Michael Fishermans Friend

OK - EMC, GEM, UKMO are on a similar track with GFS partly there and thats this SW LP approaching and then shifting east to the south of the UK through France and linking up with a cold Scandi trough within 5 days, what are the percentages on this happening now and leaving as Steve M says (from the ECM output) in some fairly severe conditions? not wanting to tempt fate though!

Like to see the jet get a bit flatter on the ECM so the LP shifts more to the east, looks like it's struggling a bit. or is that me getting nervous! :lol:

GEM 12z at +144 looking pretty good!

Hows the GEM 12Z progressing anybody?

Hence the Greek flag? liking the heat? - looks like you've possibly got a few months of glumness to contend with! (fingers crossed).

BBC at 1.55pm mentioned very little about any snow for tomorrow or New Years day just saying there could just be a little wintryness on the back edge as it clears the east coast - so are we getting to optimistic on here?

hmmm - well METO not really sticking their necks out with that, possible snow showers or prolonged snow for Scotland and the North and East, can't be going by the ECM then. I think they access all the models and their trends and don't follow any particular model to come up with this, and they always always mention fog/frost somewhere if there is a imminent cold spell. I'd like to see a bit more detail from them for once.

GFS now looking slightly more like the ECM up to about 168 but unlike the ECM there is no repeat pattern with a further LP to the south but a weak ridge which slowly gives way to southerlies (but that is in FI +174 or so hours). At least it looks like GFS is giving way again to the Euro models if only in part (until the next run).

I was thinking this too - not alot of snowfall about after this LP episode is out of the way, I'm not sure if eastern areas will recieve any convectional stuff from Friday onwards in the north easterly air stream? - there after looking pretty dry and as said cold, this is backed up by Weatheronlines GFS ppn model. ECM to me looks no where near as good as yesterdays 12z and later on in the run looks a bit 'shaky' - but thats a long long way off. :unsure:

you don't take it seriously it is a 'very rough' guideline - I've never seen a model which goes out that far either :lol: - it is 408 hours, probably turn out to be the opposite, but looking good in up to early next week (fingers crossed).

I have not looked at the models this morning but I take it 'things are still up in the air' as regards to what is happening later this week and the track of this LP with the GFS still going along by itself, I've just got a feeling that nothing will be resolved by the models until a day or so before hand if these strange synoptics keep occuring. It really is quite stressing. :lol:

GFS 12z after about 96hrs looks pretty similar all the way through which is pretty good the further north you live, always marginal after this time span if you live further south but hopefully the lo-res part of this will change for the better. It seems that LP is 'camped' to the WSW of the British Isles with a trough extending at times eastwards towards southern Britain with less cold air effecting the south, but if you live from the midlands northwards you gotta be rubbing your hands in anticipation.

Re: TEITS post - keep looking at this feature - infact yesterday (LP to the NE of Scotland) and it is typical of 'switching the tap off' for the real source of cold air, we gat these short wave features also with northerlies at high latitudes as well, quite often in our winters stopping a severe plunge of Arctic air coming directly from north to south. This time a feature trying to hinder an easterly (or north easterly). As synoptics go I think you have it spot on, if it hangs about or shifts to the north or NW then good bye to a very short cold snap, not allowing the 'buffers' of an easterly to take place.

Yeah have to agree very strange looking synoptics have been occuring over the last week and looks like into the foreseeable future, at the present LP's all over the place apart from well to our north but looks like a trend developing now for the jet to be squeezed just to our south and sustained cold to our north and in the middle - who knows! hopefully we'll all be on the right side.

ECM FI looks promising with some good height rises near Spitzbergen/Barents Sea area (1050mb) and into Geenland once again, if this did come off it would look very promising, as long as we get some under cutting from the HP rather than the LP trying to shift directly northwards, still an impressive start to the winter with some very strange synoptics not seen for a few years!

any chance of those showers clipping the Essex coast just north of Southend?, looks like they are moving along the coast rather than inland

That will bring rain to the south I reckon, maybe snow on the chilterns - still a very mixed and messy synopsis though.

Just driven from Burnham on Crouch to Colchester, through Maldon and Tiptree, both Tiptree and Colchester have about 4 inches or so and Burnham maybe about 3 or so whilst Maldon maybe about 2 (judging what I've seen at the road side). Kold Weather what do you think the prospects are for snow in the SE region from the front moving southwards tomorrow night?

Yes agreed...look at Dec 81 charts, alot of still quiet days on the run up before and just after xmas. Note almost throughout that period no -10hPa air over the south but the surface was bitterly cold...say no more.

nah thats wrong! snow coming down from the north on Wednesday, ceratinly sleety rain still and coming off the North Sea, into Friday is when the chance of seeing snow starts and that will be in a light to moderate easterly.

'Dollybirds' lol! - haven't heard that phrase used in ages! the one on Look East is a nightmare, you can tell she hasn't got a degree in Meteorology!

Saw the look East forecast out to Saturday at lunchtime and that was just as dire, they basically said it was going to get colder as the week progressed with maybe some showers turning wintry and maybe some flurries come Friday with temps down to 3c and the strangely on Saturday temps recovering to 5c and the wind in the SE, mentioned nothing about any sort of accumulations, infact she didn't seem to be to bothered.

By Friday we should have -10 850hpa uppers along the coast, the warmth of the sea will moderate things slightly but we will be on the right side of marginal, probably no warmer than about 2c and falling in any showers, as mentioned Friday into Saturday and Sunday look our best chance of snow and then it's a question of how long the cold can last into the xmas period.

by that 12z GFS run we really should see something out on the coast of Essex/Suffolk/Norfolk but inland not so sure, but by late Saturday/Sunday most places 'fingers crossed' should see some more continuous snow fro a cold front heading southwards and by the time it gets down to our neck of the woods it might comwe to a grinding hault, and who knows maybe an inch or two, a certain website sees this as moderate to heavy in nature.

Just saw the ITV London/SE forecast up to Thursday and it was quite pathetic really, Tues/Wed some showery rain encroaching with highs of 7C/45F and Thursday colder with highs of 3C and showers possible turning wintry. My god they play it safe. To me late Thursday/Friday are our best potential for snow convection with temps no higher than 2C I reckon and then the winds slowly shifting into a northerly but largely dry.