coldfingers

Oh dear, i am in the 80mph+ gust zone.

Sadly so many people don't realise that the sea can drag the pebbles away from under ones feet as possibly happened here as reports say they were standing next to the sea, not swimming. I feel so very sorry for the parents!

Yes a tremendous squall has just arrived with torrential rain driven by the still very strong winds.

New shipping forecast still as severe for Wight WightGale warnings - Issued: 0948 UTC Sun 27 OctSouthwesterly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 soon, increasing violent storm force 11 later Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1625 UTC Sun 27 Oct Wind Southwest 7 to severe gale 9, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 for a time, perhaps hurricane force 12 later. Sea State Rough or very rough. Weather Rain then squally showers. Visibility Moderate or poor. This same forecast of possible hurricane force winds at sea goes from Wight right along to German Bight http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~All

So sad when people wont respect the sea when it is stormy! My kids were taught early in life how dangerous the sea can be. They have to be taught when one lives on the coast.

Probably why Jo suggested the regional threads.

What good are fork 'andles? Sorry, couldn't resist. It does look like this storm is still well and truly on despite all the doom-mongers on here. Tomorrow we will be sure.

Taken from Brighton Argus. http://www.theargus....ath_of_St_Jude/ Helen Chivers, forecaster for the Met Office, said the worst of the storm would hit at around 5am. She added: “First we will get the torrential rain. That should be around 9pm and it will continue until midnight. “Then at about 4am to 5am you will get the strong gusts. “They will be in the region of 70 mph to 80mph and in some more exposed areas up to 85mph to 90mph. “They will start to die down around 11am and the speeds should fall off fairly rapidly after that.â€

Taken from Brighton Argus. http://www.theargus.co.uk/news/10766502.Sussex_bracing_itself_for_wrath_of_St_Jude/ Helen Chivers, forecaster for the Met Office, said the worst of the storm would hit at around 5am. She added: “First we will get the torrential rain. That should be around 9pm and it will continue until midnight. “Then at about 4am to 5am you will get the strong gusts. “They will be in the region of 70 mph to 80mph and in some more exposed areas up to 85mph to 90mph. “They will start to die down around 11am and the speeds should fall off fairly rapidly after that.â€

I really can't see what you find silly about urging people to have torches and radios ready, It really doesn't take a lot to bring down trees in the kind of winds forecast and downed trees frequently means downed power line also. Better be prepared than stumble to the loo in the dark in the middle of the night like I did in '87. Feeling blind isn't fun and there wont be street-lights shining in the windows if it happens.

http://www.bognorregisbeach.co.uk/live Fishermen obviously not too worried about the incoming storm as their boats are still on the shingle. Perhaps because it is a low (neap) high tide but usually a storm this strong and the boats would be dragged up along the promenade.

That is dependant on how high and which side of the Downs, North or South.

Hi Andrew, just got in from walking the dog along the promenade further along at Felpham, he didn't like it a whole lot with the wind blowing his fur the wrong way. very gusty already along the beach and also across my garden as there is very little to stop the wind from the sea when it is this direction. Tonight is going to be interesting.

I'm sorry I can't explain that but this is the shipping and Gale warnings for my area Wight, it would certainly seem the funnelling effect could happen. Wight Gale warnings - Issued: 0948 UTC Sun 27 OctSouthwesterly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 soon, increasing violent storm force 11 later Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1030 UTC Sun 27 Oct Wind Southwest 7 to severe gale 9, becoming cyclonic severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 for a time, perhaps hurricane force 12 later. Sea State Rough or very rough. Weather Rain or squally showers. Visibility Moderate or poor.

Met Office shipping forecast and gale warning for my area Wight WightGale warnings - Issued: 0948 UTC Sun 27 OctSouthwesterly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 soon, increasing violent storm force 11 later Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1030 UTC Sun 27 Oct Wind Southwest 7 to severe gale 9, becoming cyclonic severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 for a time, perhaps hurricane force 12 later. Sea State Rough or very rough. Weather Rain or squally showers. Visibility Moderate or poor.Not sure when the next forecast is due out but I will be watching and hoping they downgrade that Violent Storm 11. Never yet seen them far out on the shipping forecast though so not looking good for tomorrow morning. I don't ever remember them giving a possible hurricane force 12 in the channel either. Sure it must have been sometime though.

I think most of us in the affected areas are well aware of that, what I see about it though is that if 45-50knot winds are already causing unusual damage to trees what can happen with the higher forecast ones. As has been pointed out many times on this thread, the problem is that the sodden ground and the trees still in full leaf (at least here in the extreme south they are) will all contribute to bringing down trees that wouldn't otherwise have fallen even in very high winds.

Interesting to see it is already at 954 pressure, or have I got that wrong? Just an interested observer so any correction would be good.

PIP, it might be good to remember that high tide is still 4 hours away in Bognor and as it is a Neap tide (to the layman that means it will be much lower than a Spring tide!) what is actually showing on the cam is that the tide is already way above predicted height for here at this time. Also be aware that Bognor is actually in a shallow bay and currently is sheltered by the Isle of Wight as the winds are WSW, when they turn SW/S then the waves will show better. I know, I live here.

Actually it looks to me as if they are focusing on what is likely to be the worst hit area, The South! Gusts here on the coast are already at 47knots/55mph with the Gale warnings for Violent Storm 11 later and perhaps Force 12 in the Channel. Yep looks to me already as if they are right on this one and if they are OTT then I am glad as it is warning me half a mile from the beach to be very careful tonight and tomorrow.

Thanks RJ, still glad I prepared as on the coast here it is still pretty windy and had 45knot gusts earlier that woke me so that is why I am on here at this unearthly hour of the morning. Even the dog looked at me as if I was mad when he saw me up.

Nick, he is young, only 14! He will learn but give him time and don't be hard on him. I do understand his frustration, and yours too!. Helping him learn will be a better lesson than haranguing him methinks.

Tomorrow is another day. wait and see was always the best policy but if John Holmes is doubtful about the 18z GFS then I am not convinced yet. He was a smashing forecaster!

Later in the day maybe but early? Nah, she might have to swim for it then.

Haha, it is after all being called the 'St Judes day Storm', wasn't he the patron saint of lost causes. Personally I view the 18z GFS run with a lot of suspicion. Let's see what tomorrow will bring.

Well we have winds currently gusting to 49mph. So I would be very surprised indeed if tomorrow and Monday is any less that that, I think the GFS has had to much too drink, it is the 'pub' run after all. Looks like it will be hard to sleep tonight anyway with a Force 9 wind blowing.