Harry

GFS and NMM5 both give you some potential - would charge the camera just in case

Worth clarifying that not everywhere in the SE had storms a few weeks ago. Also, there were a few reliable models directing towards the SE being hit so it wasn't a surprise to be fair (not to me anyway). Tomorrow night less clear cut...the chart posted above from UKWW I think is pretty much on the money and, after my review of the models a few hours ago, is how I saw my own risk chart looking tomorrow. As of this evenings model outputs I think it's pretty much on the money.

As is this for my location same time tomorrow night, lol

1999 was the year that cemented storm phobia to complete fascination for me...what a year all round. Quick moan about flying ant season which kicked off in style this evening - millions of the buggers EVERYWHERE - landing on your head, clothes, legs...irritating

Love it...agreed that the Synoptics are very similar indeed. Would love to know the full extent of storms for that set up.

Latest viewings still fairly positive although as ever, divergences rife. MetO Invent charts coming into range, showing convective precipitation breaking out well north of London - say Birmingham northwards roughly. Doesn't go beyond 2200 yet but this ties in with the latest Beeb run. Not taking this forecast seriously yet as we all know what the Beeb predicted two weeks ago as little as 6 hours before the event...hopelessly wrong. Time will tell. Euro4 which was equally hopeless two weeks ago very much in line with MetO Beeb projections currently. Again not taking this seriously yet. NMM 5, the most accurate two weeks ago IMO, keen to break out convective precipitation in an arc from S Wales initially (from around 5-6pm, possibly surface based tapping into available SBCAPE) spreading NEwards with more elevated (likely) convection breaking out across C/S England around 23-00z spreading NE. Eastern most areas (Kent/Sussex/Essex) possibly missing out on this run but wouldn't take locations too literally. The most generous MUCAPE values on offer here, typically 800-1,500 j/kg with LIs typically -4 to -6 (locally to the S Coast the higher end). GFS much less generous with MUCAPE levels (around 500 j/kg) but much more extensive with precipitation coverage. My interpretation of the GFS is a favouring of more eastern areas for the more intense precip but it is a more crude precipitation chart than NMM. So in summary, quite a bit of model divergence. Based on projected instability I struggle to agree with UKMO/Euro4, which were comprehensively wrong two weeks ago...that of course is not to say they will be wrong this time round, but I'm favouring currently NMM 5. Will have a stab at a revised risk chart tomorrow lunch time once the models have had a few more runs. I'm not sure Estofex have released any forecasts this week...might be holiday season for them.

Don't let the MetO be the primary guide as to whether thunderstorms take place.....believe me. I suspect in all seriousness it's because of the slight variations in model output. I wouldn't be surprised for something to pop up later tonight or early tomorrow, initially for the SW/Wales then more broadly for much of England. But...thunderstorms do not always carry a MetO warning.

I think the dilemma is the behaviour of the models. Two weeks ago most models, even less than 24 hours pre-event, were suggesting similar to what is shown currently. Outbreaks of extensive precipitation chiefly across the Midlands/SW/Wales all trundling NE across the Midlands and NE. BBC Weather (not the only one by any stretch) followed the majority and predicted outbreaks of thunderstorms across these areas, away from the SE. Few models, as were favoured by myself and a number of others, preferred the GFS/NMM 5 resolutions which suggested convective outbreaks would primarily occur further east, where the instability was modelled to be (shock horror). Currently, the BBC is modelling torrential downpours and thunderstorms in similar areas as before. I would agree, there appears to be marginally more instability on this occasion further N and W than there was two weeks ago. Furthermore, there is SBCAPE across C/S/SW England/Wales which if GFS is correct, will yield some surface based storms before the elevated storms kick in later. On this occasion we have a thundery low drifting N/NE from France which as ever brings an air of unpredictability and complexity...models currently think this wont serve to detonate any storms over N France, but the trough and CF advancing from the primary Atlantic Low will (little over the Continent therefore limited potential for imports it appears)....how they all interact is causing uncertainty and hence caution. I think by tonight/tomorrow the place will be buzzing

GFS 06z a move in the right direction...keen to break out (to my eye) surface based convection across Wales/SW mid to late afternoon, before (likely) elevated storms break out in similar locations to two weeks ago, spreading north-eastwards. GFS also appears to have ever so slightly advanced the pace and degree of instability. GFS definitely my favourite model at the moment

