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beng

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  1. beng
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 Very nice.
  2. beng
    Yes we did - melted the snow here on Christmas Eve if I remember right - typical really. Ed's pretty much answered my question with a post he made in the Stratospheric thread indicating that a west based negative NAO might occur - so assuming that happens it'll be a question of how far West, and the latitude/angle of the jet - the chances are that someone gets a big snowfall from that - Northern areas most favoured at this stage. Interesting thanks - I'll take that away and think it through - this could be a rather special cold spell if that pans out.
  3. beng
    Thanks Ed - that partly answers the question I just asked Stewart on the model thread.
  4. beng
    Quick question Stewart - if you have time: With so much of the PV on ourside - does that not increase the risk that any Greenland high might get pushed too far West resulting in a returning SW flow across parts of the UK?
  5. beng
    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1921.html JMA looks 'potentially' very Jan 1987 - just need some energy from the atlantic low to head SE and bang.
  6. beng
    Great charts, but I reckon the ECM probably has too much energy going North over the top of the atlantic ridge after 168 - we can expect more disruption south of Greenland should the 168 verify - which will result in different 192-240 output (still cold though - possibly an upgrade in fact) - and probably take us more towards the chart GP posted earlier. On top of that, if/when the cold uppers hit the North sea, then we're going to see shortwaves form - so it could take a little longer for the cold to reach the far South as a result of that. Something similar happened in 2010.
  7. beng
    Out of interest, what would be your view on the perfect split - 50/50? I was looking back at 2010, and we ended up with more of the PV on the Euroasian side - which ultimately I think may have led to the block retrogressing too much - at least from a Nimby South Easterner's perspective. The other side of the coin is that having enough PV on the Eurasian side was important in terms of allowing deep cold to come Westwards - so it's obviously a fine balancing act.
  8. beng
    Thanks Ed.
  9. beng
    I have a question for the Stratospheric gurus - there's been some chatter on here about the lack of ozone above the Arctic at the moment - is this actually relevant at this stage of the season? My understanding is that for ozone to help with a warming event, then it would require warming by direct sunlight - so if that's correct, then I'd expect Ozone to be more relevant from January on-wards as currently any solar heating would be rapidly decreasing; or is the primary driver behind the warming due to Ozone acting as a greenhouse gas in the stratosphere and preventing heat escaping? Also assuming that Ozone needs direct UV to be important to trigger a warming, then I would anticipate that it's a lot less relevant in the case of any early season warmings - e.g. where we see disruption of the vortex from below? Thanks to all for a really fascinating thread.
  10. beng
    bah - you get the point I'm making - apologies for the exaggeration with respect to snowfall amounts in Toronto
  11. beng
    Burst pipes & broken boilers everywhere I'd imagine!
  12. beng
    Of course in Toronto they're used to dealing with it - here - our infrastructure would crumble under these conditions. Still I'd like to experience a really severe UK winter at least once.
  13. beng
    Wish I could bank that. On el nino - I think it looks pretty unlikely now. I've been following the sub surface data for the last couple of months and basically the warm pool is really disappearing; at the same time a cold pool is replacing it. If anything weak la nina conditions looks possible by winter time, although it probably won't be low enough to be officially recorded. http://www.pmel.noaa...del/disdel.html No doubt this evolution is going to cause the seasonal models even more grief than normal. One other thing of note is the impact of Nadine on the Atlantic SSTs - http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif Something of a tripole (Warm/cold/Warm) pattern developing - which would be supportive of a winter negative NAO - although we have several more months to go - so it could easily change at this stage.
  14. beng
    http://twitter.com/B...7302784/photo/1 This tweet from Joe Bxstardi illustrates an analogue winter pattern based off the geomagnetic field. Looks very tasty but of course there's a few years in the analogue list that were pretty pants too. Just another hint though that this will be a blocked winter.
  15. beng
    Ozone is created through a photochemical reaction (i.e. driven by the sun) on oxygen molecules which produces single oxygen atoms which can then combine with other oxygen molecules to produce ozone. One of the possible things that can increase ozone levels therefore is extensive snow cover (in areas receiving sunlight - i.e. tending to be south of the pole) since additional solar radiation is then reflected back into the upper atmosphere strengthening the reaction.
