Harry

Thunder and lightning all over the place - wow!!!!!

Thunder and lighting to my north, SE and SW. Don't know where to look!!

Just had the most enormous raindrops here...lightning frequency picking up too...every few seconds now either side of the house

Lightning picking up to my South, aka the Tunbridge Wells cell

Rain just stopped...lightning still to my South

Heavy convective rainfall just started

I am under 2 big anvils all of a sudden - occasional lightning

Just saw lightning off to my SSW....yaaaaaaaaay

Christ almighty man - have you seen a model, chart or TV forecast that anything coming close much before midnight??? When sferics are racing northwards with nothing behind it, by all means feel dispondent. Few hours to go yet for us Also, sky in our region has been littered with AcCas all evening...good signs.

Electric activity really starting to get going now!!

Sferic over NW? That goes against the script

Jersey cell beginning to pick up in electrical activity

Well, there's a clear ark of precipitation developing your way...but premature though unless the warm front is destabilising early.Also of interest, not necessarily for the SE, the Channel storms moving due North. Most models envisaged either NNE or NE motion,

Really not very humid here yet, but then breeze quite storm which is tempering the feel.

Feels cooler again now...odd...humidity up and down like a yo-yo

Can report humidity has now shot up in Bexley, coinciding with the Ac/AcCas flood and brief strong breeze.

Walking home from the station and the skies are absolutely filled AcCas flooding in from the SSW (or so it appears). Good signs still coming chaps an chappettes

My thoughts are as follows: 1. Make sure your phone/camera/camcorder is fully charged - if you have a tripod, set it up now 2. Have a small drink (if of age of course) and chill 3. Keep tabs on this thread of as people post regular updates on developments 4. As the skies darken around sunset, commence perusing the southern and western skies for flashes. Model and chart gazing of little consequence from now on in. Nobody can give you an answer - just sit back, relax and enjoy the night ahead I'm further east of you so if you don't get at least a light show, I sure as he'll won't. Oh and IF you must go to sleep, heavens bells set an alarm for no later than midnight!!!!

NEVER count your chickens - when it comes to a plume anything can happen. This has shown to be the case year after year after year. In the past 24-36 hours along the UKMO model has threatened the whole south and West Country, then precluded the SE from any precip, then over each run in the past 12 hours pushed it slowly east again - some models have held firm on C/E areas for best convection, others held firm that west is best. Must save analysis until after the event

My forecast earlier looking ok so far will wait and see how it pans out

Well that's not so good for me - had kind of hoped anything would form south of me and move overhead...back to possibly being a breeding ground again.More AcCas in the sky again over London including some developing jellyfish...evening jellyfish are usually good precursors to overnight storms (numerous occasions they have been spot on signalmen)

No sferics yet - there are off the south west/ Irish coast however

Lol no worries - just trying to avoid the inevitable "oh so nothing forming in my area then". What forms and doesn't form is a different question entirely

This is misleading - some of those charts clearly show storms firing further south, particularly the NMM and UKMO. As soon as things fire they will very quickly electrify (given high CAPE and high cloud tops). Either way in the next 2-3 hours we will know what's what Humidity definitely building in London.

This is the latest UKMO projects...first snapshot, 2200, second short, 0100.....LOL!!!! That's explosive development