It is looking like potential for lightning has increased I would suggest based upon the latest NMM. Indicating very marginal mid level instability along a line roughly from the SE up towards Northern Ireland, extending across NW England and into southern Scotland. Most instability and therefore highest probability of thunderstorms exists across SE, C/S England, E Midlands, EA up to around the Wash. Highest potential for surface based storms currently resides around C/S England, parts of the SW and Wales through the afternoon and evening, however precip does not seem break out until later in the evening so unlikely to be much surface based convection. Latest NMM 5 keen to break out storms across S/E Midlands running NW, however I cannot emphasise enough that places south of say Birmingham do not benefit from much instability, so lightning coverage likely to be much more limited. MUCAPE coverage across the south is more extensive and stronger than yesterday. Latest NMM 5 also keen to restrict convective precip across the SE now, with little suggestion of imports...in all likelihood, the arrival of the flabby Low over N France during the evening, in my view, is likely to deflect any continental activity towards Benelux. Still very changeable therefore but potential still around for thunderstorms tomorrow evening....for SE'rners, outlook less good than yesterday in my view (although abundance of energy there if it can be realised)

Early thoughts for Thursday from convective weather UK Day 3 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 16 Jul 2015 - 05:59 UTC Fri 17 Jul 2015 ISSUED 20:59 UTC Tue 14 Jul 2015 ISSUED BY: Dan On Thursday, an Atlantic low will be located to the SW of Ireland, moving progressively due north. At the surface, a warm front will migrate northwards across the southern half of Britain, allowing poleward-advection of a very warm, moist low-level airmass across the aforementioned areas. The arrival of this high ThetaW air will be quite late in the day, as diurnal heating begins to subside, and will probably act as a cap to any potential surface-based convection given limited maximum temperatures in the upper 20s Celsius, despite increasing dewpoints through the evening hours. Consequently latest trends in the GFS, for example, are beginning to back away from producing sfc-based convection in the model world - not completely ruled out in the early evening hours at present, but an ever-declining trend. Greatest attention is then turned to the potential for elevated thunderstorms to develop during the mid/late evening hours and thereafter, as the forward-side of the large-scale Atlantic upper trough, and an attendant shortwave, serve as the focus for convective initiation. Naturally at this range and global model resolution, there will be a fair amount of uncertainty as to the exact detail in development and areas affected. Current thinking is a few scattered thunderstorms may develop during the mid/late evening hours across some southern counties of England, with activity becoming more widespread as the plume axis tracks northeastwards. Greatest instability will be towards the SE, and hence higher probabilities (SLGT) of lightning have been included across portions of the Home Counties / East Anglia / Lincolnshire (21z-03z), with storms probably moving offshore across the North Sea through the early hours of Friday, despite heavy rain also affecting parts of northern England, albeit with a lower potential for lightning. Given high values of PWAT, local flooding is the primary concern (along with lightning), with a low risk of significant hail at this stage. There may be some imported elevated thunderstorms that develop across/near Cherbourg peninsula and travel across the English Channel, but this potential is less-supported in the global models currently (hence only an ISOL in these areas for now). Several models also simulate an increase in lightning potential over the Irish Sea, running NNEwards into adjacent parts of Cumbria / S/SE Scotland 00z-06z. Have included a SLGT here for now to highlight slightly higher chances of lightning here also. This is an advance forecast and should be used as a rough guide, as there will undoubtedly be changes made over the coming 48 hours, as is often the case in these convective events. Very much agree with this...especially reference to the uncertainty

Excellent! Could be good timing that's for sure. I would emphasise however that the models aren't quite as consistent as I'd like and I'm a little anxious as to whether the decent instability will actually arrive. GFS for example over the past few days has been gradually delaying the arrival of the warm/hot and humid air. On the latest BBC forecast for example they indicate the warm front down over SW France to start Thursday. But, while delaying the plume trends have been to slightly increase CAPE...the same can't be said unfortunately for MUCAPE which looks a lot more meagre compared with the NMM for example. The timing of the Atlantic push against the creeping plume will be critical for our chances I feel. I am a lot less confident currently compared with two weeks ago. Furthermore to add a further fly to the stormy ointment, a bit of disparity as to where the focal point of any storms might be...BBC (and therefore UKMO I'm guessing) favouring C/S England (Beeb even showing lightning across Wales/NW which I am quite dubious of), little showing in the SE. NMM 5 by contrast tending to favour the SE whereas further west appears more frontal. 18z due out shortly.

