Michael Fishermans Friend
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Posts posted by Michael Fishermans Friend
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Milder air moves into the S/SE on Sunday oddly:
528 dam through the midlands?? - can't see where the milder air is coming from??? Seems wrong to me.
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Where is my sleet then rain? - nothing here on the costa del Burnham
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Bone dry and the Estuary is doing its bit for down here
Temp has incresed from 0.4c an hour ago to sit at 1.7c at 2309
The worrying part is the dewpoint is now -0.5c from -3c about 2 hours ago so the estuary and the slight wind change here is making it harder by the minute, also the Iwade snow seems to have moved North West and keeping up in the dry slot.
Paul S
looks like we're stuffed again - just like ol' times Re: Feb 09, should be better tomorrow (he says having to drive 30 miles).
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Lol Tim - Yes exactly how I see it as well, you must have read my mind and me yours!
So that's 2 of us with that scenario!
Paul S
Notice on the radar a band of showery snow/ppn moving up from Kent - you reckon that has our name on it?
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Brief bit of sleety/snow about 10 minutes ago for about 2 minutes - I can confirm I will not be snowed in from this!
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i know its a long way off but if this comes off god knows what going to happen
yeah thats going by the GFS model which is showing more of a North Easterly favouring Kent and the NE coast of Norfolk/Suffolk, whilst the ECM and UKMO going by their output tend to have more of an ENE favouring the streamers and wider coastal areas.
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Yeah some great great synoptics at the moment which look like lasting for at least another week, it looks at some point over the next day or so and into the weekend a majority of people are going to see some form of snow or covering. These synoptics look like bringing us the most continuous form of blocking since at least 97 (in the south) and probably back to the 80's towards the North.
Looks like Friday and into the weekend the all important feature will be the direction of the wind which could possibly vary from day to day - maybe anything from a ENE to a NNE going by the various models so again who and where gets the most snow might come down to looking at the direction and strength of the wind to see how far inland these convective showers get.
Just sitting back and enjoying the synoptics for now - they don't come about like this often!
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JMA 12z run keeps the block towards the NW into next week - good!
This shows it better!
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Quite a progressive GFS 06z with the very cold block being pushed away eastwards and the more typical atlantic weather moving in, hopefully the 12z will be different.
I thought the 6z GFS was a slight upgrade on previous runs to mid-range, the block continues with a slight easterly by this time next week there after we see more of a push from the Atlantic, will be interesting to see if the GFS gently heads in the direction of the ECM.
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Certainly looks as if the game's up now for EA/SE in terms of heavy PPN. The last few day's developments only serve to show how things can turn on their head abruptly in these situations regardless of how good they look even at close range.
Anyone in the West want to buy my radar subscription? <_<
Still looks like we have a chance from Friday onwards - should certainly gets some showery stuff off the North Sea by then, but depends on wind direction, wind strngth and how close to the coast you are, and as you can see by that last fax chart never too far away from that belt of snow - so not over yet.
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That Fax chart for the weekend has the Scandy HP further north and angled more east to west whilst the GFS continues to have it somewhat further south and more NE to SW with only the South East looking to be effected by convectivity. The fax looks better with ocassional troughs and the snow belt edging nearer to the far South East tip, another radar watch coming up later in the week me thinks!
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Its only one run from one model, I dont get why some people are so downbeat about it!
It is strange the Euro models now see what the GFS was predicting (to a degree) a day or so ago and now the GFS has gone off the idea of an easterly and see's the LP much further down towards the med. Is the GFS higher resolution say 4-5 days out than the Euro models? - I think this is now 3 runs now (last nights 18z - todays 6z) which shows the easterly almost disappearing only effecting Kent briefly.
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ECM 0z looks pretty good to me - and continues the cold spell into next week with HP in some form either tou our NW, N or North East, looking pretty good going by that model!
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I suppose they are just covering their backs in case it is not as bad. Mind you according to that weather forecast it is going to snow in the East every day next week! I thought Dan Corbett was subdued though.
