law of averages

Yes sleety gulf stream, more than anything controls our climate... that's why there are palm trees or was in Ayr, Torquay and southern Ireland... it's what drives our climate more than anything else and drove our weather long before climate change/GW

I respect the catacols, gps, tamaras, Steve Murrs on this site, they know more than I could ever know but since 2007, they've felt more like the winter's of the late 60s early 70s I was only young but what i remembered then, are similar now.. so if that's not pattern related I don't know what is. And beatpete... there asnt been a summer like 76, if your old enough or born in that era you would remember but if not... you have to use a base year for you, mine is 76!! Like I can't use 78, 81 or 2010 as a winter to hold against 47 or 63... because they're not in the same ball park... but 2010 was a good one around here... but an holy trail winter might be around the corner, who knows... I hope

Sorry met office, HAHAHA... Yes 25/30yrs is not wrong, hardly any if at all snow is not wrong in my neck of woods at the foot of the pennies in Shaw Oldham and that's late 70s early 80s till 2007 and we've had more in that period since 2007!! One part of climate change/GW... if the lungs of the earth the rainforests of South America, Africa over to Asia if they have had an effect, what about the VAST FORESTS of Russia, Canada and maybe Sweden, Norway, Finland that have been cut down in the last 50yrs or so wouldn't that have an effect on the arctic into EUROPE and UK... were once stood VAST wind breakers that sent winds etc into the arctic or into EUROPE, just a thought... it may have What about the Antarctic... hardly any melted, in fact it's grown in some parts, is that climate change/gw

As you say, no evidence... 30yrs is not a long time!! It's long time in our terms but not in how long the earth as been around?? So And in what history we can read ( not met they only use the last 100 or so ), very similar patterns seem to be there... long periods without cold/snow including the little ice age and Dickensian winter's wernt all like the Christmases he portraits... so what those believe in, we've done more in only 100yrs?? Not having that, SORRY

Oh and 99% of what I've read... say not, so I'd 50% agree, 50% don't agree or a bit less

Yes I understand the sea ice, I've looked... but even that peaked, so it should going back up!! Like I said things I've read, say it peaked 12yrs ago... so the retreat may, MAY have stopped?? And again it's patterns... how far can we go back about 100yrs, to look!! So if it as peaked, it'll gradually come back... so if we're about to go back in solar minimum, it should come back... plus it's not going to be the same every WINTER etc, even in winter's say 200yrs plus ago it must have been similar or even worse... even this generation wouldn't know and wouldn't all that fresh water have an effect on us, not just else where in the North hemisphere... plus if you believe in GW or climate change that's your choice, I don't... we all have opinions right or wrong Ged

I love this site and it's forums... but there's a few things that get my BILLY ( goat for those that don't understand, lol )... those who say the reason we don't get winter's like we used to, because of global warming!! Haha, it's not real... even the scientists argue and doubt each other and if it is true ( yawn ) didn't it peak about 12yrs ago, again according to the scientists?? We went nearly 25/30yrs with hardly any SNOW, with one scientist saying before 2007 will we SNOW in UK/ EUROPE again, LMAO what an an idiot... it's what the weather does, what history we can read about weather... like on here, tells us it's patterns but since 2007 we've had a good run as for cold n snow... which isn't to bad and 2009, 2010, 2017 so far seem like the winter's of 70s... time will tell 2nd... those who say on MOD, that the next 2wks are set in stone... what a load of codswallop, what a chart shows today, say for 5days away if it's 75% correct... I'll eat my hat but it won't be... like the beginning of last wk around the 19th, wasn't showing this cold spell that's here till Saturday at the least... every chart needs to be taken with a pinch of salt... if a chart shows something of interest, I'd say for 3days away and no more... compare the 2 and the difference will be more than 50%... before wkd gone, my neck of woods was in the sweet spot for snow, by Xmas day... it was Midlands and we got sleet at the most, sigh... people can't take each chart as being right... just a thought And 3rdly... those who say WINTER is over ( mostly mildies ), pathetic... we are hardly into it, so how can it be over... who knows what the next few wks/months will bring... just remember like my name, law of averages say records will be broken, whether COLD or mild P.s... on global warming, yawn... I've mentioned this before, a professor John Hanson of NASA in the 70s called for global cooling and by the 80s was saying global warming?? Strange... also what's strange is, does global warming only affect EUROPE... what about North America, must be global cooling over there!! And we've not had a summer like 76, if my memory is right went from the beginning of May till the beginning of October... nothing like it since P.s.s... those who believe in GW... need to check what the yanks do with haarp or harrp lol... that's more believable

