Harry

Looks a bit like a slight eastward shunt to me on that Euro4 model, W09, with convection possibly being limited to the eastern areas. Looking less and less likely for a westward push, although obviously not impossible.

If I remember correctly these storms formed from a similar sort of set up currently expected for Friday https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GtwvAnVpIS4

Another 24 hours of intense model gazing it is then before we look south for action (if any) to start firing to the south. Let's keep fingers crossed for further westerly revision across the models - any easterly revisions will be catastrophic for most.

Hear hear!! Remember 17th July last year very well and iirc around 23rd July the previous year, went to bed feeling a bit doom and gloom (between 11pm and midnight) without so much as a gnat's boob showing on radar for my locale. Within the hour storms exploded and put on a hell of a show 12z GFS due imminently...fingers cross for a westward shunt :-)

The last notable storms I recall firing over the channel were those on 6th August 2008...they were beasts

I've started something now.....lol

Similar, but with electric shock stimuli as opposed to leather!

Indeed...I wouldn't mind a thundery thrashing AM and PM

I don't like this!! 06z to around 11z storms are usually pony! Would be a much better scenario if this didn't happen and the convection triggered later in the morning/early afternoon (sounding picky now I know lol)

Yes you can be greedy, feel free!! It's frustrating as a subtle revision could see it spread across much of England (or vanish altogether). If either the Low can evolve less quickly and/or the ridge over Europe can spread its tentacles a fraction further west, the outcome may be completely different. It is pretty apparent that while any convective setup could see critical variations right down to the wire, this one in particular is very much the case!!

My interpretation of the GFS 06z is that it is a slight improvement - flicking between the 00z and 06z it looks at first like a subtle shift east, however the plume appears to become more established and appears to enhance the instability, as well as continue the threat of overnight action across S England Thursday into Friday. Lol

Indeed, this morning's FAX does extend the plume further west too (judging by the positioning of the warm front)

Yup! Still a complete mystery. 00z GFS certainly the best of the last four of its runs, with now the suggestion of storms across southern England during the overnight period of Thursday into Friday. What it also suggests is the heat clinging on a bit longer, although yet another shunt west would be better, on two grounds; first, far more people get some enjoyment and second, the storms likely to be experienced currently aren't quite generated during the peak heating of the day. Still, 48 hours to go so still very much can change (either for the better or for the worse) Potentially very erroneous observation - my iPhone app is now saying 27C with thunderstorm logo for Friday (currently going through Sidcup on the train). That's the highest temperature it has shown this week

Am going to go to bed and hope for a pleasant surprise in the morning...hope more than expectation!

GFS 18z rolling out...fingers crossed!!! Edit - John Hammond really ramping up the thunderstorm risk for Friday however very clear that it could be further west, or, could be further east. Mentioned possible warnings too. Most noticeable was the charts seeming to show a more westerly extent of the heat, certainly compared to earlier GFS runs GFS update - not great. Clearly a westerly shunt on the latest run but keen to reduce the instability for the UK which I struggle to understand. First impression is 18z GFS is a bit weird...wants the plume to reach us then totally reorientate (as if specifically to keep the action away!)

Awesome, thanks W09. Bought my camcorder this evening, fingers crossed it gets to see some action Friday Will anxiously await the GFS 18z output to see if there is a shift back west. The perfect scenario would be a decent shift west to allow widespread thunderstorms across England and hopefully Wales, trundling east to allow some nice evening light shows as it all clears East...one can wish at least

So, my parting shot before much later on tonight is that our plume event is rapidly retreating east. There is a window of about 06z to 12z for SE England, which is the most rubbish time frame for storms IMO. By 18z there is a massive scope for storms from NW France through Benelux and beyond...but all off shore at this stage. Unfortunately I do not have MLCAPE charts available, but it's looking increasingly dire...unless of course european models still indicate GFS has over-egged the eastward shift.

I'm going to be leaving for my train soon, but based on what GFS has churned out already (up to 06z Friday) the eastward shift slowly but surely continues

LOL Let's hope 12z delivers us all some good news Wouldn't it be ironic if there is a westward shift, storms erupt up the central slice of England and across the Channel/N France, naturally, and I'm left wallowing in a humid but dry void between two areas of thundery activity like a pathetic jellyfish left splayed across a sludge ridden beach at low tide. Alas - that's preferable to France/Benelux hogging the honours.

I have to say the 06z GFS is pretty vile to be honest. Far more eastward shift than I was anticipating last night (I was expecting some but not that much). I'm sure MLCAPE is more impressive than SBCAPE currently shows, however optimism is rapidly fading. It's quite incredible how rapidly things have devolved just from the 18z output yesterday (although the 00z MLCAPE kindly posted by BF earlier is pleasing!!). Alas, it has been yo-yo-ing the past few days so could still push a bit further west. If the advancing Atlantic storm killing influence can hold off just for a few hours longer can currently envisaged by GFS, it will allow so much more potential to spread across England and Wales. But given the 2-3 day timeframe is approaching and it's currently looking pretty tragic, a sense of foreboding is rife. Oh get a grip man!!

Regional forecast on MetO better than yesterday though... Dry and relatively warm with variable cloud and sunshine Thursday. Perhaps cloudier, but warmer Friday with a chance of thunderstorms later. Then, dry with sunny spells for much of Saturday.

Numerous times every year we have this predicament - how quickly will the Atlantic push in. It is not inevitable the Atlantic progression won't slow - I can recall occasions where 12+ hours inaccuracy even a short range has taken place - obviously such an error can work for or against us.

00z is depressing - alas, GFS falling in line with euro models. Now it's knife edge as to whether anywhere sees anything of interest - optimism plummeting I have to say.

It does my nut in these charts lol - don't know why I'm doing it to myself. 18z shifts it 50 miles or so further East to 12z, but still keeps most of England and Wales in the bullseye. It hangs around for about 12-18 hours before shunting off so is an extremely narrow window of opportunity. Let's review again this time tomorrow.

GFS 18z about to unveil its latest punt...this was yesterday by far the most miserable of the runs yesterday so will be interesting to see what it says.