Harry

I'm ruling nothing out, William, I'm no authority on weather. I have however closely watched thundery events for the last 12 years (and enjoyed them for longer than that) and have seen FAR FAR better setups produce nothing - on balance of probabilities I'm just trying to shape expectations, certainly not telling you or anyone else there won't be thunder either today or beyond.

What you need to appreciate is that just because there is a relatively high PWAT flow of air, this is not in my view a true 'plume'. A true plume in the sense we discuss originates from a precise area of Iberia, nice firm dry lid of air over warm and humid air leading to significant instability. This is not what we have here in my view, nor is it even THAT humid - to me it is very warm, but in no way resembles a 'thundery plume'. Looking at the mid levels, on the Kent coast at least, it reminds of a nice Spanish late spring day - I'm not seeing any sign of instability at all (not that I'm located in a hot spot to be fair). For the last few days I have been reluctant about the coverage of storms and have always favoured isolated outbreaks across Midlands/Wales/NW England...based on how yesterday played, the atmosphere is probably less unstable than the models would suggest and therefore I favour the reserved positions being taken. So...sorry William, but on Mapantz' side of the fence and thinking lightning coverage will be lower than we may have thought early/mid week. On the plus side, with increases in frontal/trough features in the coming days, together with a fall in pressure, lightning coverage will increase. But, it will be a full on case of now casting as it is clear both the MetO and Beeb are very unsure as to the timing of fronts and troughs and therefore whether storms will be likely, where, when etc. If the conditions fall nicely, ie a period of surface heating, nice build of instability, with a front/trough engaging at the right time, a decent thunderstorm or two could be possible. BUT, as I allude to, the whats, whys and wherefores are all up in the air. Be glad, our true season hasn't even yet started so anything is a bonus (historically, late May is the period where true plumes with viable imports which both the SE and SW often rely on, become viable)

Apparently it's 26C in Bexley at the moment! so at 11:10 it's already the hottest day of the year so far. Just wonder if the hotter than expected temperatures will be enough to pop the atmosphere.

Lovely picture - those clouds would have my attention to be fair. Will be interesting to see how the fronts/troughs to the south begin to influence proceedings. Need to be guarded against the frontal mess dampening down potential. MetO thinking for tomorrow is that the incoming rain from the south will initially start moderate turning increasingly heavy and thundery through the day.

Indeed, based on the intensity of the returns and the precedent for the day in terms of lightning, I'm surprised it didn't spark more. Having said that, instability towards the SW has consistently looked on the low end and so on that basis I'm not too surprised. BBC increasingly silent on the risk of ANY showers/storms in the UK today.

Was 20C at 09:00 in Bexley this morning, well on its way to being the hottest day of the year so far. Am now on Kent coast for the weekend, sitting on a lounger in the sun (very warm when the cirrus clears) with some prosecco. Beautiful! Relevance to this thread is I have been seeing some low level Cu developing inland, despite remaining confident storm risk here is virtually negligible. Good luck elsewhere - if it stays dry, try to enjoy the first proper heat of 2016 (even if some might have to wait until tomorrow)

Seriously?? That's better going than I had anticipated. If I recall correctly, the first photo was taken with temps of 26-27C and CAPE levels in the region of 1,500-2,000 J/Kg, whilst the second two photos were taken on 3 July when the entire SE quarter erupted under MLCAPE of 2,500-3,000 J/Kg.

This is the sort of thing you want to see....(taken on different days in 2015)

Blimey, Mapantz Those maps - are they your handy-work or are they computer generated?

Limited use of the T word I notice...

Bloody hell, where's William gone!!! Those last 4 posts will please him immensely. I do hope for him it comes off for the SW at some stage this weekend...after what's proven to be a very generous April for me, I don't want to be greedy and would happily pass up much enjoyment just for this weekend and catch some balmy rays

To be fair AJ, it's not too far off what I've been thinking.

I agree with what has been said above, I'm really struggling to call this one. With fronts out west and LP moving through, it is a good platform for unexpected trough features and CZs which could act as decent triggers for more organised storms. I think it was July 2014 when I along with many others were predicting a hot humid but dry night in the SE/E, with storms being reserved for the W portions, only to be woken at 2am by an active series of storms triggered by a trough that wasn't forecast anywhere. While the conditions this weekend are not directly comparable to a July plume, instability is there and I do expect storms in places. Still favouring Midlands N and W'wards, but that doesn't preclude other areas (E/SE/S/SW) either from home growns or imports, particularly Sunday and into next week.

It was either a hack or simply a computer error I'm guessing...funny though

OMG I was about to say that is a pretty good forgery...only to see that it is actually on the MetO website!!!!!

Have you got any pics?? I'd be surprised if they were true AcCas, only on the basis that you don't often see these under marginal instability...and as far as I am aware, there is little or no instability around our shores until tomorrow evening at the earliest.

Agreed This is what I'm basing some of my analysis on as I have limited access to MUCAPE charts.

Not seeing that at the moment, William. Yes there is a potential for storms in a number of areas but current thinking is that thunderstorms are likely to be isolated rather than widespread (so I agree with you there) however the energy and instability is markedly higher further E and N of the SW. Thunderstorms in my view are most likely across the Midlands, Wales and NW England. Rain is more likely in the SW but less likely to be electrified (I'm simply not seeing enough instability here compared to other areas at this stage).

Aye! Attached

Well, same model, but the French version pushes out to 96h. 18z Sat SBCAPE

Quite big variances in the runs of the models even at this relatively late stage in proceedings...compare 06z and 12z GFS for example, particularly into early next week. Looking forward to some good heat for early May and a dynamic forecast throwing thunder risk into the mix. At the moment west is best for thunder over the weekend in my view (Wales in particular looking good), with potential extending south and eastwards into early next week. Certainly Matt Taylor on the ramp up.

To be fair, I didn't say that I was I am more looking forward to the first proper heat of the year with some thunder potential mixed in.

Keeping a cheeky eye on the weekend potential - nice for the warmth/dash of humidity if nothing else though it does seem likely there'll be some reports of thunder by the end of the weekend based on current projections.

I am yes, Cannon Street. Seems like this part of the world has been a breeding ground today - new cells erupted about 15-30 mins ago and rushing eastwards across Essex/Kent.

BLIMEY! In the last few minutes an extremely bright flash of lightning and bomb like crash of thunder, complete with torrential snow/soft hail. Been a great week this week