Harry

If you listen to Carol Kirkwood's online forecast, she does point towards the risk of thunder In my experience, listening to the 'chaps-in-the-know' on here is more reliable than the MetO/BBC when it comes to thundery events.

Thanks NickF/W09 - I stand corrected with my over-pessimism. Roll on tonight (and the snooker, of course!!)

Estofex largely as I had expected to be honest...Kent clipper the best realistic chance. Could be quite a painful watch as no doubt an immense blob will charge towards us during the night and veer off over Benelux. Although estofex even doubtful how much oomph it will have in reaching Benelux. Look forward to seeing experts' views later on...I note SE quarter under a 15%, echoing Dan's views on Convective Weather (formerly UKASF which I only learned yesterday).

To be fair, over the past few years I've witnessed a number of storms that were considerably more electrified than ATD suggested. That said, all I've witnessed today is some early rain and nice blue skies with fair weather cumulus so I can't really comment as to how accurate either has been. But for some isolated storms on a day where nothing particularly explosive was forecast 1,200+ does seem on the high side.

I thought that...when the cell was over St Albans it looked more distant than I'd expected...surprising amount of activity (if blitzortung is anything to go by) for relatively low topped cells. Activity appears to be increasing around the Notts/Lincs region....unsurprisingly of course ...in fact, ramping up really quite rapidly!

Indeed...exactly why I popped back into the forum. Even using rudimentary radar, both the storms appear to have some form of rotational element. The very basic MetO radar shows the northern cell with a traditional supercell hook appearance (like a times new roman comma). The more scientific NetW radar makes the southern cell look like a spiral galaxy (albeit anticyclonic) Blitzortung now at 862...not sure how accurate that is, despite how active the cells have been today.

Blitzortung sitting at 459 strikes for the UK so far today...expecting that to sit over a 1,000 by the end of today at this rate...not bad for an isolated t'storm sort of day EDIT - Make that 497

That storm NW of London is a peach...looks stunning on radar and nice amount of sferics to boot! Green eyed monster looming... Edit - the storm about the thump St Albans is the most active storm in Europe by a country mile...that doesn't happen too often in an average year

First couple of strikes in the Midlands now so things starting to get going for you. Some of the cells across the SW really starting to gather pace now.

Sun finally coming out here...whoop! Certainly the distribution of the convective activity currently in line with charts posted earlier by BF. The fact there is activity further south obviously pleases me...to see some nice Cb structures rolling north would please me in all honesty...not seen an anvil for probably nearing 6 months now

Agreed - an exciting couple of days coming up. I think supacell has hit the nail on the head for the best chance of storms today, any where from the Bristol Channel to the Wash seems best located, perhaps 20-25 miles or so south of that line and may 100 miles or so towards the N/NE of that line. I think the southern counties will probably miss most of the action today, though the sun has been glimpsing through the cloud this morning and it is a very warm and humid (feeling) airmass. Tomorrow looks a corker of a day in terms of warmth and sunshine, with the breeze increasingly steaming in from the south during the afternoon. While I am a little tickled with excitement over tomorrow night's prospects (given my thunder count for 2015 currently stands at NIL), in my experience early May is too early for imports and I, at this stage, predict while some no doubt heavy rain will trundle northwards with maybe the odd spark, I expect electrical activity to follow the French coast and into Belgium (if any), perhaps scraping the Kent/Sussex coast at best. I know its a little bit pessimistic, but in my experience perfectly realistic for this time of year.

We have sparks now across E/NE England.

Indeed, radar image showing some convective rainfall breaking out up north though, although no sparks so far. Looking briefly worldwide, some eye opening storms across SE USA and off of the SE coast of Aus at the moment - the activity from the SE Aus storms in particular is impressive for storms over the seas.

Sun breaking through now and it is noticeably warm...sitting here revising and a lovely breeze blowing through. Should be some energy up there for a storm or two, though alas I'm likely to be sandwiched between the two areas of interest to my North (N London/Midlands) and the South later (Southern coastal counties per Nick F's forecast) Still...its the first real prospective day of 2015 for me of seeing at least some Cb formations

When I checked the charts I couldn't see anything in the way of CAPE/negative LIs. Incidentally, the symbol now is a cloud, lol

MetO showing a thunderstorm symbol for London on Friday......

Indeed, this nice plume of warmth has definitely woken me up! Absolute stunner of a day today, as was yesterday. Will be surprised if somewhere across the South doesn't exceed 25C today (according to the Met Gravesend leading the way at 24.6C) Bit of a disappointing start to the year convection wise...very little in the way of 'April showers' in these parts and with High pressure dominating for the foreseeable, could certainly be very shower-less. Still, as an opener, if this year turns out to be anywhere near as thundery as last year for my area I'll be one extremely happy chappy

BBC last night and the Metro this morning talking about risk of an isolated thunderstorm or thundery showers (respectively). There was an impressive storm last year (early June?) in the Reading area which blew up under fairly dominant High pressure conditions, but those occurrences are fairly rare for the UK (and it was June with a lot more heat/moisture on tap). Not anticipating much today, although the site of a nice Cb (even if distant) would be nice...haven't seen nice convection for what seems like months and months

Hi Sarah, I have some photographs I am happy to share with you of storms here and the US. Will email you them.

Storms appear to be slightly further west which are developing to our South...which is encouraging

I live in NW Kent but very close to the SE London borders (DA2), I have been trying to change my avatar for months but the admin team can't seem to help - been watching the lightning for the past couple of hours (another flash as I type). I think I'm far enough away so the low level stratus/cumulus mess is not blocking the lightning - just been a continuous line of Cbs, like brilliantly bright flash bulbs.Looks like another thunderstorm forming behind this latest one, increasing in activity. Awesome

Hasn't moved further east from what I can see...if anything it looks like it's creeping extremely slowly westwards

It's so bright I can't believe its not closer to you

Agreed, it's stunning to watch (all along the southern and eastern horizon for me). Facing the window watching Gogglebox so I don't miss all of it.Tad disappointed I'm just outside the yellow warning, but I can't complain!! October/November the past few years have been awesome for this kind of weather - crystal clear skies around active thunderstorms - (huge sprawling flash as I type)

Had thunder and lightning yesterday and today. The last hour the sky has been alive with lightning and still going strong! Up to 16 thunder days for 2014 (and I think I may have forgotten to log one or two). Fantastic year