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Everything posted by StormChaseUK
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
StormChaseUK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
At this stage what is the probability of the heat staying put on Saturday 10, 20% ?- it all seems finely balanced. A move 50 or 100 miles here or there. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
StormChaseUK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Imagine in February if we were expecting 0C and snow one day and it was 20C the next. I don't think i have ever seen anything like what is modelled for Saturday before. Hard to process. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
StormChaseUK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
East Wales could possibly have a Colarado event Saturday, from 29C to 8C . Incredible. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
StormChaseUK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the models are over and under doing it wildly. I don't see how Wales can be 12C and over the Channel 44, 45C . -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
StormChaseUK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes if that was west to east not north to south would be explosive. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
StormChaseUK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Saturday is certainly fascinating temperature wise, it does seem strange you can go from 32C to 12, 13C in such a short time , like car gears going from Gear 5 to Gear 2 in one go , I would have thought there would be more of a gradual reduction in the temperatures. I wonder if the models are over-doing the heat and the subsequent cool down , seems far more feasible to go from 29C to 18C than 31C to 11C in some parts. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
StormChaseUK replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 06z introduces hotter temps into NW France compared to 00z run (from 31c to 37c in places) this hopefully might prolong the Saturday warmth a bit more. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
On Saturday afternoon I'm going to say Wrexham, Shrewsbury area , Liverpool will be cooler rainy, somewhere like Hereford still just about in the warmer , hotter air. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z is very interesting. The heat floats around and doesn't really go far from our shores. Proper summer weather. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The wind direction is interesting Friday evening, Maybe a thunderstorm event Midlands, SW or Wales Friday evening Southerly 6pm Northerly 3am -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
HP starting to come back in Sunday. I think the concern that a Northerly low would spoil things has turned into a thunderstorm event lowering temps on the Saturday and warming up again. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A 10c drop in temp between 6am to 9am Saturday in some places - this to me suggests some quite severe thunderstorms occuring during Friday night or early Saturday morning. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Forfeit next weekend for better weather afterwards. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like we sacrifice next weekend to the God of summer longer term. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is what I mean't in the earlier post, the weekend breakdown to cooler weather is short lived. As HP / warmth builds again. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That ? That was based on 00z run not seen 06z yet. Will check now. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The interesting part is that the high pressure and temps around 20-25c stick around for weeks - this is really good for outdoors, cycling etc. I don't really see any major breakdown in fine weather for a long time. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like the long awaited summer spell is finally about to arrive. 18z suggesting the warmth becomes not as intense but sticks around longer. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes the 12z brings in the warmth earlier and then starts to fade during weekend.