Having had another look at GFS, gradually pulling back the CAPE however intensifying it over France. MUCAPE levels meagre on GFS. Much better on NMM 5 (both 12z runs). So, in short still the chance for a complete drop in potential, even very close to the event. Even on NMM 5 which is the more favourable chart currently, instability is a very glancing blow the SE corner (anywhere east of IoW and south of Norwich as a rough approximation)

Ah you see now 3rd/4th lacked thunder for me - immense amounts of lightning, but very little thunder, even from very close IC bolts (I.e right overhead).I'd take 2-3 strikes per minute with awesome peeling thunder over the electrical disco of early July to be honest or to clarify, I'd take anything over the stratiform bore-fest currently in-situ lol Certainly close to the 48 hour window

I'm quite surprised by the lack of interest at the moment....maybe many people all stormed out after the nuts events of two weeks ago. Potential has been there quite consistently the past few days, with the first mention from the Beeb yesterday (that I heard anyway)

Based upon current information, this is what I'd plump with in terms of storm risk. You'll note that in comparison to my last forecast (for fun) it is not as extensive and not as high probability...on the 3rd July I plumped with a very high risk across EA/Lincs/Cambs area (probabilistic only) with a severe zone around C/S/SW England. So, to confirm I don't think what is shown on the charts at the moment, we are looking at anything like what we had two weeks ago. But, as I say, currently fairly decent potential for storms in similar sorts of areas as two weeks ago...noting the easterly shift warning in my earlier post.

Looking a bit close for comfort at the moment, slight nudges east. Looks to my mind very similar to two weeks ago...nudge of warm and humid air, of similar temperatures and humidity, squeezing in from the continent within a warm sector. Current FAX chart depicts a trough, as per two weeks ago, forming within that sector during the late evening hours. CF sweeps in behind clearing the warm and humid air way through the early hours. Jet stream nudging from the SW presents some marginal risk of severe. One key difference of note is that the instability predictions are, for ease, around 50% less than two weeks ago. NMM 5 currently going for MUCAPE in the region of 1000-1500, LIs of typically -4 to -5. Last week in contrast was in the order 2,000 to 2,500 with LIs of -7 to -8. Both NMM 5 and GFS are keen to break out convective precipiation, likely to be thundery in my view, but limited to SE portions (less extensive than two weeks ago)...I am doubtful how far west the instability will get...currently I think its only marginal as to whether come tomorrow night NMM/GFS will show as much instability across the SE quarter as it is now. So...currently looking promising, with the key caveat that GFS appears to have a slightly less consistent set of runs than for the event two weeks ago. Also there appears to me at least to be a trend of easterly migration.

Agree with the others - you see this quite a bit in lightning videos, more pronounced when there is a close lightning flash from behind...it often manifests as a bright horizontal beam running up and down the image, often viewable at normal speed without slowing it down. If I had time currently to find examples on YouTube I would...have a search, there are plenty on there (usually more pronounced on day time footage)

Still looking fairly promising, although will wait until at least tomorrow night before doing a proper chart review/comparison.

Indeed - there have been off and on signals about a potential short lived plume Thursday into Friday. The emergence of this plume however has been a little off and on and it precedes a fairly active LP system and fronts sweeping in from the Atlantic. GFS going for temps close to 30C across SE England and widely into the mid 20s for much of England and Wales...clearly humidity will be on the climb...jet influence sweeps in from the SW through Friday night, though not quite overlapping peak instability to my eyes so severe potential not as pronounced as two weeks ago. Destabilising should be no problem as an active looking front sweeps in late evening/overnight. I would say however...this is not of the same scale as the plume 2 weeks ago...this time we have much more modest instability (region of 1,000 to 1,500) and as I refer to above, I think suspect severe potential will be less pronounced. One to watch...

On Friday night I saw white, pink, blue and orange lightning. Been a long time since I saw red lightning (usually at dusk or dawn) and I think I may have only seen yellow lightning a few times, from IC lightning where part of the bolt is visible and the remainder obscured. I saw greenish lightning once and that's about it.

Tell him from me that I appreciate the awesome pic! Wicked catch

Blimey, could be the first Estofex Lvl 3 of the year. Struggle to see the SE is under any risk, let alone an MDT. I stand (hopefully) to be corrected.FAX chart indicates we could be swiped by a warm front, with GFS and NMM suggesting the slightest tongue of instability creeping into the far SE (MUCAPE only). Both GFS and NMM pointing to a significant precipitation outbreak anywhere east of London and Norwich say. I struggle to see how electrification would be sustained from France, even if both models suggest rapid intensification over the SE. Definitely not getting my hopes up - if anything slightly irritated that what was initially meant yo be a nice day may now be raining. IMO, nothing more than say a 15% lightning area over perhaps Far E Kent and maybe the Sussex coast. Just seen MetO forecasting thundery rain in Sussex and Kent in the morning. Maybe an isolated rumble, nothing more IMO - though will shamelessly keep fingers crossed for more than that

I bet for whoever snapped this bolt in Tring, they needed a change of underwear after. Stunning (from BBC gallery).

Aww don't say that Paul - very much enjoy your contributions which are always insightful and measured. Hope you're right about the thunder year - the next 1-2 weeks seems a bit Atlantic dominated to me. As an El Niño year, which if I recall was attributed to monster MCS' and heat waves in the 90s (first time I heard that term back then), my fingers are crossed