Harry

As of an hour ago BBC firmly keeping to the few splashes of rain/showers theme for my neck of the woods. MetO similar. NMM5, NMM10 and GFS as of 12z by contrast opting for something much more significant.

Come now loopy don't tease - two what popping up where?

Indeed...Nick F this morning pointed towards possible MCS depiction so I went along with the that. Also, the Synoptics appear slightly more conducive for a more organised MCS formation than two weeks ago...we have a flabby low identified on GFS for example, which could serve to organise cells into a mesoscale system...but most models appear to show a cluster of discreet cells (like we saw two weeks ago) rather than the organised symbiotic organism that is an MCS

MetO invent again making a complete retreat and pushing storm threat back further south and east. By its reckoning cells firing from around 21z in a line from IoW to London then spreading NE. No MCS or clustered features as ECM and NMM point towards however.

Yup, pretty much as expected from Torro. Likely to be storms, SE quarter, not everyone will get one. What we all knew really lol

Potentially, juice according to most models is gone by around 03z, so it follows that if detonation is later, theoretically it'd be further north and east. Earlier detonation, further south and west

Agreed, skies don't look amazing, but only marginally short of "hell yeah"... Agitated mid levels continuing though as I pointed out, some stratified mess too left over from earlier. Re the 'feel' of the evening, I might remind folk that two weeks, right around this time and for the following couple of hours after, as the plume began to engage this prompted breezier and fresher feeling conditions. By 10:30 the breeze ebbed and humidity trickled up. In any event, our juice sits at mid levels (any storms will be elevated) so as long as the mid levels continue to look irritated, as they do, it remains game on. If it gets to midnight and all still quiet, I might be able to entertain some murmurs of bust. FAR too early now, enequivocally and categorically!!!

Right skies are looking increasingly primed around here. Still some residual murk left over from this morning making visibility a little difficult however through it I can see some towering Ac. Looking good peeps!!

About to get off the train when I can have a good survey of they sky. Not seen anything castle like yet but lots of big standard Ac floating about. Humidity has been slowly climbing too though up to now it's hardly been noticeable after the tropic like few days we've had here. Edit - can make out some agitated Ac with bright white tops (suggesting some verticality). Not the traditional AcCas though

Stunning undulatus there!!

Other than the fact it indicates a pretty unstable atmosphere, the Channel/E Kent stuff is not tickling my fancy. All activity is heading due North East and appears very pulse like in nature.

This is something that is emphasised with any plume event - it is so incredibly unpredictable!!

Nope!! Not seen that on any model....very much out of the blue, and clear as day on radar and lightning detectors.

If we hadn't been blessed with the events of two weeks ago, this place would be in meltdown at the moment. In an average year, these events (including the potential showing for tonight) don't come along too often at all!! There is the potential for some lively thunderstorms and while not everywhere will see them, good chance for many in the SE quarter to at least witness some illuminating CBs which always makes for a nice picture.

Here's my take on tonight...sorry if a bit blurry

Stansted seems fairly well placed for storms in my view

Don't wind people up lol

Glad it's not just me who thought that...appears to be a much slower development than 2 weeks ago, presenting significant flash flood risk I suggest. Are those charts above the NMM2 charts? Just goes to show how volatile that model is, up until now showing extremely little further south. That chart seems to resemble the MCS yielding ECM chart Nick F posted earlier

Proper initiation, bar one or two isolated cells moving out of the Channel Islands, to my recollection was later than that - around 10:30ish. Not expected to be as late tonight, although that depends on which model you view.

Cloud cover is irrelevant for eastern areas, unless you are specifically praying for severe and/or surface based convective weather. It is more critical further west however where MUCAPE is marginal at best, but GFS (for example) has been pointing towards some modest SBCAPE to develop later this afternoon. So, if you're in the west I'd be more worried about cloud cover/heating than if you're further east, where it is irrelevant

Charge it anyway - what's the harm?? I charged mine last night just in case.

Might be wrong, but didn't it two weeks ago also?

You have however quoted my post, which leaves me suspecting that you might criticising me for preferred outcomes.... I'm basing my model preference on the performance of both models in the run up to the event two weeks ago, which were extremely similar synoptic setups to this evening. GFS/NMM5 pretty much nailed it, while Euro4 and UKMO (for much of the time in respect of the latter) were hopelessly wrong. Therefore, I am tending to favour these two models. However, there are marginal differences between the two currently - the GFS preferring a large swathe of C/S and particularly SE England, while NMM5 tending to prefer areas slightly further west than GFS and keeping convective precip more discreet.

Some sources have you fairly well placed...still a bit undecided whether storms will fire C/W of London or C/E of London, as the most reliable models are stuck between these options. I am doubtful as to the merits of the Euro4 or MetO models so am not giving them much attention.

Indeed, going to be a tough one to call I think in some ways, more so re severe potential. Last week NMM5 and GFS won the storm forecast championships way ahead of MetO and Euro4, the former of which (via the invent model) fell in line around 9 hours before the event - Euro4 barely budged at all even at close range. Feel somewhat bemused by Estofex lvl 2 - for years I wondered whether we'd ever realistically see a proper level 2 over the UK for storms - I think this is the 4th so far this year!? Not convinced personally by a lvl 2, though will take it