Agreed about Dan Corbett - he didn't seem that bothered to me about the weeks upcoming weather, quite disappointed infact.
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Very interesting forecast by Dan Corbett just now, despite him stumbling on his words a bit, that low over the south North Sea will cause all kinds of headaches for forecasters for the 2nd half of this week, also Dan mentioned the weekend and the prospect of significant snow if that moisture gets pulled from central/E Europe towards us from the east around the low over the continent.
He didn't seem to be bothered to me about the upcoming weeks events, mentioning the words 'several cms' and '5-10cms over the hills' and seemed quite unsure or vague about the SW feature on Weds/Thurs and precipitation amounts, but did mention the 'possible' snow event later in the week as the winds swing more easterly. Perhaps it's just me or reading through the posts on this forum that we are far more excitable and optimistic about snow events than the METO/BBC are - or maybe that is just Dan Corbetts style of presenting but going by Tomacz's forecast this morning for the week ahead people were close to passing out - not me.
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NOGAPS (For what its worth) partially there with the easterly but HP only just to the north, be interesting to see if ECM is still similar to GEM.
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JMA and GME 12zs get there in the end with quite a strong NE/ENE wind but the GEM still reluctent.
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My God just come back from a NYD party and looked at the various models and there isn't one that's bad, UKMO looks slightly different in the evolution of cold and GEM is a bit reluctent to bring in the Scandy HP but the ECM, NOGAPS and GFS look fantastic especailly the ECM which looks unbelievable and slightly scary (if that's possible). looks like the first part of the evolution is almost nailed whilst the transfer to the Scandy High feed is still in the balance but with the majority of the models in agreement with heights just to our north by +120hrs.
Im trying not to get excited just in case we have the mother of all climb downs by the models but what evolution do the 'big guns' i.e. TWS,KW,TEITS,SM,Nick Sussex etc. believe will now take place on refelction of the 12z/18z models.
many thanks and a Happy New Year to all Tim.
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light sleety/snow shower just passed over (didn't last long). Temp: 1.4C Dewpoint: 0.5C
Happy New Year to all and may it be a white one!
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GEM had a very diamond shaped HP(similar to the ECM)moving south into mid-Atlantic, where as at the same time period GFS HP was more pebble shaped with a more bias ENE flow as opposed to the direct North or NNE that the ECM/GEM shows and hence the collapse - if that makes any sense?
Those ECM ensembles look a bit worrying - could be effecting these shores by Thursday, let's hope its a blip.
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Showery here at the mo but of rain - temps 2c and dewpoint of 1c but dropping all the time. On the coast just north of Southend.
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That HP just collapses though, after 144 I thought it would link up with the Scandi HP but over the UK, I'm sure advisers like GP will advise us whats forecasted to be happening off the eastern seaboard by next week, certainly unexpected though with a continued -AO forecast for the foreseeable future. Anybody know what the GEM 12z was like as it has been in tandom with the ECM?
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I am not sure who writes these presentations, but hardly inspiring or decisive !!
Usual words.. risk, might, may, should , possible, mainly..ect..ect
But the general outlook remains cold..., tells yo nothing though.
Again, most folk on this site could produce a better forecast than that..
Gripe over..
C
Couldn't agree more - it really is a vague assessment, if they are going to be this vague then they might as well do it say every 3 days. The term 'Freezing Fog' is used by the METO automatically when there is non-Atlantic weather.
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Wrong way round GFS are playing catch up with The ECM, UKMO, GEM,
Sorry worded incorrectly - that's what I meant, also like Nick mentioned just a little tad worried as per my earlier post whilst watching ECM roll out that the approaching LP might move too far north and not far enough to the east (glass half empty again).
East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion XXXIV
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Down here on the Essex coast we'll end up again in the warm sector and get wet snow at best which would rapidly thaw, once again drove into work at Colchester only to be confronted again by far more snow through Tiptree etc. than what we have in the Costa del Burnham, surely fortunes have to change in this location at the weekend??