Harry

Stunning isn't it...gorgeous here too!

I'm glad you do...charts just seem fairly keen to dodge us - North Sea 50 miles from Lowestoft looks awesome, lol

I have not detected a jump in humidity yet. I think people are getting a little bit excitable. We shouldn't be anticipating the arrival/development of anything of particular interest until well after dark so there is little point in looking for stuff yet. The gunpowder is on its way - you'll know it when it arrives - you'll start to sweat and there'll be even more insects than there are irritating me right now lol

No forecasts from ConvectiveWeather.co.uk (formerly UKASF) as yet...so that's Nick F away in the US, Estofex down and no UKASF...this will be the first significant plume event without any of those in place for quite some time.

All very interesting - I must say I'm still undecided about whether to be optimistic or pessimistic about tomorrow in truth. I've taken the day off now so I am free to roam as it were. I had planned to wait for storms around my location (06z to 12z) before darting east to the east Kent coast to await anything which fires around that location or moves in from the south/west. Regrettably however the models are keen not to develop anything over Kent, but rather take overnights area to the West of London and fire stuff north of London around noon and thereafter. That said, as BF rightly says, models tend not to be overly accurate and in my experience, Kent in particular often lacks in terms of charts in the CAPE department (possibly as a result of being entirely surrounded by water). This in turn often leads models to be reluctant to show any real storm risk or precip breaking out here. Experience shows however Kent certainly can fire storms and often boasts SBCAPE models are reluctant to show. I think for the time being I will keep to my plan, and hope we have more of a 28/06/11 day than what is currently modelled. Is it me or are those MLCAPE projections far higher than a normal plume event?

MetO rainfall forecast not inspiring to me - this also resembles what somebody described this morning (i.e some linear showers with main storms firing east of England oversea (ironically)). Doesn't quite resemble the fairly explosive atmosphere we are expecting...interesting

The feathery wispy clouds are indeed cirrus.

Very nice...not witnessed anything like that for best part of 9 months...I love this time of year Some interesting mid-level clouds to the west of London but unable to get snaps...at a glance the top look vaguely like anvils.

Is that a later run Surrey?? Looks very promising if so as it is still almost hugging the east coast at 21z

I would suspect relatively quickly...however, I think from 03z to 14z tomorrow, storms that fire could well be back building/liner in nature, so while storms could move through relatively speedily, any affected areas could experience lengthy thundery spells (i.e train of one cell after another). This was the case on 28th June 2011, where storm motion was quite fast but still people experienced (in some cases) a good few hours of action. This I think is more true the further east one goes...I'm going to have a pop at a forecast chart later on

Calm required people...NOTHING is anticipated to kick off until the early hours...any cumulus observed is simply fair weather cloud (not supercell seedlings) and as for AcCas, I am sceptical this is a correct classification. AcCas is not mid level cotton balls, but turret like mini-rooks (chess pieces) lined up. This warmth is not plume associated...besides, it's the humidity we await not mere warmth...this will not start arriving until after dark this evening (perhaps IoW/south cost may be closer to midnight).

Interesting charts there Surrey, thanks for sharing. Seems to shove it all east sooner though

Indeed - mackerel skies always welcome - nowhere near as reliable as AcCas though to be honest, which are (absent an exploding Cb) by far the best visual precursor.

Well said Harp! Proper plumes usually deliver and are highly unpredictable - in my experience too storms can explode rapidly even to the extent radar watching only helps so far Just walking to station and lovely and warm now - can't wait to experience this time tomorrow morning

Night all - going to bed happier than last night after this 18z. Will be checking the 00z first thing tomorrow hopeful of even greater westward enhancement

18z an improvement - subtle westerly and northerly shift, amplification of the SBCAPE and taking longer for the instability to clear Come on baby, keep going

Perhaps this is where John Hammond is coming from...WRF-NMM model significantly more impressive SBCAPE than GFS and slower to clear

Oh.......how stupid of me!!!!! I'm flying off to Greece that day so would appreciate if there is no major storms then

Nope - it was emphasised that there is a broad scope for change...my point is I haven't seen a chart which suggests any real storm activity much beyond 12z so am curious as to whether he has and/or suspects there could be a delayed clearance of humid airmass.

Worst nightmare??? What chart is that? Does that combine SBCAPE and MLCAPE?That's the most westerly extending CAPE chart I've seen for days

I have a vivid recollection of those storms...proper lightning, proper thunder...that's how thunder should always sound

John Hammond - "storms could clear away for a time before we see some heavier storms later in the afternoon...bit uncertain we'll have to keep an eye on that" ...has he seen something we haven't??

I happened to be staying at my bf's the night of 6th August 2008...sufficed to say unimpressed was an understatement...after 8 and 1/2 years the rules of engagement have now sunk in

Hasten to add - I'm not being lazy - cooking dinner and occasionally having a cheeky look at my phone

Are allowed to divulge the odd chart? Eastern most, would DA5 come into that bracket??