Harry

Awesome skyline to my East, just a row of stunning Cbs. Had started to drive down but something told me to stay at home...either I'd crash on the way down there or drive for 2 hours and miss it all anyway...or, something may still fire here. Sky awash again with Ac (some AcCas) and latest temp reading I have of 26C.

Really is painful to watch - towering convection well off to my east, very warm and humid (clear skies) overhead, flat stratiform mess to my west.

I'm not convinced there will be any forcing mechanism. I think the MetO have been overly excited in issuing the warning update they have. No model (I've seen) suggests storms/downpours will continue much through the afternoon, with the exception of perhaps EA. Already a new cell appears to be gathering around Ely, but little electrification at the moment. That said, the link to the Tony Gilbert analysis (posted by someone yesterday) over on another forum, suggested that potential could exist up until around 17z across the SE...I was dubious then and remain so currently (despite the deeply humid feel and slight signs of instability aloft).

To be fair, the channel made no difference. It was simply that the gunpowder airmass only brushed us. Had it been slightly further west I suspect there'd have been many more storms. If you need an example of why I say that, look at the colder North Sea off of the Kent coast...storms exploding here at the moment.

Breeze picking up here too and there are some signs of mid level instability. The real explosive stuff has cleared away from our shores now (east Kent/Essex coast going nuts at the moment). Blitzortung also detecting some lightning (not sure where from) across different areas of the SE. Still notably humid too.

The line west of Brighton looks as if it is organising on radar...my just be wishful thinking. Interesting that the MetO still think there is potential in across our region through until evening hours...maybe the line (above) is a last ditch trough feature?? Who knows...

Gutted...sky an absolute textbook swathe of AcCas and feeling humid still too, however clear skies behind it. Think there is still scope for thunderstorms but further north and east of me I'm afraid to say

From what I can make out with the naked eye, a fresh line forming across W Kent/E London drifting NE...

Its lightly spitting out of mid-level mess. Still very humid, but if I was a guessing man would plump on it being over for my area today, despite it being very humid still and the sun fighting through the Ac. That's the joys (or woes) of plumes...you never can tell...the storms which have fired however, very impressive specimens and am deeply envious of those who enjoyed them Edit - I think the line of precip just overhead here and swiftly moving east could develop into storms in the very near future...I'd keep an eye on that those who are further east!! Re-edit - yup! Looking at it from underneath and towers starting to form...round two for similar sort of areas as earlier I suspect.

Gorgeous pics there skiesabove!! Here's the extent of my experience this morning - the first two being the Rochester/Maidstone cell. The second too are from the past 10 minutes, first looking west, second looking east. Skies starting to look a bit agitated again and humid feel increasing.

Have decided to work for home...have to use another laptop but hey. Not sure I could cope if stuff did develop here later this morning and I was constrained in the office.

I'm going to work...will probably regret it!!

Still not too late to go to work - what a quandary!!!

If I have any chance of seeing anything I have to race east I fear

I've only just woken up and all firing to my East...slept through earlier alarm...devastated! Don't know whether to jump in car and head east...grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!

I've got that feeling too...hope I'm wrong! Off to bed now, alarm set for 4 so I can have a gander at proceedings

I bought a camcorder this week, so fingers crossed I will

GFS 18z not getting past 06z for me on NW. Currently resembles previous runs, but with more impressive CAPE.

I can confirm first AcCas band, although thinning out overhead so must be on the edge of the plume

Ha! I'm in the convective weather UK severe zone by about a mile Mid level cloud increasing further here...difficult to classify in the twilight but a couple of bumps seem to be there

Who is EW?

Just witnessed the first strike over NW France...first of many we can hope

It is extremely unpredictable. Humid air still awaited here although clouds beginning to appear aloft (nothing of interest). Going to be in a quandary around noon tomorrow - stay put and hope for a severe cell or head an hour east to see out the plume. I suppose lets just hope for storms first!!

Don't worry, no sign of a humidity boost here yet either. I was always anticipating notable humidity jump after midnight

Hi Wolfgang Drill, nobody unfortunately can say with any real certainty. I would suggest you are probably in a lower risk area than further east, however there is nevertheless a risk. Helen Willetts just suggested that storms could rumble on through tomorrow evening, clearing by midnight...??? Confused...I was anticipating action to have cleared by around 15z...what are your thoughts about any cold front action? I'm sceptical!