  16. beng
    "His tweet though was very keen on a SSW which I still don't know will occur or not!" Joe B is a great one for analogues - my guess is he's taken the pattern developing in the stratosphere and weighted it against analogue years from the past (mainly in relation to SST patterns) and concluded it will develop into something major. Based on the stratospheric data alone it's obviously too early to conclude that so we shall see.
  17. beng
    http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 1040mb high more or less smack bang over the pole by day 10 - of course it may not happen but this is what the model shows - and it's been consistent the last few runs in developing the feature. If you look at the archive charts for end of Dec 84 - hemispheric view, there are similarities there - and yes there are differences - I'd be amazed if there wasn't. http://meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=27&month=12&year=1984&hour=0&map=0&mode=0 Please read what I actually wrote - rather than just making comments about something I didn't actually say. The message I was trying to get over was that IF the ECM model was correct with the arctic high, then I would expect to see a less flat jet stream than it currently shows. I then pointed out how in the 85 spell, it started with an arctic high, which then amplified the jet, drove warm air into the arctic and then intensified the heights there.
  18. beng
    Yes I'm thinking a long the same lines Nick. With an arctic high as modelled by the ECM, I'd expect a push of cold air out of the Arctic resulting in greater amplitude in the jet - i.e. a more buckled jet stream to form. At the moment though the ECM shows it pretty flat, and the GFS isn't really going for the Arctic high in such an aggressive way. I took a look at the evolution of the Jan 85 cold spell (as it's been the in thing to quote 85 as a possible analogue for this winter), and that started with an arctic high, the jet buckled, warmer air was then driven into the arctic and that strengthened the high and helped disrupt the vortex further. Anyway - something to watch for even though it obviously may not happen.
  19. beng
    I agree to an extent, but wouldn't have the confidence to say his thinking is flawed. Part of the key to whether an Easterly could develop is the position of the Vortex. If it settles in N Canada/Baffin for example, then an Easterly is quite possible even with a strong vortex. In fact the vortex would drive the WAA helping to create the required block. You need a fairly stable vortex though, one that's not on the move and leaking too much energy across the Atlantic. I suspect he's actually on the right lines with his thinking here, but perhaps a week or two early. I have Dec 1954 as an analogue in mind where it took until Dec 31st for the link to finally be made.
  20. beng
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=312&code=0&mode=2&carte=0 LMAO - there's the Dec 2nd snowstorm on the long range GFS. Shame it'll be gone by 10pm tonight though.
  21. beng
    Ditto - I'd recommend everyone have a read of this.
  22. beng
    Check out the t384 chart from NAEFS - http://www.meteociel...84&mode=0&map=1 More groundhog day (although would be colder than what we have now). EDIT - Actually this would tally up with John's thoughts that there may not be much change in the upper blocking pattern until the end of November (at the earliest). That's a strong signal on the NAEFS at that range for blocking to be present in the final week of the month to our East.
  23. beng
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=156&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1 http://www.meteociel...npara=0&carte=1 http://www.meteociel...map=1&archive=0 Hmm - not a bad match with the ECM 0z - GFS creates a deeper atlantic low - but that's not unusual due to the model's tendency to over deepen low pressure systems.
  24. beng
    I guess then (for the moment anyway) given the GFS and the ECM ensembles, we'd had to say the ECM operational concept is currently unlikely - but not impossible. I think we're stuck with looking no further than 120h with the models at the moment due to the uncertainty. I have to admit that I can't remember an Autumn as mild as the one we're currently experiencing - very strange - and it's all down to an incredibly slow evolution of the current synoptic pattern. On the plus side for a coldie like me, it might not be unreasonable to think that if we move into a colder pattern, we could also be stuck with that for an extended period.
  25. beng
    Yes agreed and especially if that operational happens to be the 06z run - which often seems to be out of step with the other GFS runs. GFS at 90h on the 6z is much more progressive with the low over Eastern Canada - so all eyes on that in the 12z.
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