Harry

This is the latest UKMO projects...first snapshot, 2200, second short, 0100.....LOL!!!! That's explosive development

Nah that's anaprop, unless you have a visual that proves otherwise.

Many hours to go yet...I'm yet to see a model which develops any storms prior to 7pm and beyond...most models nearer 9-10pm at the earliest.

Thanks Paul, awesome Chart...more in line with NMM 5KM Just popped out of the office for a cig, and noticed a sudden spike in humidity. Then I looked up.... Oh yeah....heading in the right direction ladies and gents

Did start to feel more humid to me earlier (not significantly mind). But, note that the humidity is not due to arrive until later on - so in short, in won't feel that humid yet.

Not likely...the storms over N England on Wednesday were about as severe as we get...that only squeezed a yellow! Perhaps lacking (from the reports) were damaging winds and pronounced tornado threat (less threat than El Brumo). If the MetO issue an amber warning (if) my guess is it would be from flooding risk...I believe Estofex used the term "extreme precipitation"...I don't think I have seen them use that expression before, but stand to be corrected.

Lol...no it doesn't I'm afraid - the violet line around N EA/The Wash/Lincs doesn't even translate as 100%, but does translate as "wtf where are my storms" lol

Based on latest model guidance I'm going to disagree slightly - this is my take on it. I am basing on the expectation now (as was a few days ago) that the cap will break. My guidance is largely where the highest instability and moisture overlaps, etc. Bearing in mind, my colours (unlike Nick F's or Estofex forecasts) are based on likelihood, not severity. It's a bit of fun mind - I am not a forecaster of any training or qualifications

Good post - love this video!! Reminds me of the 28th July 2011 storms we had - ear splitting thunder and dangerously close CGs

Also of interest to note, there is a fairly significant difference between the UKMO and NMM (as the two charts I've most recently looked at) in relation to timing. UKMO has the storms rattling north by 1am, where as NMM suggests thunderstorms could still be knocking around southern areas at 2am.

Upgrade on UKMO too!!! This is for 2200 This now very much in agreement with NMM...bear in mind, both the NMM and UKMO (especially) has been the enemy of the SE. All we need now is Euro4 to fall in line....actually, all we need now is for the storms to actually happen, but you get my drift Look at my post above ET

Difficult to tell...the NMM charts (above) for example, show them to be home grown (better in my own experience). However, if storms erupt over France then we could see a combination of home growns and imports. Given the atmospheric conditions present whether home grown or imported storms will be spectacular. Lol, good luck with that!

Wow, MASSIVE upgrade on the latest NMM!!! Cop a load of that! 2KM though (which to me seems a complete outlier) says something completely different from the same time frame...advancement of the trough completely different too (look how much farther north it is than the other model)

These are interesting charts...suggests to me the plume hanging around a bit longer and making greater in roads than forecast earlier.

I did wonder...supercell chance is awesome across the SE question...but only where you get a storm to turn supercellular...our problem is is getting the storm in the first place.

Cirrus has now cleared from here, but that notable humid related haze appearing on the eastern horizon.

What is the SRH chart?

I'm also still puzzling over the Estofex forecast too...it's highlight greatest thunderstorm potential where most models are not...although the point was made earlier, if GFS is their primary source, this would explain it.

Right...I can't work this out Below are two charts from (I presume) the same 00z WRF-NMM 2KM model The first is the UK map - pony for the SE/Home Counties I'm sure you would agree When one looks at the same charts for France, for the same time (0300)...completely different Make of that what you will...I'm sure there's an explanation...yet to think of one though! Latter option please

MetO have upgraded the warnings; Isolated heavy, and possibly severe, thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday evening across parts of southern and southwest England. These are likely to become more frequent later and spread northwards across Wales, the Midlands and northern England overnight, and into southern Scotland by the early hours of Saturday. Some torrential downpours are possible leading to localised surface water flooding, with hail, frequent lightning and squally winds also likely hazards. The public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption. This is an update to the warning to extend the yellow area across southern Scotland and elevate the position in the risk matrix. This will be kept under review and further updates are possible closer to, and during, the event. On Friday evening another hot and increasingly humid airmass is expected to spread northwards from the continent. This airmass looks conducive to the development of isolated thunderstorms during the evening across southern and southwest England which are likely to become more frequent overnight as they spread northwards towards Scotland. With large amounts of energy again available in this atmosphere storms could be severe, with torrential downpours, hail and squally gusts of wind. 30 mm of rain is possible in less than an hour, with as much as 50 mm possible in 3 hours very locally. Large uncertainty remains regarding areas most at risk from storms, and many areas will miss these altogether, staying largely dry. However, where they do develop, disruption is possible. The most likely area for disruption is considered to be Wales, parts of the Midlands and northern (especially northwest) England, but a lesser risk extends around the periphery of this region. Matrix has been updated too. No specific mention of the SE (primarily S and SW then moving N or NE). Same areas on the map under yellow warning, though have extended it further north.

That's a downgrade then...charts I observed yesterday showed fairly considerable CIN here, hence the doubt set out in the Estofex analysis.

Operative statement I think in the latter part of your first sentence...assuming the cap fails to break across the SE. There is a lot of doubt currently as to whether the cap will break in N France...despite obscene instability. A number of charts show almost nothing across N France and the SE, while GFS seems to want most of the action over N France and the SE....time will tell - fair to say the majority of models want to keep N France and the SE dry.

To be fair, JH - I think Surrey may have commenting tongue in cheek...he hasn't struck me as much of a Met basher. But everything you say is absolutely true...its the butterfly effect in a nutshell really - if a maggot farts in Kent this morning, could be the cause of the drop of an EF2 tornado on Dudley this evening I think generally people do not fully appreciate or think about the complexities of the weather and why it will always be almost possible to predict. For example... Area of the UK is approximately 93,800 sq, metres - approx 50,000 ft of atmosphere above...that equates to a volume of air of (rounded) 1.4 BILLION cubic metres. So, just to measure and chart the air, in place, at one point in time, we would need enough instruments to accurately measure 1.4 billion cubic metres of air. Factoring in the fact that air moves, temperature and humidity changes depending on whether the sun is out or not over any given inch of land/sea, which in turn affects temperature, which in turn affects pressure...one starts to (hopefully) manage to contemplate the complexity some what. All of that is meaningless without human interpretation (i.e telling computers what they should make of all that billions and billions of square feet of data) which is, as we know, flawed as we don't understand the weather fully. Hopefully that helps expand your point JH

Permission to scream....YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYY!!!!! Lol..... Not counting my chickens OBVIOUSLY....getting the feeling, both from the latest precip forecast being churned out by UKMO, but also NMM, that my patch may be a breeding ground for some awesomeness north and northeast of London.

I will say this - in my experience home growns are more exciting than imports (although I hasten to add I have witnessed awe inspiring imports). But you can't beat watching an exploding Cb - makes for stunning photography and videos, as we saw this week