Harry

For those who ask that periodic question, "are these AcCas"....those are definitely AcCas...nice little beggers too!

Cloudy!!??? Here I can honestly say I can't remember the last time I saw such crystal clear skies.

Other than perhaps N Wales and Scotland tomorrow, nowhere this week is nailed on and we are all waiting with baited breath. The models cannot get to grips with this situation (look at the disparity between them all - GFS, ECM, UKMO, NMM, WRF all saying something different). Midlands are in the firing line IMO for Friday, especially if the warm front fires - furthermore, I have noticed with each run recently the hot and humid air drives west across France (which is a good thing) before drifting North across C/S/SE England. I really wouldn't rule anything out...what is being charted at the moment almost certainly not turn out like it...and, for what its worth, no model at the moment is giving me huge confidence for my area either.

Oi oi oi, don't be greedy now! Latest models I've seen suggests much of Scotland is going to get pummelled tomorrow.

06z NMM (NetWx high res) keen to develop storms much earlier and further south across S Wales tomorrow. Look what it churns out over the N Sea after storms fire over Wales!! To be honest, I am still baffled by the divergence in all of the models just 24 hours out...which (if any) will prevail I wonder!?

Cheers Paul! Certainly expecting nothing today, just keeping my fingers crossed for Weds night as working from home Thursday (lie in, yay!). Friday certainly sounding exciting, but too variable at the moment.

Hi Paul, are you seeing potential for early hours imports Thursday then? I'm just not seeing it

06z GFS still keen on storms developing into the SE tomorrow...hmmmmm!!

Would certainly expect that to expand northwards. Hope you're optimism is correct VillagePlank...soul destroying when these setups come along and fail to detonate.

Yes, pretty much - there'll be modest convective inhibition, meaning that energy stays suppressed. Further north there is a trough moving through leading to destabilisation, whereas further south there is no such trough. I've never quite understood to be honest why the CF doesn't do more. Some models however are keen to develop more precip further south. I'm not getting my hopes up any more to be honest...even the end of the week is looking more and more like a clipper situation!

Indeed....but it appears much more keen to break out thunderstorms across a much broader area Wednesday PM/evening. AAARRRRRGGGHHH its making my head hurt lol

The WRF-NMM charts only go up to early hours of Friday. Which charts are you using?

Indeed - the NMM however has the storms at their strongest over northern and north eastern Scotland later, strongly resembling an MCS to me (or even two distinct MCS'). However, I may update it tomorrow if the charts start jiggling around a bit (as I'm sure they will) GFS also keen to break out some storms down the eastern side of England, but it only appears to be GFS with that view at the moment. UKMO downplaying it all at the moment, but interestingly wanting storms across SW England during tomorrow morning. If the divergence between all the models tells us anything its that you DON'T COUNT your chickens.

Here is my take on tomorrow, for a bit of fun! I am not a meteorologist, trained forecaster or the like (so don't rely on this above and beyond the established sources). Might update it tomorrow depending on how the models develop through today, but that's my take based on current information.

Yup you are correct - this is tomorrow's forecast which is pretty much exactly what I'd envisaged.

Based on GFS and NMM together, far N Wales, NW England, N England, C/S/E/NE Scotland is the place to be Wednesday afternoon/night. Further S it appears it will stay dry until at least Thursday.

Latest runs not too positive for the SE IMO. Am thinking we might be relying on a reincursion of heat and humidity later in the week as I'm not convinced this first pulse will pop! Hope for model shift over the next few model runs, as Friday/Saturday not reliable enough for me at this timeframe

Indeed, though am always sceptical with imports. Happy to wait until Wednesday lunchtime before I get too carried away. These could easily slide just 50 or so miles further east sending them up the channel (or, not develop at all).

This isn't quite right, insofar as a lack of moisture would not aid instability (when you add the moisture below a lid of dry air and heat it, like a pressure cooker, you get the instability). I would say you are correct as regards the dry air over Spain hence lack of storms. When you get a Spanish Plume the instability is generated by the Spanish plateau and the Pyrenees to the north of Spain. The dry air is forced up over higher ground, while moisture feeds in underneath it from the Med and the Bay of Biscay. This then generates a huge pressure cooker over northern Spain, Portugal and in particular France. This drifts northwards or northeastwards - when a trough, front, jet streak, convergence zone or flabby low enables it to rocket up through the atmosphere, you get pretty active thunderstorms. At the moment over France there is merely heat and instability - lacking is any real trigger to break the 'lid' of dry air to allow storms to develop - if you look at the FAX chart the fresher, dry air trigger is way out west so the pressure cooker simply builds. Through Wednesday and beyond the fresher air, fronts, troughs and flabby lows become more influential so expect some big storms to fire over the UK and France...triggers may not be present everywhere so the heat and humidity may just ebb away, while in other areas, torrential rain, frequent lightning and perhaps the odd funnel may occur. Currently there is uncertainty in the models as to where those troughs might be, so doubt exists as to where the storms may be. Currently favoured appear to be C/N Wales, NW and N England (perhaps W Midlands and NI), S and C and E Scotland. Slim chance (I think) of potent imported storms across the SE early hours/morning of Thursday and perhaps some thundery showers from residual humidity during the early afternoon. Question mark in the models currently as to whether the hot and humid air feeds back in Thursday night and Friday, enabling further risk of (potentially violent) storms spreading NW/N from the SE before clearing again through Saturday. Without doubt a very exciting few days nationwide and it's going to be good fun trying to unpick the detail. Would suggest everybody gets the batteries charged whether camera, camcorder or smart phone as storms could crop just about anywhere

That's possibly not a bad shout.

Hmmm...may be premature but 12z signally a bit of an easterly shunt mid-week...also only keen to break out storms (for the SE corner) in the Thames Estuary ......doubt beginning to creep in for my neck of the woods I have to say!

Yeah that's not right at all...I used to live in Wilmington (in Dartford Borough), now live a few minutes round the corner, Dartford is NEVER 10C cooler than London - in actual fact, my experience driving from C London to Dartford was that if anything the temperature often INCREASED as you headed from London to Dartford. This makes sense, given that often Gravesend (next town (East) along from Dartford) often registers the highest temperature in the UK. Unless there is a strong N Sea breeze blowing from the NE (in which case London will not register 34C), then the temperature predictions are clearly wrong.

Wait til Wednesday - it will be 24-25C by 10am!

Indeed, but not an exclusive rule (as we know) particularly if any MCS features develop, which can have a mind of their own and stick two proverbial fingers up at steering winds...."oh NE to Benelux is it, nah mate, I fancy a bit of a change and a northerly trip up the English heartlands thank you very much"

WRF-NMM indeed going for very little away from more N and W areas. GFS by contrast breaking out widespread thundery activity. WRF-NMM interestingly also not wanting to deliver much across France which I find hard to accept. So, huge divergence between WRF-NMM and GFS...at the current time I'm more inclined to favour GFS.