold landmass to your east. I must say Estonia has a far better climate than Scottish climates at a similar latitude. September and October are better here but I would take your November over a November here, November here is overcast most days too but with highs in the 10-13c range and with that claggy humidity.

That scenario sounds like Oct 19-Mar 20. 5 months of horrid weather with endless rain.

Charts are showing a big low stalling out in the Atlantic west of Ireland for the next week. Wonder if we could get a rather tropical feeling muggy and humid spell with southerlies and the wet ground

It’s hard to get a below average CET in summer these days it seems.Even July somehow scraped by just below despite being dominated by cyclonic NWles which aren’t exactly known for above average night temps along with highly suppressed highs. If you gave me the GFS chart archive for July just gone I would have guessed a CET in the mid or high 14s not 16 odd going by synoptics.

August so far for my area has been more meh than awful like July. I’ve had some sunnier days (Wens-Fri was decent here and Saturday was meh but not an unusable washout)and even the poor days have been usable if gloomy (apart from last night and this morning). Still not brilliant and below par. This Aug has shades of 2017 from what I recall.

I am guessing August will be in the high 16s/low 17s for CET so far.

What separates a Bartlett,Euro and Sceuro high? I have seem those terms thrown around here and while I know a Bartlett means a high over Europe bringing southerlies, a popular summer synoptic but not in the winter :P. Euro seems it could be another term for a Bartlett but I couldn't find anything on the Sceuro high. What kind of weather does it lead too?

The reason for more colds being around is simple. The poor weather means more people indoors like you are more likely to catch a cold at a cinema or restaurant than at the beach or out hiking.

Normally my dream October is a seasonal one with mid teens and varied weather with a few frosts towards the end but I wont complain this year if we get a repeat of Oct 2011. Id take that over a zonal rainfest like Oct 2019 after a poor spring and poor July. I do agree that a Azores dominated pattern is a waste after about the equinox though and then the Azores high can bugger off after Halloween until April next year to let northerlies have a chance at wintery weather. The Azores high is a bit like salt you want it on your chips (summer) but not in youir tea (winter).

Knowing how wonky the UK climate can be at times, I wouldn't be shocked to see a mega Azores high sticking over the UK for October. This sort of happened in 2011 after a meh summer (Cool but not overly wet or cloudy from both memory and Met anomaly maps apart from August) October had a heatwave, (Well a heatwave for October) with mid 20s highs. I would have mixed feelings about that. On the one hand it would help shorten the cool and dark season and allow for some last minute outdoor activities before the winter but on the other hand there would be a sense of missing out like this could have happened a month or two earlier and delivered far warmer weather.

Exactly. If a summer is going to be a low pressure fest at least make it a stormy and convective thundery affair with a strong trend towards southerlies rather than endless rainy overcast frontal systems from the NW and W.

I never expected the modelled heatwave to come off. I tend to not get too excited for something juicy be it a heatwave, a snowfest or a thundery spell on the models unless its at least 4-5 days away as models cant predict even a weeks away. Likewise for a poor model run, I don't get too worried about a big fat low over the UK unless its at least 4-5 days away as well, optimism and pessimism can both be as unrealistic as each other. This week looks pretty decent for my area at least. So far the weekend low looks like it will stay west of the UK out in the Atlantic not right on top of the UK so fingers crossed it stays there and that we get a decent weekend for once. (Not trying to dismiss or mock anyone unhappy with the current modelling, you all are perfectly entitled to feel the way you do after a very poor July and I understand fully the frustration with half a dozen poor weekends on the trot).

According to the Met Office it was the hottest August BH. August 2004 also pops to mind for how this Aug could turn out (Not that I personally remember the month very well going by Met data mostly)

What past August do you folks think this August will resemble most? I am guessing going by modelling and forecasts something like Aug 2019.

Looking at GFS 12z, pressure rebuilding this week after the low to the NW of Scotland fizzles out looks pretty benign for the week coming overall before a low reaches just off Ireland next weekend (Weekends and lows this year lol) but it stalls just west of Ireland and goes north,this also happens on GFS 6z. Could be a wet,warm and thundery affair for the UK with the low pumping up southerlies. A N/S split seems to show itself but that's going into FI.

It seems despite being pretty far apart distance wise on opposite sides of Europe we seem to get similar set ups about 70% of the time or so. We both had a good May 2018,good Julys in 2014 and 2018 and good August 2022s. June 2021 here was pretty average though nothing to write home about nether great nor dreadful September wise 2018 was pretty average and 2020 was good but not outstandly so. May 2020 was a lovely month here but May 2021 we both had a very poor May. May 2022 was a little on the poor side but not dreadful. June 2012 was dreadful for us both but June 2017 here was average, Julys 2015 and 2017 were on the poor side but not dreadful. July 2019 was decent and we both had pretty poor July 2020s. Both had dreadful July 2023s. August 2012 was pretty meh but seemed good compared to June/July 2012, August 2016 was average and August 2021 was a poor one but in a odd way very anticyclonic gloomy which is odd for summer with a North Sea high (A synoptic that I hate seeing all year even in winter as it brings foggy anticylonic gloom without much snow) bringing cloud and chilly winds from the NE. September 2021 was very warm here but otherwise didnt stand out and Sept 2022 was on the poor side.

Today is a lovely day……..for a summer 2023 weekend. Cloudy with occasional sunny spells but at least it’s usable if somewhat meh. At least it’s not pouring with rain with a 50mph wind in classic 2023 Saturday style