Harry

Agreed, with lots of cloud around too will make Cbs difficult to spot. Electrical cell over NW, but even that has only sparked 5-6 times.

Gorgeous and warm here though some black bases emerging under some cloud build up.

Going to be one of those days when I get back from shopping later and we'll be on page 50 which tonnes of updates and hopefully lots of pics/videos. Couldnt be more perfect here at the moment for some convection to bubble later.

Shame I'm at the low end of potential today as some good diurnal heating underway here. I suspect storms will be more isolated that Estofex is going for, but then that's half the excitement, trying to second guess models/forecasters

Echo what <<Ryan>> said - some fantastic cloudscapes and gorgeous lightning; deep peels of thunder from positive strikes in the channel and some closer rolls from some anvil crawlers. Couldn't get my camera in time to photo some gorgeous mammatus cloud. Sat on the sea wall at St Mary's Bay for a while a just watched a gorgeous scene. Here's some pics.

Looks like the remaining lot is kicking more easterly so that could be it for these shores. Odd that the first batch tracked more northerly yet these next batches are chucking more easterly.

OMG...it's fair to say we just core punched!!! Deafening noise, roads flooded in seconds and an extremely close bright CG as I type...this has been worth it already and I'm still in the car (just passed Ashford)

Skies are looking AWESOME...trying to get pics to upload later

Sadly, unless Blitzortung is playing up strike rate markedly dropping. Booooo!!! Still if you're still hearing thunder in Eastbourne that's positive!

Just approaching W Maidstone and there's lines of Ac visible, some candidates for AcCas too!

Am whizzing down towards the coast now (as passenger) but may have left it far too late - just approaching M20 at swanley so will take at least an hour . I notice a degree of back building going on so may not be all lost. Just gawping at Blitzortung - much more of a northerly component to the motion so may end up driving through them. Clearly the western edge of the plume is breaking down. Fingers crossed they hold some potency or this will be a wasted journey

Getting ready to move (although I'm not permitted to go alone in case I look skyward too much)...frustrating as I just want to go lol!!!

So tempted to head down to the east Kent coast....grrrrr!!!

Let's hope Weather09 the CF decides to slow itself allowing some albeit brief advection across this part of the world...look extremely unlikely though sadly. Roll on Sunday albeit Midlands/EA/Lincs probably favoured spots, with reasonable risk across many other areas.

Indeed, GFS steering away and in my experience GFS tends to have a fair to decent handle on these setups. NMM 5 this morning, which I also consider a fairly accurate model, also on an eastward shunt. Therefore I'm reducing any expectations to negligible, based on previous experience. What has happened on many occasions previously however is that cold fronts progress more slowly than expected. What we appear to be talking about is down to mere hours; if the CF stalls, it will enable greater instability to advect northwards, however if it passes as currently modelled, I think its a no go. On the plus side, GFS (at least) is continuing to favour some thunderstorm potential as we head through next week and near the bank holiday weekend. While I usually wouldn't entertain something so far out (on any level), I am surprised by the consistency in the model projections even at this range...7-10 days out is not unusual to flitter between 3000 CAPE/-9 LI to 0 CAPE/+14 LI from run to run. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

With each GFS run, the glancing blow of a spanish plume for the far SE is looking more likely Saturday evening/overnight, the western extent of the plume readily de-stabilising across N/NW France and tracking NE. As ever with these setups it is very easy for it all to nudge east enough to miss our shores, or indeed 'clip Kent'. Interesting all the same and very much keeping an eye on it - noting that 00z yesterday kept all potential over the continent, while 00z today has nudged it westwards in line with other runs. Also, Tomasz Schafernaker's forecast last night had a line of deep blues and greens running towards London and the Home Counties, but (due to obvious uncertainty) he did not direct much attention to it at this stage.

Sorry if this has been raised before, however there's a slither of interest for SE parts Saturday night into Sunday, but it is extremely marginal. GFS 18z is modelling a build up of high CAPE/instability across N France, setting of thunderstorms which will track NE and could move across SE/London area Saturday night. 00z however has this missing entirely and travelling across Benelux. Worth keeping a cheeky eye on, but keeping in mind there's around 100 mile variation between the two models at present which could increase in the coming days.

Definitely a shout for some thundery activity across SW/Midlands/CS England tomorrow. While completely fantasy land territory, GFS suggesting first proper plume opportunities through the last week of May.

Nice! Some heavier looking precip developing too towards E Kent near Canterbury/Ramsgate - some tentative signs therefore that this rain may reintrnsify as it moves over land

Bit concerning its all sweeping increasingly west. All very frustrating

Small detail but we also want it to keep electrical potency...I had heavy rain last night lol

You have a better vantage point than me, however from this vantage point it doesn't appear so.

Take this with caution as the sky is quite hazy but it looks like a CB is developing immediately south of me. Narrow cloud but stretching high up.

Surrey, the sun has recently come out here and the sky is immediately awash with Cu, some of which was towering vertically like chimney stacks. Whether it's late enough to provide enough oomph to build meaningful Cu clouds remains to be seen.

Just notice the sky rapidly going dark to my East. Looking on radar some very small but intense downpours are developing.