Michael Fishermans Friend

Have to say every run I've seen from the GFS in FI is the same! and thats ending the 'colder spell' of weather before Xmas, if we take 240+ hrs as the lo-resolution end of the GFS howcomes it is predicting more or less the same scenario run after run and not coming up with altenatives to the synoptic pattern? Still up in the air about the forthcoming easterly IMO to the extent and severity but I believe we will experience at least a couple of days followed by a less cold Northerly which looks fairly certain, but then to continue for the rest of the run more or less on the same tact seems strange?

To me GFS and ECM are a slight downgrade but lets face it from yesterday evenings outputs there was only one way to go. No bone bitingly cold easterlies and something less cold from the NNE after about 168+ and maybe marginal, still alot of runs for things to change. Also what happened to that shortwave moving south after about 144 or so?

I'd be very surprised if that short wave which develops into something larger near Copenhagen will be in that position although GFS and ECM (Particularly) have low heights in that area, is there any chance that the SW won't be dragged down and be further north leaving the majority of the UK in less cold and drier weather with maybe only Scotland seeing any effect? Just throwing a curve ball in with many other posters curve balls! Also note how the delay is getting longer and longer to be sure on any 'cemented' set-ups

Watch the ECM collapse in an hour or so! - Be nice to see al models in fairly good agreement. I'll give it another 48hrs before I'm jumping on board, looks mouth watering though!

Totally disagree as per what KW said, what will happen (probably) a secondary depression would form well to the south (off Portugal) and move north eastwards and probably with this scenario little in the way of blocking to stop this secondary moving milder air up from the south and eventually over the UK if this UKMO scenario was to some degree correct (which I think it isn't).

hmmm interesting! - doesn't really go hand in hand with the UKMO output earlier, looks more based on the 06z GFS output. Still up in the air to me.

mmm not sure about the 06hrs GFS run, even when we get the 'link up' to HP to the NE as mentioned we have these short waves keeping the real cold from these shores for a further couple of days in a unreliable time frame. Overall the pattern still remains with HP to the North East/North but will we see real cold? I have to say the UKMO 0z looks completely different to the GFS/ECM.

Isn't the UKMO now looking quite poor though, looked like the HP cell over Greenland was too high with a large depression in mid-atlantic trying to bring up milder air - won't this put a spanner in the works of their outlook?

I'm not buying into the outcome after 120hrs - I think if things are going to go wrong it will be around this point, I can see that HP getting seperated from the Arctic High and the decent cold mass going into central Europe. Hopefully I'll be wrong.

very little difference so far up to +168z compared to the 12z run and that is amazing, which makes me worried about future runs , there's so many 'cogs' for this to go pear shaped. That window around 120z looks a bit 'iffy' I can see the HP cell over the UK getting seperated and not being 'swallowed' up the Arctic HP, or is that just me, to much depending on the SW to the east introducing the cold air or is that me being pessimistic?

Well if I was a gambling man and I am I would put my money on that GFS (06z) being more or less correct with some form of blocking to the east without any feed from the east, quite a few of the last Decembers have seen similar scenario's to this with either calm dull conditions or chillier frosty conditions before the weather gets somewhat more mobile again and lets face it pressure has to rise sooner or later and I reckon this is the most likely outcome.

Noticing though the cold or more interesting charts though are in FI - isn't that just resorting to typical GFS in general in mild winters? and you usually find the cold is put further and further back.

Even if these FI charts did come off it's still a month to early for me - take in the warm North Sea, relatively warm continent and even those charts would be marginal for the east, but looking promising!

I'll go for above normal but not as mild as this month - 6.5C for me please

Yep completely over the top programme. I wonder if London wasn't so badly effected by the snow for 2/3 days (yep thats along time ) if this programme would have even been made. Statements such as 'the whole country blanketed by snow' and 'all of the south east saw heavy snow' was way off the mark and full of inaccuracies. Crikey a woman gave birth in an ambulance in the snow!! and a man walked 20 miles so he could get to Guys Hospital in London zowwiee! they really know how to pad a programme. Shows what a mamby pamby nation we have become when we get some deepish (not everywhere) snow for about a week, shame the programme was a waste of time apart from the historical part towards the end.

My God - what a marriage! :lol: what actually did he do for a living in between all his storm chasing? looked like a lightning bolt had struck his teeth! :unsure:

Soon dumped that forecast (or run of 10-12th) of something coming in from the north east then, that nobody could fathom out as no models were projecting it - strange!

Got as much here now as we had on the morning of February 2nd - about 2cms now and still moderately falling. Temp near 0.7C and dewpoint of 0.2C. Lets hope we get clear skies and a frost later on.

Great even when we've got snow on the radar we find out the radar's up the swanny!!

Now 4C and dewpoint of 0.6C, but cloudy and dry here in the land of no snow - but waiting with baited breath. <_<

4.5C and dropping and dewpoint of o.8C, radar looks ok - whether it is rain or wet snow is the question. Metoffice at 2pm now has East Anglia (Essex) in the 'be prepared' colour. hhmmmm

Bare in mind the Dewpoint is great, and here in Colchester last night at 5.30pm it was sleeting at 4C so it wouldn't have to fall mega amounts but would have to snow heavy to settle!

Sorry cannot find it - do you know where in the winter discussion area? Cheers Timmy.

Been quite disappointing here on the east coast (which you wouldn't expect from an easterly). At it's deepest we had nearly an inch of the white stuff which was more than some coasterly areas in Essex and Suffolk etc. Still waiting for the post behind the reasoning for this. Infact even day time maxes have not been particularly cold - I think the coldest day recorded in this so called cold spell had a max of 2.5C now compare this to other cold spells in the nineties - just doesn't compare! Also an annoying fact is how the local papers got on the bandwagon from the National papers on this so called biggest snowfall for 18 years - no such thing! an inch of snowfall is not the biggest for 18 years infact the biggest since February 2007. In this part of the world this cold spell will not be remembered for anything dramatic at all although in the midlands, parts of London, surrey, kent etc. it will be. From a model watching perspective the best since I joined in 2003!

Sheeting down with rain here but temp has marginally dropped to 2.9C now and wind brisk in from the east, fingers crossed!