Catbrainz

Anyone who says that July 2023 was average is ether lying, thinks the UK has the climate of Bergen,trolling or deluded. The objective data is right in front of you with below average highs, below average sunshine and above average rainfall.

I think the best kind of winter to reduce energy bills would be a Euro ridge/Bartlett high centred over central Europe with southerlies or southeasterlies. Mild without the damp and wet that cyclonic southwesterlies bring. Not a winter I’d aspire for myself as a snow lover but better that than mild zonallty

You are welcome. It had the horrid trio of below average highs, above average rainfall and below average sunshine. Having two of those is bad enough let alone three.

GFS 12z while not suggesting weeks of dry wall to wall sunshine with that westerly influence and weak lows crossing the UK at least looks way better than July 2023 did. For one the UK isn't stuck under a northerly trough, no deep lows, pressure seems higher overall with 1010s and even some 1020s and the jet stream looks more fragmented and not right on top of the UK. Im thinking August so far will be a drier August 2004. Not a classic but pretty average.

Cant wait for next week. The weather this high summer has been like having a Harry Potter Dementor attached to you. Just depressing and pointless and frustrating.

What makes a Greenland high a summer killer but a winter dream? I would guess that it makes northerlies more likely and blocks warm air please correct me if I am wrong

I can see why 2012 comes to mind for you (Assuming you lived in Nottingham at that time as well). It wasn't terrible around here on the cool side but not overly wet and cloudy but it looked like a washout for the northern Midlands and NW England)

Using post 2010 months I shall set up a dream summer and a nightmare bogeyman summer (May-Sept as May and Sept can arguably be part of the summer period at least for the south) Heavenly dream summer May 2020 Jun 2023 Jul 2018 Aug 2022 Sept 2014 (Looking at maps seems the eastern folks would disagree with that it was lovely for here though Nightmare bogeyman summer May 2021 Jun 2012 Jul 2023 Aug 2015 or 2021 (Cant recall any really dire Augusts but those were both meh being cloudy and below average highs) Sept 2017 (Again not many dire Septs I can recall but this comes to mind for the worse post 2010)

Gotta love a bit of Tory sleaze and crap making its way to our beaches. The Tories have this Midas effect where everything they touch turns to flaming trash. Forgive this political rant but we have some of the best beaches and nature in the world and they are willing to let water companies tarnish all that just to save money. Went to Swansea Beach a few weeks back and the place stank really put a damper on that day. If they ruin the Gower beach ugh

Forgive me for asking a uninformed question but what weather conditions would one expect under a far fetch southerly for mid winter. Like straight from North Africa not a Atlantic flavored SWly or a continental flavoured SEly.

The classical 4 seasons model only applies for continental climates like Eastern Europe, Eastern North America, NE Asia and such in my opinion

I really wish the UK was just 5 degrees further south the summers would be way better. I think itd look something like this (assuming we were still an island climate) Cardiff at 46N Jun= 23/13 40mm 253 hrs Jul= 25/15 26mm 301 hrs Aug= 25/15 31mm 258 hrs London at 46N Jun= 24/15 24mm 278 hrs Jul= 27/16 17mm 314 hrs Aug= 27/16 20mm 279 hrs Manchester at 48N Jun= 22/13 44mm 239 hrs Jul= 25/15 39mm 278 hrs Aug= 24/15 45mm 248 hrs Edinburgh at 51N Jun= 21/13 55mm 209 hrs Jul= 24/15 49mm 242 hrs Aug= 24/14 53mm 229 hrs Aberdeen at 52N (I think itd be sunnier and drier than the real Eastern England at 52N due to Highlands blocking westerly air) Jun= 19/13 51mm 223 hrs Jul= 23/15 44mm 262 hrs Aug= 22/15 55mm 239 hrs Only downside would be that outside of the Scottish Highlands we would wave goodbye to any snow and wintery weather.

For my area I think a July would look like this compared to other places. Dreadful July= Bergen or Siktia Alaska Poor July= Tofino BC or Edinburgh Average= Well here Good July= Seattle,Nantes or Paris Outstanding July= Portland Oregon or Bordeaux Its funny the way folks talk about Portland you'd think it was some Reykjavik type climate when it has a climate similar to Bordeaux or Genona.

I wonder how far ahead on weather models do you folks deem as reliable. For me I tend to deem first 4-5 days as pretty nailed on, 5-7 can start to get a lil shaky, 7-14 I tend to take not much notice unless its a consistent trend over a few runs or has strong cross model support and anything beyond 14 days is pure fantasy island.

I hate getting a poor winter or summer more than a poor shoulder season. 14c and heavy rain in April or October is annoying but 14c and heavy rain in Jan or Jul is depressing as I feel I am missing out on seasonal and fun weather

Comparing my July with an average Bergen July this came out. Temps Here 2023= 20.6/13.1 Bergen= 19.1/12.2 Rainfall Here 2023= 185mm Bergen= 151.1mm Sunshine Here 2023= No sunshine data for my area but going by Met office abnormality map id estimate around 140 hours. Bergen= 167 (Although this is suppressed by local terrain it seems 180-190 might be more realistic) Bonus sunshine % calulations For here 2023= 140/499.1= 0.28. Yes a measly 28% sunshine. For Bergen= 167/561= 0.30. 30% possible sunshine. Folks we have it this July was so bad that it would be a slightly below par July in Bergen sunshine and rainfall wise and this is impressive as I am a good 10 degrees further south and less exposed to Atlantic weather.

Looking at Met map anomaly maps July 2023 is a clone of 2007 and 2012.

This horrid spell of weather has lasted longer than Truss as PM lol.

Makes July 2023 look like the summer of 2018 lol.

Really hoping for a hurricane/tropical system to knock the jetstream about just to have a chance out of this rut.

I hate it when weather forecasters call prolonged poor weather changeable. Changeable to me suggests that there's a variety of weather on offer not just rain, cloud and cool supressed highs. An example of a forecast id deem changable Mon= 24/14 sunny Tue= 19/12 heavy rain Wed= 21/14 sunny showers Thur= 27/15 sunny Fri= 23/16 thunderstorms NOT Mon= 19/13 drizzle Tue= 17/13 heavy rain Wed= 18/10 overcast Thur= 18/11 light rain Fri= 18/12 drizzle

What latitude would you all say that good realisable summer weather starts in Western Europe? I’d say south of 44-45N or so. Obviously could differ based on local geography and such.

Forgive my climate nerd ramblings but I think what makes Europe north of 44-45N or so cloudy is the mixture of high latitude, being surrounded by seas on three sides and no north/south mountain ranges to block Atlantic air/systems meaning cloud can go pretty deep into Europe. After all no barriers at all between the Atlantic and the Urals for cloud and rain.

(I must say I am not a chart reading expert yet he he he) GFS charts lately seem to be trending to a more westerly flat pattern. While not amazing still its better than being stuck under a northerly trough and stagnant lows like most of July was and it seems less cyclonic as well. More mobile weather meaning rain and cloud hangs around less and more chances at some bursts of higher pressure. Could be a N/S divide though depending on how far north the flat pattern goes.