Harry

Love it love it love it!!!!

Just looking at blitzortung and there was around 5 simultaneous strikes from the Southampton cell Dungeness cell a pleasant surprise...if any more strikes might have to gaze from the window

Easiest way to determine a wall cloud is that it looks like the base of a pyramid/triangle protruding from the base of a Cb. Rotation is a further sign but this is not always visible from distance. Shelf clouds will often be flatter, wider (than a wall cloud) and bolted to the side of the Cb (rather than under it). Vs

I know this is the antithesis of convection, but how frustrating is it to be on the end of convective potential and bag skies like this......always the way

I find it interesting that Estofex have issued an MD in one of only a few areas of NW Europe not under at least a Lvl 1/50% lightning risk hatching. The only reason I find this interesting is that not too far from our shores models are clearly struggling with the synoptics, which may also explain the sudden emergence of potential downpours across SE-UK early tomorrow (unless they're not recent developments and they hid there all along)

I have a bit of a headache and feel like I've had a mini-stroke....if that's not a precursor I don't know what is

Where do people get the ECM precipation models? NW, Meteociel, Wetterzentrale - can't find precip charts

Not sure whether it is an error in the model, but UKMO precipiation projections generate some intense downpours across the SE/Home Counties/Midlands between 04z and 07z tomorrow. It doesn't appear to be supported however by any other model. Interesting.

Clearing skies in London - shame its not a hotspot today really.

Yes, they were fantastic weren't they!

And a rare Moderate from Nick F too!

Was this the infamous 'el brumo' by any chance?? Yes was very much a drought for the SE that day - steaming hot! Was absolutely stunning a day that day, over 3000 CAPE with LIs of -9/-10, just no trigger (until you reached Cardiff and Midlands northwards)

80 strikes in 20 mins??? Pah! That's nothing old bean - remember this event from last year? This was kicking out about 80 strikes per minute

Just seen that UKMO is going for risk of an isolated thundery shower across Kent and Sussex tonight

Defo Ac that I can make out, though really can't tell if there's some turrets or not. I would be surprised only given that mid level instability is not due to increase (albeit only marginally) until much later.

In answer to the initial question why it isn't ramping up in here - I think it's because there is still a lot of doubt about the coverage of storms. On the latest models, it seems there is low risk of some elevated storms approaching the SW-UK in the early hours of tomorrow. MUCAPE is quite meagre so any lightning activity I expect to sporadic at best. Tomorrow there is a risk of storms thanks to a trough which is modelled to move NE through the day, initially across Devon/Cornwall, moving NE across S Wales/Somerset/Wiltshire/Hampshire. The trough doesn't overlap decent instability until the afternoon however so better chance for S-Wales/Somerset/Wilts/Bristol sort of area. Tomorrow night there is a small risk of elevated storms across the far SE as a zone of instability drifts across from the near continent. NMM models convective precipitation with this, however equally it could be quite frontal in nature (FAX chart shows warm fronts drifting NE around that period) which may serve to suppress lightning risk. Again, nothing particularly notable being modelled. Saturday is perhaps the best chance with fair to decent instability across SE-UK, Midlands, S-UK and parts of the SW. I suspect given no obvious triggers or steering winds to organise them, any storms could be pulse like in nature and potentially rather isolated. So - yes there appears to be potential but not ideal chase days and less likely there will be anything approaching severe or particularly memorable. This may account for the lack of a buzz...only my opinion of course in the time I've got before getting on with proper work, lol

Good God man why so? Surface based thunderstorms are much better if you want to full force of storms. Elevated storms can end up being little more than light shows. I had some awesome elevated storms last year with very frequent lightning, but the rain tended to be less dramatic and the thunder even less so.

Indeed - if you look at the FAX chart for Friday night you will see a trough located in that general location.

All about looking at the evidence my dear fellow....none those cells are over land on that graphic...if like has happened a lot this year (and last) the storms could rage on all cylinders over the channel and either miss land entirely or pfffft out over land agree though, pretty colours

Over the past few years, the majority of storms I have witnessed have been at night (including those in early April and this weekend just past)

I would strongly suggest caution as it is a largely subtle change in the models. What has led me to believe that chances have improved is largely driven by the FAX chart indicating troughs which should be sufficient triggers to release the instability (CAPE) modelled. In the absence of the troughs (which lets face it, move/disappear/appear each model update) then I think potential falls away again. The detail of whether storms will occur is still unknown - when, where, how (etc.) even less known

My thinking is that chances for storms across S-UK in particular have improved slightly on latest projections. It appears that more heat and moisture encroaches across the south, combined with a series of troughs affecting different regions, initially SW-UK following S-UK and Wales on Saturday.

Indeed, looking rather benign this weekend. Still, only 24 May....looking quite benign into early June, but then for me that's just the start of our storm season proper. If we havent had a decent plume by late June/early July, I start to get a little frustrated. If nothing by late July, I'm in despair mode (lol)

If I remember rightly yes there was some jet elements combined with troughs and fronts to release instability in the edge of the plume.

I'm of the thinking currently the BBC are really overhyping thunder risk this coming weekend (although chances for synoptic changes may make them correct). Based on the GFS I looked at earlier, warm and moist air advects north across France towards S-UK as LP drifts SE across Iberia and the Med. This for all intents and purposes leads to a Spanish Plume across France generating a few thousand CAPE with LIs in the region of -7. Some of this encroaches across S-UK, particularly so earlier in the weekend. What concerns me however is the jet tracking away from the UK and leaving dynamics above us pretty uninspiring - if you cast back a few weeks ago we had a similar scenario with some warmth and moisture but a static atmosphere caused many frustration as the atmosphere just did not pop. The Beeb earlier showed potential on Friday for some imported thunderstorms particularly across the SE however the exact track of this remains very uncertain. Thereafter there is some instability shown across the south but in a jet free environment so relying on hit and miss pulse type storms. As ever hope I am very wrong, but at the moment I'm not overly excited and think the Beeb are over-egging it.......