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Everything posted by multi cellular thunderstorm
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You look to be in a pretty good place at the moment. I will be quite limited on Thursday, got to see the olympic torch with my girlfriend from about 6pm onwards, and roads around here are closed from 4pm, so if I do go out anywhere I will have problems getting back. Might have a little Lincolnshire chase on Wednesday but not sure if it's worth it yet.
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I wasn't able to go this year, but I just wanted to say thanks and well done to everyone who shared photos and reports with us back in the UK, there were some amazing photos. Can't wait until I can get out there again hopefully within the next two years.
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Very frequent lightning from that storm just leaving the north of France now! Precipitation is losing intensity unfortunately, but hopefully it will still be active enough for people in E Kent to see something. Much brighter here now with some spells of sunshine, feeling much warmer too, and some convection. For my location I'm worried about the light showers approaching from the south, I think they will inhibit any decent convection. Some decent cells around Lincolnshire now, but no sferics yet.
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Same here, still stuck at 15:20. Hope it starts working again soon. Got another fairly heavy shower here now, but again doesn't seem thundery. After this I've already got my eye on the next one currently over Birmingham, but again it doesn't look too exciting yet. Meanwhile another big shower is heading towards County Durham and Tyneside, hopefully that will hold its intensity until it reaches the highly populated areas up there.
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That seems to have happened a lot here too. Showers seem to explode into life about 10 miles after they pass through Nottingham then slam areas north east of here with thunderstorms. Feel like that's happened at least 5 times this year already, including today. Probably going to happen with the next shower approaching here now, it's very black to the south again. At least I'm getting heavy showers here today though, which is better than nothing.
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Good luck those heading out chasing tomorrow. I think I'll just sit here in Nottingham and hope for something to hit. Car isn't too good at the moment so I don't want to risk making things worse. Here's the ESTOFEX forecast which Dazmaster mentioned earlier... Map here... http://www.estofex.o...ormforecast.xml
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Already around 70mm looks to have fallen in some places with more still to come. BBC weather latest tweet... "Numerous roads already flooded in SE England. Conditions expected to worsen in the Capital as the heavy rain pours through rush hour" Looks like this event will be every bit as bad as expected and possibly worse.
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Showers are very slow moving on the radar, some parts are stationary near the Pennines. If these showers form a little further south towards York then there could be more localised flooding in that area after yesterdays deluge. It looks like river levels peaked this morning on the Ouse, and it didn't burst it's banks. More slow moving downpours in the same area today and it might just flood the riverside area in York. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120701.aspx?stationId=8208 No sign of sferics yet...
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As Supacell has said, chances for storms look a bit limited, but wind convergence looks good and high res NNM charts show showers developing in a similar area to today... I would like to be able to understand the skew-t charts but still cannot grasp them, if there is no cap to limit the cloud tops then I think storms could develop in similar areas to today with the help of convergence, but I'm not really sure about possible capping and upper temps etc. I have done a little prediction below, don't take it too seriously, just done it mainly because I'm bored rather than having vast knowledge! Red area I would expect showers to get going fairly early in these areas, by around 11am, starting towards the north of the area and extending further south to cover most of the red area by 1-2pm. Possibly less organised than today's impressive line through Yorkshire, and moving in more of an easterly direction than today's storms which moved south east. Lightning strikes will likely be more isolated and fewer than today's, and more likely in the southern half of the red area. Showers continuing until evening but any lightning activity fading by around 6-7pm. Orange area High res charts break out some showers later in the afternoon in this area, and there's some good wind convergence. Cape/Li values improve slightly in this area as the afternoon goes on too. I would guess showers won't get going until around 3pm in this area, and with less intensity than the red area, with only a small chance of the odd weak t-storm from about 4-8pm. That's my novice effort for Sunday. Let's see what happens!
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Haha Peter, I wish! This relationship has cost me a fortune, leaving my job, moving down here and being jobless for 10 months. To add to all that my car cost £405 to repair today, so I feel more like I've landed on another part of my body! Anyway back on topic, looks like the same area could be in for more tomorrow, but maybe the risk extending a little further south according to the charts, so I'm hoping for something down here tomorrow.
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As Muffelchen said very good prediction by Supacell yesterday ^^^ Looks like tomorrow the risk is a bit further south, hopefully nearer to Nottingham. Any chance you could predict a line of storms from Merseyside, through Nottingham to the Wash Supacell? Back to today and still following the radar, looks like rainfall totals of up to 50mm so far in some spots, and 300+ lightning strikes mainly in N Yorkshire.
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Yeah I've been watching that, looks amazing just north of York with lots of strikes and torrential rain. There could be some really high rainfall totals too looking at the movement of that very intense line of rain. Wish I was at my girlfriends house 10 miles east of York, if I'd known this was going to happen we could have had a weekend there!