Maybe this winter hasn't been one we wanted, for coldies...as in SNOW!! but it as been COLD, even VERY COLD at times...it as been like a 70's winter to me, COLD n DRY!! with hardly any SNOW...only mild spell was around Xmas but cold yes, for several days now...VERY COLD!! I can take the cold, it doesn't normally bother me... but even i know when its cold!! And it's supposed to be mild this wk, I don't see it...this winter as been one of the strangest I've known...some serious let downs as in brutal cold n snow, like parts of central/east/south eastern europe has experienced...but also very rarely mild ( and I don't think it's going get any where near as mild, like some think )...so I'd say 6 out of 10 this winter for me and still time to get a 7 or 8, if the end of feb or march come good...and the coming yrs might bring the holy grail...the last ten yrs much better than the previous 25yrs plus for me

Well I wouldn't argue with that, but if you read the summaries and that's all they are.. from what you can read about them, they are very similar patterns what we've had over the last 100yrs or more...a lot of mild winters with rain, cold n dry winters etc...even gaps of 20yrs plus of no snow, so I can only see patterns from what I've read...47 to 63 is 16yrs, 63 to 78 is 15 yrs... I was 5 in 1970 and remember my 1st snow, I'm not saying the 5 previous didn't get snow but I remember the ones after being cold n dry with little snow till 78...I could be proved wrong on this but for the area I live that cold be right...I've wrote somewhere else about this and 1900ish to 1940ish was warming cycle, 1940ish to 1980ish was a cooling cycle 1980ish to 2020ish warming cycle...so if they're not patterns, well I'm a monkies uncle and 40 to 80 would be correct for at least 3 key winters...even Hitler asked his key weather forecasters about RUSSIAN MILD WINTERS and looked what happened there ( watched a programme about that, but can't remember how long ago )... all i can say whether people agree or not its there for all to see n read for unique part of Europe....only time will tell if we get the holy grail of winters but aren't we supposed to be going into a cooling cycle, regards solar activity?? Ps...1976 was hottest and longest summer I remember

Sorry I won't post anymore after this one about this subject...in terms of yrs, length of?? I'm referring to hundreds of yrs...I can't remember if it's the weather history here on netweather or else were!! But it went back to the 1600's and there is without doubt patterns, for all to see...and they were coming out of the mini ice age effect!! The volcano that gave the yr, without a summer...GLOBALLY and DICKEN'S winters weren't all the christmas postcard effect, he as in his novels but from what he remembered as a child...from what I've read about him!! That wasn't global warming

How can it be GW??...when for the last few weeks/months, vast majority of EUROPE...even ASIA...and at less frequent times ( for a change the ) USA has been in a deep...even brutal cold!! We are in a unique position in the north Atlantic that's in the path of the jet stream, which dictates for at least the best part of our weather!! It as without question, to me anyway...this winter as been cold, even very cold ( like yesterday and today ) at times!! And as felt like a 70's winter, as in cold n dry...90% including me want SNOW and the holy grail winter, like 47, 63, 78 and Dec 2010...but for me it's patterns and ONE will happen sooner or later... that's without question!! Before 2007, a professor said on TV programme...would the uk/western Europe ever see SNOW again...( what an idiot ) we've had more in the last 10yrs...than in the 25/30yrs before 2007...I'm no were near as knowledgeable as the TAMARA's, STE MURR's, TEITS, GP and BB62/63 in this forum world ( 1% I'd say, if that...I mean me ) but from what weather history we have to read about, it's patterns all the way...there were mild, very mild, cold, very cold, xtreme heat to brutal cold...so they went through the same...even the above winters had mild or mildish winters before and after...so one will happen, it's the WHEN!! we can't PREDICT No matter the weather, it's good reading and learning on here...and no one including the professionals...NO WHAT'S ON THE HORIZON!! Especially this winter

