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beng

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  1. beng
    http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large For what it's worth, the coming depression is currently around 4mb deeper that what had been modeled for this time from the 06z GFS run. It'll be interesting (perhaps) to check this again around 6pm - where it's meant to be off the SW UK at around 990MB (according to the GFS) Edit - Sn0wman got there first! :-)
  2. beng
    John - It's looking pretty bad either way (i.e. GFS or ECM are both bad), but if the actual path/development timeline is in the middle of ECM/GFS - am I right in thinking it would potentially be worse in terms of potential impact - and taking the strongest winds over the most populated areas?
  3. beng
    Hadn't seen the matrix before - great idea - maybe the Daily Express could adopt it! :-)
  4. beng
    If we get the storm on Monday down here (in SE England) - we have a major problem I think as the mild start to Autumn means trees are mainly still in leaf, and we have fairly sodden ground to boot. The final factor is that we've not had a really big gale down here since 1991 - meaning nothing has come along to remove the weak trees/branches. Anything producing gusts over 80MPH, at rush hour on a Monday will be an extreme event with 'big' damage (even accounting for it being half-term week and less traffic).
  5. beng
    There's some decent cover across Asia at the more Southerly latitudes - that bodes well for a strat warming event at some point I'd think.
  6. beng
    I've been thinking about this - could it be that the important thing is to have southerly latitude snow cover as early as possible during October - since this will lead to more sunlight being reflected - and an increase in ozone. If you have a very steep SAI, then typically there's a good chance that you'll get some decent early snow cover at the more southerly latitudes across Russia. So for this winter, although the rate of increase hasn't been fantastic, perhaps we need to focus on the southerly extent of the snow through Oct - and what the ozone levels are (I've not checked to see how good this has been relative to average). So because we started with the high extent, perhaps we can't rely on the rate of change entirely. EDITif I'm reading this correctly - ozone looks pretty good right now - http://es-ee.tor.ec.gc.ca/e/ozone/Curr_allmap_n.htm - also looks like it's heading into the right kind of area - although we've got the big negative anomaly just on the Western side of Greenland.
  7. beng
    The thing is though that the most important factor with the Snow Advance is the 'rate' of advance, and the rate is not overly special - at least up to the 13th (even if there's initially more snow on the ground than recent years). Still just about time for that to change though.
  8. beng
    Actually I don't think the October snow (ignoring the sea ice) advance is that quick (below 2007 apparently), we just started October at a higher base this year - these guys have a good handle on it (warning - it's Italian - scroll down and you'll see a graph of the Snow Advance Index). http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7364.150 Hopefully the second half of the month will produce an acceleration.
  9. beng
    I would think then that the first year ice created this winter will be thicker than recent years due to the earlier freeze. It'll be interesting to see what if any impact this has on next year's summer minimum.
  10. beng
    joe bxstardi tweeted this: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/387308928733687808/photo/1 which is an analogue for the winter (I think it's the winter coming - although for some reason it says DJF 2015?!). It shows a reasonably chilly setup for the UK - again UK likely to be on the edge of the cold this winter - possibly in the battlezone between mild and cold. I guess, the key point to take though is that the SSTs are currently favouring a higher than average pressure pattern to our North. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/05/noaa-sends-hidden-messages-in-forecast-discussion/ PS Sad what's happening over there at the moment.
  11. beng
    Yep - but there's a relationship between sunspots/UV and the AO http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/looknorthyorkslincs/ahlbeck_solar_activity.pdf http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2012ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/S2-01_Ineson_sorce2012.pdf
  12. beng
    I had a look at the data Matt posted in the stratospheric thread - regarding the QBO state and possible analogue years. I then took a look at the years in question and removed those which didn't match in respect to the PDO and likely Enso state this winter (I'm assuming near neutral or weak) - unfortunately it didn't leave too many years left so my composite is likely to be of questionable value - but interesting none the less. This is the projected anomaly - not the mean pattern (which won't look nearly as cold) - but it does indicate a fairly cold winter overall - coldest in Jan. Temperature anomalies indicate the coldest (relative to normal) will be across SE areas. The coldest European conditions relative to normal may well be Germany, Poland and S Scandinavia where conditions could be severe. Incidentally - here's the October forecast based on these years: Of course the composite only has to be slightly out in terms of the position of the blocking to produce a notably cold winter for the UK.
  13. beng
    The thing is though that the AMO is still in the long term positive cycle at the moment - which acts against ice formation to some extent in the Barents Sea - so I'd still bet we'll top out below the average. In 5-10 years the cycle will switch - then we're going to get a big surprise with a big jump in arctic ice; it will make the climate change discussion interesting. Worth saying that I think the winter of 63 happened around the time of the last long term switch in the AMO - although as to whether there's a connection - impossible to say. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg
  14. beng
    Assuming there's snow cover on the ground Nick, we might be looking at an extreme overnight frost if the t120 chart is anywhere close to the mark. GEM is interesting this morning and shows where we might head if more energy goes south around t96 than the other models currently show. Normally you'd ignore one model showing that - but the tendency over the last week or so has been for the models to switch once we get to around t72 and disrupt the incoming lows.
  15. beng
    Light snow in Leatherhead (Surrey) at the moment - settling a little everywhere by the looks of it (that'll be the low dew points then). Noticed the roads were really well gritted on the way to work today - even the minor country lanes had been gritted!? Well done to Surrey county council for once (normally they are completely hopeless).
  16. beng
    As weathermaster posted on the previous page, there is another warming pulse just possibly beginning - (also see below) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_JFM_NH_2013.gif Remains to be seen how strong this is though. Piers may well have nailed this weekend's weather though in his January forecast - we'll have to wait until the 22nd to know for sure. So for this weekend at least he's probably talking out the top end of his body
  17. beng
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201301161800&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Latest NAE is not that bad for most of the SE - assuming it's close to reality and assuming the front is stalling in this position. As Kold says - we might get some extra energy off the channel to perk things up.
  18. beng
    For those of us around East Surrey and W Kent - I think we'll see some back edge snow from this precip - probably just 1-2cm though. Hope I am wrong and it's all snow - but looks very unlikely from current output here.
  19. beng
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1 GFS - if you conclude it might just be over deepening this low pressure system (at 945mb!?) given the bias in this particular model, then you also have to conclude that in reality the low pressure would be less deep, and throw less energy North over the top of our block. Models still all over the place.
  20. beng
    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=30&mode=2 Let's hope this is close to the mark.
  21. beng
    Slurrey! - how rude
  22. beng
    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= If you look at the surface level pressure charts from the high resolution NAE - then it's more than likely that GFS still has the system too far East at the moment. Also the UKMO model is also further West and the Fax chart is further West too - so GFS perhaps still too progressive with Monday's system.
  23. beng
    Very tasty Fax chart http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=60&carte=2000
  24. beng
    http://www.cpc.ncep....O/foregfs.shtml I notice the GFS MJO forecasts are now stalling in Phase 6 - which is not what we want to see really (for cold at least). I suspect if GFS is correct about the upstream pattern, then it may be too flat at day 6 - with more blocking likely to hang on around UK/Europe and the cold not as easy to push away as modelled.
  25. beng
    The easterly wind direction might be key for the SE actually as the GFS currently models the shortest possible sea track down there. Basically even though the uppers are a little higher there (than the Midlands) - it may still be enough with the cold surface undercut off the continent. I think it's knife edge for my back yard (based off latest GFS) - glad I don't have to try and forecast it!
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