Michael Fishermans Friend

hhmmm absolutely nothing here...quite disappointed after this morning. Maybe later. Taking the dog out now.

Yeah light flurries here too - fresh breeze from the east and much cloudier than I thought it would be at this time.

No No totally disagree! - starting at my house :lol:

Unfortunately looking at that particular chart I reckon we are still on the wrong side of marginal (backed up by the Met Office). Probable day maxes would be around 3/4C in a gentle south or south west circulation. So near and so far.

About 6cms here on the Essex coast. Disappearing within hours!

I'll plump for 3.8C

1991 did last all week and we had a good few days of snow, infact near 10 days of the stuff on the ground. As you said we might get quite a good 24hr event but I fancy that might be about it, but there's along way of February to go and alot can happen in the upcoming weeks. I'm not expecting much from the Atlantic for the rest of the winter.

Unfortunately I don't think it will be an eyebrow raising event, the actual model watching and banter about it will far exceed the actual event.

I don't know where he heard that but it's rubbish - still expect the milder sector to effect this region in the afternoon turning things slushy. Nice to see the winds are in the east today already, BBC said they would be fresh and from the southeast. I'm not expecting to see anything by tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.

Just seen the latest 10:35 forecast with the mild ramper Darren Bett (he must be going through hell at the mo) and the graphics for Sunday showed snow showers on the east coast from the Thames up to Scotland and said "that they were keeping a weather watch on the potential for heavy snow next week" - quite vague but as muddled as the models are all you can expect from the METO.

Just seen the forecast on BBC at 10:35 with mild ramper Darren Bett and all he said for next week was "continental air will invade the Uk and it will be cold with even the chance, wait for it.....of some wintry flurries". God that bloke never puts out does he! :lol:

Quite similar to the spell in December/January 96/97 - similar time similar duration, but that spell was more severe here in the south east with colder temps by day and more snowfall. This cold spell has come as a shock simply for it's duration (near on 2 weeks) with the coldest night temps after the new year. Here in Burnham on Crouch we experienced our first 'Ice day' since the forementioned cold spell in January 1997 with a max on Saturday of only -0.4C whilst the coldest night being -5.1C. We were relatively lucky to see any snowfall with a max depth of over 1cm (wow) on the 5th compared to nearl on 3 inches in 1997. A 'Big Freeze' maybe not but in these 'even larger teapot' times maybe so. Compared to severe cold spells/snaps such as the spells in 95/96, February 91, Jan 87 (the biggy), Feb 86, Jan/Feb 85, Dec/Jan 81/82, Winter of discontent 79, Feb 78 it simply does not compare but lets hope we might get more from round 2 or will there not be another round as per the winter of 1996/97 when after was largely mild.

- mildest on record then!

Yeah Daily Star reckons it will be the coldest February for 70 years with temps as low as -15C, this from Jonathan Powell AT Positive Weather Solutions - not sure of their track record.

"And here are todays numbers 2's, 3's and 4's" be better off as a bingo caller. My Dad thinks he's a complete muppet!

December is usually the coldest winter month of recent years anomoly wise and I cannot see anything different with this winter so: January after a cold start, then briefly milder then cooler zonality at times. I'll say 4.1C

Daily Telegraph has caught on as well, basically saying similar to what the Daily Mail has said (obviously throuth the METO). Didn't say anything about major snow though, but did mention that temperatures could get into the 'very cold' catergory and that there could be some days where temps did not get above freezing, also an indicator that there was the potential for the weather to become 'very cold' towards the end of the next fortnight? - not sure where they got this information from as models usually go out to a fortnight.

Interesting by the METO...that sounds like ECM down to a tune at the present.

hmmm - nothing new here, just going by the model outputs - I think a lot of people on this board could have written something similar.

Been taking a look at the weather in Vancouver/Seattle recently which has weather similar to ours and it has been mighty cold with days temps varying from near Freezing to -5C!! wow, be great if we could see some of that. What are the synoptics over the Pacific North west? I take it a large dominant HP near Alaska? Noticed the Broncos (Denver) played their game yesterday in temps of 16F so obviously a huge swathe of central and Western States are being effected by the big chill. Have a friend taking a year out in Toronto and he msn'd me on Friday saying they were having a blizzard and 20cms of snow were expected that day, he also said temps were near -7C! Here's a picture from central Toronto on Friday morning.

Yep! step by step the METO are following to the tune of the pied pipers cold flute, but that doesn't set anything in stone. Yes it is very vague though, this month has been on the cold side (until recently) but have we seen any snow? I'd like to see a properly cold month, all good though. I'd like to have a few days off work through unpassable roads, something that hasn't happened for over a decade.

Been keeping a track on the Moscow weather and this Autumn/winter has been exceedingly mild, at the begining of this month temps for a while in the capital were between 7-8c when they should be averaging nearer -3c, and it is only of recent days they have fallen closer to normal. A trend which is becoming more apparent over recent years, when we have experienced an easterly it just hasn't had the bite to it. Let's hope the cooling trend continues in Siberia/Russia so if by miracle we do get an easterly in a month or so's time it will be quite a bit colder than a Pharoahs sock! :o

I lost all admiration for that bloke (if thats the right word) many moons ago. Bitter Freeze until March with rain and storms and fog and sprinklings of snow, and days when the wind dies down... wow what a winter to come!

Had the slightest of dustings before it turned to rain In November, nothing so far this month - not bad considering it's meant to be the coldest start to a winter for 30 years!

Well it looks odds on to be a dry Christmas. but after the last few 12z runs it's put the HP practically everywhere but not sure to the south west? - It looks like we'll have to wait until after xmas for what happens next. All the same this is a good experiment at seeing how well the GFS performs at FI and then closer to the time, perhaps this could be done for other times in the winter too! Good work TEITS!