Harry

Yup turning into a great night for some

Looking increasingly like an MCS that cluster over the NW.

Let's just keep our fingers crossed for Friday night/early Saturday, JH...if the charts still look like this Tomorrow night I'll be a seriously happy bunny (providing it triggers!!)...otherwise in 2015 it's three plumes, no cigar.

Hmm...agreed...pretty poor I think but not unknown from them.Storms going ape now across N Midlands/the North. With one eye on Friday, seems it's downgrade after downgrade...MetO going rain perhaps thundery...one NMM model also keen to downgrade All this after hours and hours of crying about the lack of storms up north and look...goldmine of activity! Durham cell shrinking now.

Well that is an awesome webcam (apart from the rotating) and proof that blitzortung is not overreacting

I'm detecting a hook on the rear flank (SW corner) of the storm approaching Durham...heavily pixelated radar returns...would anticipate there being large hail also in there.

Fingers, toes, the lot all crossed I am however firmly sceptical of any real thunderstorm threat tomorrow...certainly any that is going to last that long. One of the NMM models does suggest a modest 500-700j/kg CAPE returning across the SE during tomorrow, though GFS disagrees on this point.

I think the storms in the Bay of Biscay are the most active I've ever seen!!!!

Christ, funny how the moaning stops and the accurate forecast starts to pan out...enjoy!!!! Durham/Newcastle area in for a right treat

Just popped on to remark at the awesomeness of that cell north of Ripon. A perfectly formed beast on radar which, if any storm today vaguely resembled a severe, supercellular thunderstorm, that is it. Kicking out impressive lightning and has a huge core. Pics and vids please

Cool! Cheers mate

Inclined to agree with CDF - while they may sustain some thunder for a time, they will quickly lose oomph I feel. Although, post frontal instability (and any residual moisture) doesn't always show on charts - hope more than expectation. NMM and GFs charts for Friday night are a dream...which is a shame because in 60 hours if it still looks like that, that is scarily accurate I've only got 2KM and 5KM and they both look pants lol. Where can I access those charts?

Hmm...huge curve ball from NMM WRF - wants no precip for the SE tomorrow, but instead breaking out showers and possible storms across Midlands, tracking NNE....interesting! Just how slow is this CF lol

Its detritus from earlier pop-fart storms across the SW...if it's stratified mess then it may just be dampening the energy. Shear only aids nice tall columns of air (i.e thunderheads)...it doesn't really do anything to thin layers of rain bearing clouds. The NMM model yesterday suggested it may develop into something...wouldn't rule intensification out.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ You should see the video on the main page.

That'll be a no then...thanks for that!FYI Friday night's potential could affect well over 60% of the population...not just my little corner of the world. Plus.......it would get me away from the moaning and bickering on here!!!

Look at Nick Miller's forecast online from about an hour ago I suspect with the CF apparently dragging its heels there may be some model changes...his online forecast though looks awesome and not just for the South!!

Can't see another 35C myself - plus the CF is not merely a dividing line between 35C and 20C air - there are gradients within that.Re the rants and moans, I've been following storms, clouds and charts for around 15 years so am much more relaxed. As I for one banged on about several times different models, all computated by experts in meteorology and which carry out billions of calculations a second, all said different things. When that happens it means there is much uncertainty. We said it, MetO said it, Estofex said it...serious doubt and uncertainty. As I posted last night, the weather is never wrong, merely models and interpretations are that are (IMO) about as good as they realistically can get - bear in mind every cubic foot of the of the 40-50,000ft high atmosphere cannot be monitored 24/7. They are always best guesstimates! I for one think the forecasts have been fairly accurate considering (SO FAR!!!!). I'm sat here in currently 30C heat with high humidity under clear skies, melting away....a deluge about now would be marvellous - that said I'm putting the new garden furniture to good use on another note, I have many a time has to suffer hot and humid busts (ie where storms were promised) to no avail - staying up sometimes to 2-3am. Other nights I've not bothered waiting as no real prospects to be woken by massive storms...plumes are like that...years living in Kent has taught me that (which by the way regularly rates poorly on GFS Storm charts chiefly I guess as we are surrounded by water...local knowledge/experience). Alas, on a different note, can I propose a new separate thread for Friday night's potential??

NOTHING??? well what's happened there then!! Chill??? Any suggestions gratefully received lol!

Think I can see anvils through the haze to my South but can't be sure

Nope - the turrets have blown up Paul and more behind it...GFS may have nailed this!!

Elevated eruptions to my East...that will upset northerners without storms I'm sure! Any consolation, they aren't coming my way!

For what it's worth, and perhaps rather unsurprisingly, some nice (stunning in fact) AcCas south of London - I'm on an earlier train (upon which it's about 45-50C easily - driver has just apologised) so can't photograph it. The last time I saw AcCas like that it resulted in awesome storms later that night....here's hoping for us slowly boiling in sunny SE! I'd be surprised if more storms do not fire - hang in there

Im keeping my fingers crossed Paul...few sferics detected recently!

MetO have gone from severe thunderstorms, to thundery showers, to thundery rain. Who knows what to make of it, but there will be huge instability over France during the day Friday, all sweeping up across southern England from the south...I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Friday night/Saturday AM will be epic