Harry

Very true, however I'm basing my expectations on a median point of all the various models (which on closer inspection diverge quite significantly). Some initiate storms very early and then repeatedly through the night, others develop very isolated cells in the night followed by an MCS around 06z-07z onwards, while others are keen to keep the bulk of the storm activity (take MetO rainfall projections as an example) south of line say from Brighton to Rochester. Exciting period coming up, but as should be expected the models are struggling with the detail (albeit the broader consensus is about there)

The difficulty will be, I suspect, that initial storms are more or less modelled to erupt around or just off the coast of Kent/E Sussex. Thereafter it looks as if storms will develop further west of that general zone, meaning that there is a risk you could stay put waiting for that eventuality (and they stay further east) or you could move east, never quite catch them and then they develop over your patch. Personally I am staying put and hoping for the best, but then I am on the edge (wrong side) of Dan's 'moderate' and the MetO's amber so am hopeful of catching at least some peripheral storms, but not expecting to enjoy the main feast.

I'd agree with that, seems to be the general trend being spat out of the models - relatively marginal so I wouldn't expect any change to the current warning areas issued, but if you are in a 'slight' or 'low' area then perhaps the odds have slightly improved. One thing is for sure I might be a bit scared of falling asleep tonight in case I miss anything. Strikes me (pun, sorry) that any storms could develop extremely rapidly, with some cells being imported while others will erupt overhead in a very short space of time.

Here's a comparison of the 2KM and 5KM NMM outputs....

Exceptionally dubious about this unless it is based on the same model as NetWx (interestingly having just glimpsed the NMM 2KM model this warning seems to marry with that). I simply struggle to comprehend why most of the E Kent coast is considered low when virtually all models suggest it will more than likely be the focal point of thunderstorms and indeed their associated risks. Hasten to add I'd love it to be right.

Agree with this wholeheartedly W09 - it's about playing the odds. In the very unlikely event nothing occurs tonight, then that is a point of intrigue to try and work out why the models got it wrong. A number of models now are falling in line with the MetO amber warning and so expectations should coincide with this. To simply say nah it wont happen is nonsense!!!

Of course MCS have been more frequent over Benelux in the past few years...that is not to say when conditions have been favourable here that Benelux have stolen them.

This statement is perhaps misleading. Unlike ConvectiveWeatherUK's forecast zones which forecast first and foremost probability, Nick F's forecast zones focus on severity. The 'slight' does not suggest slight chance of thunderstorms (far from it) rather that thunderstorms in this area are predicted but with a 'slight' chance they will be severe. To save me having to create my own chart, I happen to fall closer in line with Dan's projections on convectiveweather.co.uk, slightly more east favouring than Nick F's (which I do not like saying as it leaves my chances lower than under Nick's forecasted scenario). I would clarify both Dan and Nick are substantially more knowledgeable and qualified than me, but taking all of the trusted models together and drawing a median, Dan's is the best fit in my opinion. As a Man of Kent born and bread, I am rather qualified in evaluating the outcomes of plume forecasts vs actual events, and generally speaking in setups like this thunderstorms occur more often than not. Models have routinely been projecting the advection of highly unstable air across the SE and continue to do so. On this basis, I think thunderstorms are likely, but what is open to question is where the triggering trough will actually sit and thereafter where thunderstorms, which will trigger throughout the night, will train.

Thinking I could be on the periphery tonight - difficult to call to be honest. UKMO rainfall projections keeping it very much across E Sussex/Kent, whereas yesterday much of the SE quadrant was projected to get pummelled. WRF-NMM keen to smother much of the SE quarter, even if only temporarily, in reasonably high CAPE, with convective outbreaks maybe reaching London and parts of EA.

Storm Forecast Valid: Wed 22 Jun 2016 06:00 to Thu 23 Jun 2016 06:00 UTC Issued: Tue 21 Jun 2016 21:55 Forecaster: PUCIK A level 2 was issued for NW France mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for excessive precipitation and tornadoes. A level 1 was issued for extreme N France, SE England, Belgium and Netherlands mainly for severe wind gusts, excessive precipitation and to the lesser extent for large hail. A level 1 was issued for S Italy mainly for marginally large hail. A level 1 was issued for W Balkans through Romania into Ukraine mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation. SYNOPSIS With several days of extremely severe thunderstorm activity over parts of E Europe, situation will finally begin to ease off over this region. Primary reason will be the weakening of mid-tropospheric flow as trough over Central Europe fills up, coincident with a decrease in the DLS. Northern part of the trough will continue moving eastwards, along with the cold front, across W Russia. A cut-off low will remain almost stationary just to the SW of Sicily. A change in the pattern is forecast over W Europe with an amplifying trough over the Atlantic. SW-ly flow will advect a plume of steep lapse rates over moist airmass over W and Central France. Several areas, both in W and E Europe require closer inspection with enhanced probability of severe weather. DISCUSSION ... NW France ... All models agree on the increase in the low-level moisture over the area while already at Tuesday 21 UTC, surface observations reveal dewpoints up to 18 deg C. In conjuction with the steepening lapse rates from the south, moderate CAPE values are forecast over the area (1000 - 2000 J/kg). Strengthening mid and upper tropospheric flow will yield high values of DLS (20 - 30 m/s), so that very well organised convection can be anticipated. Supercell convection will be also supported by an increase in SRH as surface flow backs to easterly with low pressure south of the area. Forecast soundings display favourable veering of winds with height and by 18 UTC, 200 - 400 m2/s2 of SRH is forecast in the 0-3 km layer especially in the NW part of the Lvl 2. Parallel mid to upper tropospheric flow to the boundary suggest that storms may have tendency to cluster, but any storm that manages to stay out of the boundary could remain in the form of isolated supercell, capable of large to very large hail. A brief window will exist in the evening also for tornadoes as boundary layer stabilizes but low level shear ramps up. It is likely that storms progress along the boundary in the form of a cluster or small MCS in the night hours towards NE, being capable of severe wind gusts and/or excessive precipitation. Detrimental factor, especially across the northern parts of the Lvl 2 may be lingering cloudiness. ... Belgium, Netherlands, SE England ... Lower CAPE values forecast for this area decrease the overal risk of severe weather. Nevertheless, if some storms manage to initiate during the day, they may become supercells with a threat of marginally large hail due to the strong vertical wind shear. Region may be also impacted during the night hours by the convective clusters (or MCS) moving in from France. Such system would pose predominantly a risk of severe wind gust or an excessive rain event.

