depends upon a few things really, the pennines do act as a barrier, but the uppers will be cold it's whether there's is any troughs in the easterly flow, a few showers may make it over if the wind is strong enough, our best bet is some form of under cut or if we can get any NE vector winds winds pushing small systems in the flow to us, best would be undercuts
Ive lived over here 20 years and it'll be cold but bone dry unless it really is a major event then I'll bow to others for historic info