beng

It was the late 1980s when the AMO began to shift into its warm phase (I'm sure the run of warmer winters afterwards is no coincidence) - I think it's beginning to shift back into the cold phase right now, so perhaps not too much longer to wait for some better winters + we have the solar minimum coming. Colder winters tend to occur just after minimum (obvious exceptions aside) - perhaps because the ocean surface anomaly patterns (resulting from zonality over the previous winter seasons) initially fight the atmospheric pattern (more favoured to blocking during the minimum). I have a theory (never had time to do the research to validate though) that proper easterly outbreaks are much less likely to get as far as the UK during the the warm AMO - partly because of the warmer N Sea, which increases the chances that shortwaves form and prevent the real cold from arriving, especially down here. Another theory is that when the pattern shifts into the cold AMO phase again, it will coincide with a notably cold W European winter during the switch; that should at least get tested in the next decade.

Here's a reanalysis of the Nov 1962 SST anomalies (below - bottom) - the standout thing for the Atlantic is the big cold anomaly to our SW - which no doubt helped encourage jet stream splits and troughing into Europe during the winter months. The anomaly in the Pacific is also of interest with cold water south of Alaska and then warm water (relative to average) right on the US W coast - which I'd think would favour a US/Canada West coast ridge to pump warmth up into the Arctic. Looking at SST right now - It's almost the opposite in terms of the 2 anomalies I described. Based off these, the implication is that we're looking at US West coast troughing and ridging on the US East Cast and potentially mild winter for W Europe - not what we want to hear. As we know, SST are just one factor though and do change quite considerably through Oct/Nov as Atlantic storms churn the ocean - so any forecast based off these ought to wait a couple of months. 1962 Nov, SST Anomalies

Yes this is the 2012 one - as you say the problem here was partly because the high wasn't centred over Scandi but too far East etc.

Yes agree completely - Feb 1991 came through Ukraine and then across the continent. Maybe Jan 87 would be an exception as it looks like it came across the Baltic/N Sea more - but I just think we got amazingly lucky there with the trigger low interacting at the exact time frame to send it our way; any slight deviation and the cold would probably never have arrived in the UK on the scale that it did.

Judging by the winter so far and the desire for that high pressure slug to our South or South West, I know where I'd put my money - of course that might not happen, but the pattern of Dec and early Jan does rather imply that the underlying ocean & atmospheric anomalies currently favour it.

Drove home from work over Boxhill just before 5pm and it was getting pretty bad up there - imagine it's similar to that video by now.

Suspect they will use it as an argument that they need the extra runway - probably been driven more by politics than weather IMHO.

I wonder if we could get the polar vortex displaced as far as this? Probably not, but it does provide an excuse to post a nice chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 UKMO not great IMO - as I see it, the low to the NW is going to follow the jet around the high towards Scandinavia and prevent any further amplification.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=162&mode=0&carte=1 Be good to see a bit of trough disruption west of the block too - GFS as normal at this range having none of it.

I know the higher resolution view won't look quite as good - but still this looks nice. If only it would stall like this for a few extra hours.

Don't think so as he's referring to Thursday and says Northern extent not certain. :-)

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/818438598835970048 Maybe some support for that from the forecast strat at 30 hPa?

Yes the MO must love that - ha ha.

The wave that Ian Ferguson was referring to is I suspect, the system in the channel on the latest 72h fax

Trough disruption might be the wrong term, but if you look closely some of the energy is heading south with yes a fair chunk going NE, more going South than GFS. I didn't suggest a scandi high was on the cards from that, but I do think you end up with a cold block to the East and a continental flow of sorts into parts of the UK. Hopefully someone will post that 168h chart so where can see how it turns out :-)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 I like the UKMO 144 chart - bit of trough disruption to our West - 168h might develop a decent cold block to the East - maybe not enough amplitude for a proper Easterly though.

Something that caught my eye somewhat is that this morning's ECM is the first morning ECM run to bring the Easterly on the Op; the previous times were both on the 12z Op run. Whether we can deduce much from that though, I'm not sure without knowing the reason that the 12z runs appear to have been more amplified up until now.

From that description John, then it would definitely be Nov/Dec 2010 - I remember both the Met and the stratosphere boffins getting very excited before it all hit.

Joe has hinted that he favours a more negative AO/NAO through Jan though which would be different to Jan 84. https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/807738199107862529

that's 1998

The current ECM looks favourable for an attempt at an easterly after 168 hours (annoyingly the op doesn't go on to show it though) - could you let us know if a few of the EPS go on to deliver? Seems like there's a growing possibility of a mid month attack from the East - which would chime with Stuart's hints from a few days ago and something you mentioned too I think. The main issue with easterlies is that they are even more of a nightmare for the models than Greenland highs!

Good thing the Daily Express didn't read what you wrote

You might be right - but if we get a negative NAO combined with a negative AO, the chances that deep cold air will find its way towards are much higher than with just a standard block in the atlantic and a positive AO.

So sounds like there's some support (maybe not the right word at this range) at the moment for a potential easterly mid Dec that might be quite potent given the cold pooling that could be in place should it occur. I might have to look away from the models in the run up given the inevitable dramas around Easterlies! :-)