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Everything posted by StormChaseUK
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The pressure build over Russia does seem to cause low pressure to get stuck over us in summer months Very unlucky to be stuck between the 2 areas of high pressure -
Spring and Summer weather moans
StormChaseUK replied to Community Team's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Stunned how models can go from 26C to 9C in space of a day. Don't think I've seen such a big change before. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 06z might improve,.. ah down to single figures in east. oh dear. Amazing how the models can change so much in 12 hours -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Models flip flopping again, still fail to believe high pressure won't build from SW. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes we are heading to peak heating time of year now, the high pressure from SW will be too strong for those northerlies I did a have a feeling a few days ago the models were overdoing low pressure. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hmm I dunno, I'm still not convinced at this stage yet - I still think pressure will build in from SW. -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cloud cover can be overestimated this time of year. My app yesterday had 15, 16c and overcast today it's 18, 19c sunny and very warm. 2nd-5th june period is long way off to be accurate and it's a much better situation than having atlatic fronts come in with wash out. *06z is flipflopping all over the place- warmth is back -
Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
StormChaseUK replied to mushymanrob's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Could be a blip, might switch back on 12z or 18z -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Could end up as Belgium MCS , I will keep an eye on the streams though good luck -
Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Can confirm just had a thunderstorm here in ludlow, shropshire. Few bright flashes and loud thunder -
Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
StormChaseUK replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z has moved cold back for Wales, could be snow on hills of Wales, Boxing day -
Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread
StormChaseUK replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
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Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
i would say elevated lightning shows for South Coast, Somerset midnight onwards. Heavy rain Sat morning for elsewhere. Unless it's going to be 1990s standards huge MCS -
Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter
StormChaseUK replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I bet the weather turns around, on 28th September... lol -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Looks rubbish, onto July/August -
Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter
StormChaseUK replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Ouch. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes I suspect the nocturnal cooling is now coming into play. Expect to hear a few reports of "I just saw a flicker of lightning" in Midlands, southern England shortly. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
hail in france looks nasty -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Very warm humid evening out there now in Herefordshire, Gloucester, down to Somerset area. feels ripe for elevated later in the night -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Starting to see some nice clumps of cloud behind that blob in the south east, southern flank of that blob being most active. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes Poole I would expect to see the first of the flashes in night time darkness, Salisbury by about 1am my estimation -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
For overnight storms you need a rash on radar not a whopping great clump of thundery rain/cloud pancake. If you look west of Guernsey it has more of a thundery shower appearance on the radar. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
StormChaseUK replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The west could see elevated storms later in the night I reckon, even up to Midlands. The SE TS at the moment are channel homegrowns popping off.