Yes for sure...I do suggest we will have a decent/XCELLENT winter before 2020... Couldn't resist

I've not seen the weather forecast since 1am, last night...and unless there's been a MASSIVE DOWNGRADE!! Tomasz on BBC week ahead, said the coming easterly was here well into next wks at least...yet because the ECM, isn't playing the same tune!! It's correct?? I've read what bb62/63, steam murr and tamaras XCELLENT posts say and they look spot on...even bb62/63 thinks only a blip if that!! All 3, ecm, gfs n ukmo...seem at odds with each other...this coming weekend should provide a better understanding...it still looks good for coldies, been said time after time don't look more than 3days ahead, if that!!...unless your one of the more knowledgeable like the above Ps... I wonder what GP, thinks...not seen any of his posts for sometime ( unless I've missed then?? ) he's another poster whose up there with above 3

Irlam...isn't to far from Oldham and to be honest it's been cold/very cold for sometime here, I work outside half of the working day and get called summat rotten for only wearing a t-shirt at work ...while my work mates are wrapped up like polar bears ...so I'd say no to mild, it's been cold, it's been more like a 70's-ish style winter...than we've had for some time...as in cold n dry!! Just needed to point this out!!

" everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts "

People bang on about not being COLD, well to me this winter so far feels like a 70's winter in that it's cold n dry ( better than the dross we had last yrs )...and not much if any snow but it is cold and been very cold at times and is expected to stay cold for the foreseeable...and only expected to be mild than it is now, when or if the pattern changes!! Some have even mentioned global warming?? ( I've never been convinced about it at all )... is the deep n brutal cold, snow in europe down to north africa down to global warming, NO!! Some of you who've said this must be below the age of 35/40yrs...because the summer of 1976 was the hottest and longest summer I can remember... and since 2007 we've had more cold n snow winters, than the last 25/30yrs combined...on global warming it as supposedly peaked 10yrs ago and I am more inclined to believe in patterns, in what weather patterns from what bits of history we are able to read...similar patterns are there for all to see, mild winters, cold winters, very mild winters and even brutal cold winters to our shores...we all know because of the jet stream we are in mild climate ( ie palm trees in ayr, torquay and west coast of eire...should tell us that it's mild ) but there's no rulebook to our weather but patterns...I read an article recently that 1900s ish to 1940s ish was a warm pattern, 1940s ish to 1980s ish was a cool pattern...so if it was to follow 1980s ish to 2020s ish should be a warm pattern which we've been through...a dr/professor John Hansen of nasa said in the 1970s he expected global cooling but by the 80s he changed to global warming, I wonder if, if he's still alive...what he thinks now!! Also another article I read on the BBC said artic sea ice hadn't changed at all in the last 100yrs!! People have there own opinions...and I'm in no doubt some will say a lot against what I've wrote here...but I do think patterns are there!! only time will tell Also we know the weather can and will change at the drop of an hat...so the charts at the moment don't show cold n snow that some including myself crave...there's plenty winter left yet...Feb is usually the coldest month, maybe just maybe the SSW will help and play ball...nobody can say weeks on end are going to mild or cold because a chart is computer generated, so those who are more a lot more knowledgeable than myself...please don't read to much in them, 2 or 3 days down the line won't be the same as they show today Just my thoughts on this great forum Ps don't know why the quote box is there??

I won't drag this out but from I remember of the tweet by Joe b...he was referring to the WEST COAST STATES being cold and WESTERN EUROPE being either cold or very cold at the same time, as if the western side of the states cold was being pushed into siberia and the cold there being pushed into eastern europe, into mainland Europe!! Not tother way round... eastern seaboard into the Atlantic...that's how I read it but could be wrong??

