Harry

Latest Beeb forecast suggesting the destabilising front could be further West...still all up in the air!!!

WRF-NMM 5KM 6z out...bit of an upgrade in my view though still relatively restricted to the SE quarter IMO. Saturday 0100 Saturday 0400 Saturday 0700 It is the briefest of plumes, almost a glancing punch...could be a smacker though

Some of the NMM and GFS runs seem to suggest this, Paul

Well, Surrey - some of the NMM runs are showing some explosive development across C/S/SE England and EA late Friday into early Saturday, with indications of MUCAPE in the region of 1,500 - 2,500 with LIs across the far SE of -7 to -8, more widely -4 to -6. Looking at the UKMO projected rainfall, thats what their model is suggesting.

Where is this chart from Paul? Are you predicting an extension to the Estofex Lvl 2?

Indeed...still some model divergence...however, many do seem to now be pointing towards an explosion of activity late evening over the Channel, spreading northwards. NMM-WRF and GFS on the same wavelength for some 1000 - 1500J/Kg MUCAPE (near 2,500 on NMM) spilling into C/S/SE England. Both GFS/NMM also thinking that SBCAPE and MUCAPE will begin to spill in from the East across EA, Midlands and S England during the afternoon, though it seems unlikely this will trigger. But it does suggest perhaps more extensive moisture and instability feeding in. I made that comment a few weeks ago - while I love supercells and their stunning features, I'd rather not have them over my house

NMM-WRF 2KM 6z rolling out...pointing towards some pretty sharp precip and potential storms I'd suggest in a rough line from say Wrexham to Newcastle (what a few days for you lot if that materialises!!!). Isolated in nature so likely to be hit and miss!! Note that this chart is for 9pm.

Some of the rain just moving through had a more convective element on the rear flank so perhaps something to keep a sly eye on as it trundles NNE. Sun starting to emerge.

Surrey posted the key charts earlier...the heat and humidity is in place over N France (product of their southerly winds). A kink in the isobars associated with the Low to our west introduced slightly fresher Atlantic air. If all goes to plan then that pool of goodness a few hundred miles away should briefly return tomorrow night for some and potentially go bang. Still a good 36 hours until that time however.

FYI - rogue strike in the Channel.

Not the first time though FBFBe...let's not count our chickens just yet (as we said to the moaners yesterday) and keep all hopes on the early hours of Saturday

Indeed, Friday has been signalling potential now for several days. Some models hesitant about the extent of any outbreaks while others show explosive development.Two words of caution: First, both Estofex and MetO have expressed uncertainty about affected areas and timing. Second, high instability is only modelled for the SE quarter (currently!) so I would not based on the current charts expect as much thundery activity further north and west. The models however are changeable, but at present I think the MetO have thrown too wide a blanket for thunderstorms - just my opinion though, as ever when I'm being pessimistic, I hope I'm wrong.

I don't believe the channel has much to do with it...the energy and high instability is simply not here but across in France/Benelux...they still have he southerly plume while we have more stable, fresher Atlantic air. This is evident as the storms are losing activity before they reach the channel.

Looks ominous...suggests fair bit of moisture up there!

Much more northerly veer on that stuff over the channel.

It's the rebranded UKASF, who incidentally pretty much nailed yesterdayWww.convectiveweather.co.uk Some strikes over the SW, lol...bloody typical as I sit here sweltering under grey stratified mess! Seems to be as he heavier rain is arriving there...wonder if that will happen nearer my neck of the woods.

Indeed,meeting cloudier and darker here, alas no sferics remotely close. Speaking of close, remarkably humid feeling here suddenly. Not sure whether that will translate into storms judging by activity taking thus far. Seems to be thoughts on Convective Weather UK, Paul

Chris Fawkes' forecast on BBC (see website) is interesting, if not bizarre. Point at French storms running up SW, C and S England then perhaps more intense storms up north with threat of "large hail". Not sure what to make of that!!

Personally, I've never had much of a feeling today's will. While warm, the air feels much fresher and the sky too stable for me....happy to be proven wrong, but I can't see it. My attention is on Friday night!

Encouraging Estofex has issued an early Lvl 2 for W Belgium and NW France...with usual caveats applying insofar as they appear somewhat dubious as to what may develop. 18z WRF-NMM very pleasing to the eye, showing high MUCAPE and breaking out storms. Instability only here for a few hours however so very narrow window of opportunity! GFS shows modest SBCAPE and I assume MUCAPE and does break out storms through the night, keen however to keep the heaviest of these further east.

Aha IF! If MetO care only to give a yellow for what's up north right now, they won't bat an eyelid at some elevated rain (by the time it reaches us, if it reaches us!)French MCS looks like weakening to me right now

Oh good Estofex 50% line pretty much over my head which is more than today! Getting increasingly despondent re Friday night - fingers crossed it doesn't keep downgrading

Convective Weather forecast just issued...kind of how I imagined to be honest

New active cells firing further west in BoB...hence possibly the weather alert posted above by a SW chap Look at the new cells forming off of W France...possibly these heading your way

What are your thoughts on it keeping energy if it comes the way of the UK? I can't find any SB or MUCAPE that would realistically keep it going.