Harry

Towering Cu to my N and NE but unlikely to break the cap I suspect. Exciting watching the explosive developments elsewhere Looking good thus far!!

Absolute beast of a cell heading towards somewhere east of Exeter!!

Very hot here now - 30C. Haha!! Shame the convection isn't here though but 30 odd miles yonder.

She's going to go cap'ain she canny take any more! This is looking West. Convection looking increasingly robust - impressive as was expecting it further north.

Extremely capped environment here in NW Kent/SE London. Beautiful cirrus in the sky earlier too. Very warm but by no means humid. I think anyone holding out hopes in the SE quarter of the UK will be disappointed. I'm going to throw my dart at the map and pick somewhere between Derby, Telford and Liverpool as a focal point today...just a bit of fun going on a hunch.

If it's any consolation August has been poor for several years in my neck of the woods, whereas growing up in the 90s it was the month that seemed to guarantee big storms, particularly the powerful overnight MCSs.

Sad to say I'm going to be missing this one, though residing in a sweat box lol. Cameras and vids at the ready chaps and chapettes - could be some notable weather. Only irritating thing is that if there is some super cellular/tornadic activity it will encourage the Express to publish doom-mongering headlines. Good luck all and remember to keep your wits - while severe stuff in this country isn't common it can nevertheless be dangerous!! Enjoy

I bet there will be a notable tornado now they've published that...

Hmmm...looking like I might miss out on tomorrow's drama, on eastern edge of estofex warning while convective weather UK forecast has no risk zone whatsoever. Will just try and enjoy the heat (and dissertation write book)

Indeed....atmosphere just doesn't strike me as sufficiently conducive for thunder. Still a humid feel out there so certainly some moisture to wring out

I am going to throw my two-penneth in without going into too much detail. My view is the BBC over-egged the lightning symbols as it never really looked like being a widespread thundery outbreak - I posted to this effect a couple of days ago and it seemed to me that the consensus on this forum was much like mine - potential for some thunder, but limited in coverage. Instability, based solely both SBCAPE and MUCAPE, always look meagre at best and largely confined to southern most areas - in such situations it helps to base expectations on this factor first and foremost, then look at whether the atmospheric profiles are conducive for detonation. Yes, high CAPE does not always result in storms, and low forecast CAPE does not preclude storms, but generally the principle is there. I personally have felt that the BBC have been a little bit trigger happy with the lightning symbols on occasions this year, but hey ho they are professional forecasters, I certainly am not. Furthermore, there was fairly widepsread thunder activity across the SE yesterday, which is where it largely always looked most likely to be (much closer to the real instability over the continent). That said, it is irritating to fill this forum up with moans when there is a special thread for that...I am only highlighting it here to help members focus attention on the better sources (i.e NetW forecasters and CAPE charts, rather than BBC/ITV forecasts). This afternoon could well be interesting, but again its a highly complex environment - a lot of cloud, despite recent breaks here in London and across other parts of the SE. Definitely humidity is up, but the cloud cover is again filling in. I would pitch any thunder risk afternoon at <20% for England generally, perhaps 30% across London and the Home Counties - possibly somewhere E or NE of London most favoured (say 35% chance).

To be honest, I haven't really been following the next few days with close interest apart from watching BBC forecasts...on the basis of the Beeb forecasts over the past couple of days you'd be thinking we were in for a light-fest!!

SBCAPE and MUCAPE looks pretty dismal on both GFS and NMM. On this basis I am not going to be getting too excited about this 'event'. The only notable MUCAPE slithers into the far SE during late Friday and early hours of Saturday, but that is only one NMM model and even then MUCAPE is pretty meagre. To my eyes, it looks more of a heavy rain event than a thunder event, but happy to be wrong about that

A forecaster's nightmare this coming up!!! A complete mess...but interesting and borderline exciting nonetheless

I saw the most surreal thing 10 minutes ago - what looked like a funnel cloud hanging out of the base of a cumulus. There was very slight rotation...but to cap it off, it actually roped out. Very strange, just wish I had my phone on me!

Sounds like a candidate for a positive CG... rarer lightning strikes than standard negative CGs, but far more powerful - I've heard suggestions anything up to 10 times more powerful (in terms of current and voltage). Therefore, lightning is often brighter and the thunder much more explosive; those I've heard are usually a succession of loud bangs accompanied by ground shakes and (what sounds like) a motorbike backfiring sound, or, a single bang like that of a cannon being fired nearby. The often occur as thunderstorms are approaching or moving away, as they tend to originate high in the cloud, eg from the anvil. Positive CGs, for this reason, often get referred to as dry lightning or bolts from the blue. That would explain the insanely bright flash you observed, the earth shattering thunder and the shockwave feeling your Dad experienced. As regards your point about the source of the flickers, almost certainly from the same series of storms. My house was being illuminated at times by the storms last night and I am a good 20-25 miles (or more) from the closest cell that occurred last night. One night a few years back, my room was illuminated by storms in the Channel (well over 60 miles away). Don't doubt the distances from which you can see flickering lightning, particularly where its elevated or at the top of a thunderhead. Particularly if you have murk or light clouds around, particularly haze at high altitudes, it will act like a mirror for storms many tens of miles away

Interesting you raise this - a few times last night I was convinced I could hear thunder, but the nearest a cell got to me was the other side of London. I heard deep and faint growls, distinct from the aircraft flying overhead occasionally. Perhaps something to do with wind flows? One for an aerodynamics physicist possibly

Same here...to echo what you've said above, I saw the most phenomenal lightning display after around 12:30 as the skies cleared behind the line of storms. Without hesitation it was the most frequent lightning I've seen from a single cell in the UK - the cloud tops were flashing like mad and then the forks started. The only time I've seen something reminiscent to that was watching supercells in the US (and those videos of the northern cells on 1st July). Forked lightning was burst across the cloud every 2-3 seconds, with more frequent flashes behind and to the sides along the line. Was an awesome lightning display.

Just when you're off then you're not...NW skyline towards London/N London is almost continual flashing...thought I'd seen it all two weeks ago. Must easily be 40-50 strokes per minute from that portion of the line of storms alone. Sadly no camera I have will pick it up. Absolutely nuts!! Defo off to bed now, despite the draw of the insanely frequently flashing.

Right, think that's my lot. Wicked night really while nothing juicy in this locale...some nice cloud illuminations and occasional convective downpours. While the sky overhead still littered with AcCas it seems quite clear that near destabilising line is not budging. Very much look forward to seeing the footage and pics people have Enjoy what's left of the show night all

Some phenomenally bright lightning from that next line of cells!!! Lighting up the house. The torrential convective busts of heavy rain falling from very agitated looking skies simply isn't sparking - oh, another downpour just starting - how this isn't sparking I will never know .

Indeed, not wanting to spark though sadly.

To clarify, affecting a narrow corridor of the SE lol

Lovely shot...one to send to the BBC I reckon

Looks like yet another cell trying to fire just north of Portsmouth...with that trough feature (which I was expecting to be aligned differently to what it evidently is) I suspect risk of flooding and yet more joy for the lucky ones this evening....come on nudge East you little bugger lol