Isn't this what big Joe bastardi said in last few days or so...cold West side of the states, cold western Europe towards 10th onwards??... let's hope

Well we seem to be about to enter a COLD SNAP/BLAST or could it be longer ( I hope )... it still amazes me why some say downgrade/undergrade on charts that are 3,7,10 days away?? We've not even got to the weekend yet, when the cold starts to kick in...all the best winters had there ups and downs!! And this is no different, are we about to enter a period of weather not seen for quite a few yrs, 2009/10 and I'd say 78/79 as to what I hope happens ...but who really knows, not many ( bar GP, MUCKA, SM, TEITS, TAMARA to name but a few )...it may not last and mild might push back but at the moment it's an outside bet that will happen, I think it will last and it could be something special!! But let it get there 1st, don't over analyse the charts...take the charts at face value day by day...and let take us to a winter wonderland ... that's my take anywho, I don't profess to know like some on this great forum but from what little I've learnt...it looks damn interesting to say the least

It's hard to imagine...but winters already over, even before its only just started?? Strange The LRF...supposed to be a front loaded winter like 2010 was but it's not and didn't the MET predict a mild and wet winter for 2010?? And now January to March being wrote off because Ian ( not having a go at Ian, in anyway ) said?? If glosea, ecm was wrong for a front loaded, why is it right for the rest of winter...weather can and will change, quicker than we can say a chart is right...10days away!! They can only give inkling to what it might be, no more than that Sorry if off topic mods but it's got to be said...10 days, LRF...are as useful as a chocolate fire guard...

As jy says...pointless looking into 10days ahead, it will do what it wants too... but the thing is, it's nothing like last year AT ALL!! it's already better...and we've only just started winter...I'll nail mi cap to the post, from mid month, ie 16th onwards... will go the coldies way?? I HOPE!!...as I'd have to buy a cap, post...put post up and buy hammer n nails

Yes agreed arhu3...problem is 2day there's to many charts to analyse ( rinse, reapeat etc ) and to many look into f1?? instead of looking for tomorrow or 3days ahead, can't really look beyond that... I bet the epic winters, had forecasters saying similar and they only had charts for a particular day...NO COMPUTERS WHICH SHOWED 2 WEEKS AHEAD, I assume it was better not knowing what was to come...2morrow is just another weather day

As in similar I mean...date for date, 2nd Dec 62/2nd Dec 16....I wasn't born till 65 but my father said it was quite mild till mid month or later!! All I'm saying we can't look to far forward with any confidence...I'll eat my hat ( and I don't have one, lol )...if a chart 2day is even 50% right in 2 wks time

I think frosty ( or should it be MILDY now ) , has become a mild ramper...with the above assumption!! can't look that far forward with any confidence at all...especially with gfs, ecm, ukmo struggling...and my untrained is still seeing a change to more seasonal weather in F1, but until we get there we won't really know...at the moment it guess work?? Ps... 62/63 from some charts I've looked at, didn't they look similar ish ?? just saying

I read this forum from October every year, it as some XCELLENT posts ( Steve Murr, mucka, tamara, BFTP, GP, nick sussex, John holmes etc to name but a few )... but what amazes me is how the hell can a chart 7days plus verify??... it's the same every year!! I don't have the weather knowledge like most on here but I'd be amazed if a chart today was within 40% of being accurate in 3days time and I'm being generous with 40%!!... it's been cold the last 3weeks and even though it's going milder next week, that's it milder than it is now... I doubt above 12c, tops like my name suggests, law of averages says an EPIC WINTER will happen...like the VERY BLOODY MILD WINTER LAST YEAR!! a cold snowy winter will happen, it's just when?? 1947, 1963, 1981 didn't have the technology like today, so they couldn't known more than 48hrs in advance...if that!! what was going to happen... winter as only just started, already it seems better than last year...I think this winter could be a good one in terms of cold and snow!! I HOPE... take every chart with a pinch of salt, don't over analyse them...but more importantly 24hrs, 48hrs in weather is a long time Great forum, love it