Harry

Second flash and rumble today from yet another wintry deluge....... However, contrary to Estofex, UKASF and Nick F having this part of the world under a lightning zone, I stupidly opted to follow the MetO's forecast last night which stated generally dry with cloud towards south coast and which made not a single reference to showers! I therefore left my coat and umbrella at home....fuming!

Snow certainly fell earlier (floating down), together with graupel (bouncing polystyrene like balls) and hail. Another clap of thunder as I typed

Just chucked it down with snow in C London, followed by a nice clap of thunder Good start to what promises to be a reasonably interesting day.

Quite simply, that is stunning! Textbook sky to the S/SE of London at the moment. Beaming sunshine, smattering of clouds at different altitudes and the first tentative indications of the development of a Cu field as the day heats up. Thus far looking pretty good, will have to see how the next few hours pan out.

I can see the clouds lighting up from here...its really going for it, a sight I don't expect to see until late May/June at the earliest and even then I'd give it a thumbs up by those standards!

Seems to be more sferics in the Channel...

Thanks Mapantz will try and work something out. Ive attached a couple of screen grabs in the interim - the second pic shows what I assume is a stepped leader

Does anybody know if I can upload a video from my iPhone/iPad - I luckily got to record the deafening gun shot clap a short while ago

Excuse the language but OMFG - CG straight overhead with immediate gun shot thunder - scared the bejesus out of me!!!!!

The bolts while not incredibly numerous are stunning when they occur - repeat strokes and stretching across the whole sky!

First flash observed off to my SSE - think Surrey is right - definitely a NE shunt to this lot visually anyway Stunning CG off to my S

Think I just heard my first elevated rumble - first bout of rain just gone through. Skies still look good to my S/SE

Just moving in here now - no thunder/lightning witnessed yet despite blitzortung going for it still!

The Sussex storm looking awesome on blitzortung at the moment with the cells bit further west still producing! Cell approach Hastings area also kicking out still...somewhat gobsmacked really. I'm due north of the W Sussex cells so need to keep fingers crossed it keeps on rolling. As I type fresh strikes south of Pompey in Channel

Clear increase in mid-level instability here which coinciding with the activity further south excites me a little

Just had a mid level shower here - in fact still raining. Light and altogether rather meh! Couple more strikes near Petersfield and the Newhaven/Lewes cell still producing. A cell heading towards Hastings still firing too.

I'll be honest, it's not as weak so far as I had been expecting!

Couple of new cells in the Channel/N France after the first died off. Jay Wynne's recent forecast shows more intense precip compared with earlier forecasts too. Loving the feature on blitzortung (guessing it's new) which shows (presumably) which stations are picking up which strikes - the more powerful strikes in theory being picked up by more stations whereas weaker strikes much more locally. Should give us an idea of how powerful the cells are in any given storm. Recent strike near Eastbourne/Newhaven - any witnesses? Make that 3-4 strikes now very close to the coast.

Unless I'm mistaken it developed over the channel. Furthermore any thunder there is in the coming hours is likely to be from (albeit limited) mid level instability so the Channel is not a huge issue.

Well technically it hasn't for our shores just yet and remains to be seen whether it's just tapping into higher CAPE projected over France and our meagre offerings will be realised too. Mid level cloud steadily increasing here combined with a notable bounce in humidity in the breeze here (well, it feels so on my delicate skin lol ) Channel cell still producing so eyes and ears pointing south for those in the Portsmouth/Chichester area

Quite surprised by how many strikes there have been in a short space of time. Game on....

Heavy convective precipitation is not modelled for another couple of hours yet. UKMO for example (using the MetO website precip projections) does not have the convective heavy precip breaking out until 18-19z anyway. Also I would guard against too much excitement when there is any initial sparks - I think sporadic would be the theme of the evening rather than boisterous cells

Increasingly mackerel-ised Sky round here at mid to upper levels. Nothing else of note to report.

Interesting day ahead, shame it isn't Mid Summer really. Charts today in the round haven't changed much from yesterday. Consensus generally from the models is Hampshire east is best for lightning prospects. GFS the most stingy SBCAPE/MLCAPE wise whereas (perhaps unsurprisingly) NMM/WRF more bullish. Tomorrow looks a little better too from my perspective but that said far SE still likely to be outside the crosshairs tomorrow, whereas Wales/SW/C England best placed.

All very underwhelming - bit of heavy rain and that's your lot. Roll on May/June when we start to get in to plume range