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beng

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  1. beng
    Not sure if this is what you're looking for, but it illustrates the warming propagating downwards quite well. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2013.gif
  2. beng
    In my humble opinion, I think the models (excluding GEM/UKMO) are taking too much energy NE around 144 hours. We've not really see any low pressures head from the SW off the coast of Scandinavia for a long time, so it would be wise to be a bit skeptical of that due to it being so hard up until now. Should be clearer tomorrow whether we'll see a bit more trough disruption than shown - basically I'd expect more of the energy to head SE, south of Scandinavia - closer to the GEM scenario and the rest of the Atlantic energy to stall somewhat more than ECM is modelling. I don't see mild SW winds through Scandi at 240 hours verifying (that was based off this morning's ECM).
  3. beng
    LOL - yes me too.
  4. beng
    There's a twitter comment from Joe laminate floori that it's showing negative NAO for next 30 days (believe it when I see it!) - hopefully Matt will be along at some point with an update.
  5. beng
    Promising ECM - if it's been slightly too progressive from 168 to 192 then you might see higher heights around Greenland here - if the low coming off North America stalls a little. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html
  6. beng
    Thanks - could be very good for cold potentially if we get a block over the pole or Greenland at the same time. My worry with the displacement (rather than split) and much of the vortex in Siberia - is that blocking sets up too far West for getting cold into the UK.
  7. beng
    That's so close to a major freeze if the Canadian block was just a bit further East.
  8. beng
    Thanks for all your hard work Ed - love reading this thread. Assuming we were to just get a vortex displacement, what factors would influence where the vortex would be displaced to? Is that just completely unpredictable at this stage - and dependent upon surface features at the time of the displacement, or can we make an educated guess?
  9. beng
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=114&mode=0&carte=1 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&carte=1 Far West Atlantic - small system that produced the southerly runner on the 06z is forming.
  10. beng
    I think part of the reason for the model shift maybe this: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsdivka.html Much of Europe has become snow covered in the last day or so, which will lead to a more intense level of embedded cold. On top of that the models were always wrong in how they originally brought southerlies into Scandinavia in such easy fashion - part of the changes are just reflecting the model adjustments back to something more reasonable.
  11. beng
    Well I've lost count of the times I've seen both GFS and ECM model these super storms at t180+ - yet to see one verify. Hope for the sake of my garden fence that this pattern continues. Yes cold never really goes very far. Hopefully 18z has picked up on something and is not drunk.
  12. beng
    How about a hurricane - lol http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0&carte=1
  13. beng
    Yep - I've seen enough of this run - what's interesting is that winds go from SW to SE between t108 and t132 - at least at the surface - which is an indication of a massive struggle being modeled. If the modeling is slightly too progressive (more than possible), then things might still get interesting at the end of next week.
  14. beng
    You may be right - my thinking is it's between this morning's 144 and 168 charts from the ECM - as I would envisage that low around iceland heading SE and ridging behind it - but we'll never know due to there being no 168 hour chart!
  15. beng
    It's very similar to this morning's ECM at that time range.
  16. beng
    http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021 Similar to this morning's ECM at that time range. So maybe GFS has the pattern too early, and too far West.
  17. beng
    I just think it's the GFS nonsense of over-deepening the low Kold - hopefully this time tomorrow we're going to see something a bit cleaner.
  18. beng
    http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1 Right at the interesting bit the GFS model bias kicks in and totally over develops the low - at least I suspect it is. Very different to UKMO at 120 hours anyway due to developing the lows too much - so 144 probably not worth a lot.
  19. beng
    Yes - even if the slider low does introduce some milder air (not certain yet), if we get the ridging in the Atlantic behind it, then the floodgates could well open properly.
  20. beng
    Complete agree (and I'm quite happy to know the Met Office when it's deserved). I think the UKMO model has performed rather well TBH - it's been very consistent at the 120/144 range. People need to remember that it only goes to 144h - so it's only really on today's chart that we get to see the atlantic attack. I won't be surprised either to see that disrupt somewhat, depending on how embedded the cold can get before we get there. ECM was getting there with the middle, but lost the plot with the closer range low pressure development off Canada. Each model has its strengths and weaknesses.
  21. beng
    If the low at 132 stalls to the West, it will pump up the block to the East - getting quite interesting here.
  22. beng
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=nam&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=66&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= One good sign is that the NAM (which is a high resolution model for short term forecasting) looks to be developing the American East coast low.
  23. beng
    It's the best medium range model for sure. It's not always the best at handling features in the closer range - the feature in question that is causing the problem is around t72-t96 - it's quite possible for ECM to mishandle that - which due to a massively complex and chaotic pattern (much more so than normal) results in a very different medium range output. We'll find out tomorrow either way.
  24. beng
    http://www.emc.ncep....aphics/acz6.gif I did say previously that I backed the ECM (basically because it's normally so reliable at t96), but I'm having second thoughts - the above model accuracy at 6 days indicates that it's been really struggling in the last few days. Additionally, thinking about it a bit more, the ECM is best at picking out medium range trends, the differences now are to do with the handing of a low pressure system at fairly close range (between t72 and t96) - which is not necessarily one of its strengths.
  25. beng
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=1&archive=0 I think on the ECM, the small surface high pressure in NE Canada prevents the low from taking the UKMO/GFS track. I suspect it's right so the real cold may be delayed a few more days.
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