Agree with AJ in that MCS generally reserve lightning activity to their eastern flank and I am going to suspect that will be the case tomorrow night. However, much like last July (3rd) I suspect there'll be pre-MCS cells firing which, if they do, could be very electrically active. Personally I think we have more chance at pre-MCS thunderstorms erupting on the edge of the plume than an MCS which I anticipate will run more along the coastline, perhaps giving Dungeness a show. Just a hunch...

All I can say is I soooooooooooooo wish I was able to go down the Kent coast tomorrow night...to cap it off, am in solid meetings all day on Thursday so will miss any home growns.

Where has this Kent Clipper doom and gloom come from? Have seen nothing that consigns it the KC bin (new term - Kent Clipper bin) Defo some eastward shift on the WRF-NMM 06z but close enough to revise back westwards.

If it fills you with some degree of confidence, the above chart will almost certainly not be reliant on surface heating (certainly not here anyway). Where it occurs however is still very uncertain with some models suggesting it could miss all bar the extreme SE of the UK, others suggesting more of the SE quarter could be in with a chance.

PM - that GFS in isolation is for next week, doh!

Following on from my posting of the 12z WRF-NMM last night, this is the 00z from midnight. Bit of an eastward shunt but still all to play for - I think most would agree any westward adjustment would be welcome.

Last one from me tonight... Day 3 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 22 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 23 Jun 2016 ISSUED 20:36 UTC Mon 20 Jun 2016 ISSUED BY: Dan This is an extended outlook issued to highlight the potential for convective weather - given the early lead time, it is inevitable that changes will be required to the forecast as the forecast evolution becomes clearer with time. A sharpening upper trough to the west of Ireland will continue to dig southwards towards Portgual, backing the flow over western Europe and allowing advection of a notably warm, moist airmass northwards into parts of the British Isles. At this stage there is some uncertainty as to how much of (primarily) England will be affected by this rich low-level airmass - at least parts of SE England and East Anglia seems likely, but this may extend farther W across Cen S England / Midlands perhaps. Certainly trends in 12z models are beginning to shift a little more westwards, but there is still plenty of time for this to change. In either case, during this forecast period there are 2 main aspects to consider: (1) Should cloud begin to break in the wake of morning showery rain (associated with a frontal wave), then given modest surface heating of an airmass with Tds of 15-16C, there may be scope for isolated thunderstorm development over East Midlands / East Anglia / SE England during the afternoon and early evening, especially if any sea breeze component can aid lift. This is currently treated a low probability and generally ignored for now in the attached graphic. (2) Forced ascent during the evening and night hours from the approach of a shortwave trough over N France / English Channel will likely lead to thunderstorm development that eventually grows into an organised cluster / MCS given strong DLS, being steered generally to the NE through the night across at least the highlighted SLGT area. Given modest instability, lightning could be quite frequent - especially on the eastern flank of any thunderstorm complex that does develop. Heavy rain and hail up to 1.5cm in diameter will be the primary hazards. There is scope for parts of these regions to be upgraded to MDT with an expansion of the SLGT westwards if recent trends continue - but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty at the moment.

OMFG...another Estofex Lvl 3, 5 in as many days. Unprecedented I think I'm right in saying

Indeed...think it's going to wobble continually back and forth over the next runs. The WRF-NMM however I found pretty sharp last year in these events so am keen to see how the 18z looks compared with GFS (might check in the morning)

Coming into 48 hour range now... ...if only! Have seen some massive swings in the models at this range so all usual caveats, terms, conditions and consumer warnings apply As Weather09 points towards above, there is the potential for any storms which may develop to be severe, given a fairly active jet being in play (which more often than not lacks in these sorts of setups for the UK)...stark contrast to some of the similar plume events of yester-year.

Too right - Thors-day and all that

Well that's promising, considering it was the 12z yesterday that looked depressing!!

They were quite common in the 90s - almost annually if I recall correctly. Could be very close call Wednesday evening.

GFS starting to get a real eastward wriggle on at the moment - rather disappointed but still scope for some change between now and mid week

Indeed, but I'd take a heatwave any day, especially after the slow start to summer it has been so far!