Harry
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Posts posted by Harry
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Just now, Supacell said:
I've decided to bite the bullet and head down towards the southeast. I am not sure where I'm going yet other than south east.
That’s a good sign
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Not liking @Eagle Eye forecast - pretty much consistent with the trends I’ve been seeing on modelling - the best stuff is looking likely to go to painfully just to my east again!!!!
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Just had a very eerie yellow hue in the sky here in north Kent!
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Big differences between AROME and NMM - and equally big differences between NMM 5KM and 2KM
All now casting now.
One consistent trend I’m seeing for the SE is the time of interest is delayed by 3-4 hours, so it’s now an early hours event vs a late evening event. Another, which GFS is also showing, is that it takes far longer for the instability to clear the SE tomorrow, meaning there could rounds of storms through the night and then the morning as the instability finally clears.
Good luck with this one forecasters
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In north Kent currently and not for the first time this year, a lot of high humidity low cloud is streaming in from the east at low levels, meaning I cannot see anything in the mid-levels. If this persists like it has so often this year, at this rate I wouldn’t see lightning even from distant storms if they stay away from my locale - hope that changes!
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I’m feeling optimistic about tomorrow…which is never a good thing
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21 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I'm not convinced of much lightning on that first trough tomorrow. It's the showers that develop later tomorrow that look to have a better chance.
I suspect that first trough will have lightning when it develops out of France, and then the activity will die down as it hits the south coast.
Interestingly - NMM now showing quite a bit of MUCAPE coinciding with that heavy rain band around lunch time tomorrow. I don’t recall seeing much obvious instability on previous runs
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The variation in between the latest UKV and AROME in itself is quite stark. What I’m going to take from it is the models are struggling to get a handle on it and it’s all up for grabs. AROME still showing a huge swathe of decent instability sweeping up from the south through tomorrow evening and overnight. Let’s see how it plays out
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Must admit I’m not as optimistic as I was based on the latest models - but by no means a right off
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Positive looking charts for Sunday evening, with a large area of instability forecast to move North. Some instability showing across the far SW Saturday afternoon
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8 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I love how many people have already called this as a monumental bust, three days early
I get it - but there’s absolutely no reason to suggest a lot of people won’t be rewarded for their patience on Sunday.
Main things to watch out for are:
• Reliance on poor models
• Cherrypicking only the runs that support what you want to see
• Storms on the continent eating up all the energy Sunday afternoon
• Le Clag Francais ruining everything on Sunday morning
• Being in or near Sheffield
Exactly! Slight concern for me is that the current GFS has only a glancing blow of MUCAPE through the Sunday evening across the SE quarter. One to keep an eye on!
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9 minutes ago, Azazel said:
The migration away from Hampshire begins!
That’s 03z - models that have been shared on here to date (admittedly I’m not able to do much research at the moment) suggests there could 24 hours of storm potential. As long as the instability is around so too is the chances
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Just steady heavyish rain here now. Am calling the ‘bust’ now. Not going to see any thunder and lightning here. Instability clearly isn’t there or isn’t sufficient to cause a spark
️ looks like east Kent might just get some action
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The fact that intense Brighton mess hasn’t sparked leads me to conclude the opportunity is over for my neck of the woods
could change but highly doubtful.
The appalling 2023 continues for me.
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Slightly concerned about the band of rain drifting up from France that wasn’t particularly modelled.
Low humid murk has really wafted in here and I have no idea what the mid levels are looking like
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The modest CAPE across the SW is resulting in some surprising amounts of electrical activity. Hopefully a good sign for the next few hours
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We’ve still got a low level NE breeze which is blowing in fairly thin low level murk. Will make any lightning difficult to see later from my vantage point
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24 minutes ago, Polaris said:
I’m not seeing anything substantial in risk area London eastwards.
it’s a very sad state of affairs that a warning is put out for thunderstorms for 1 clap of thunder - just look at this mornings warning. America must laugh at us.A number of weather models are forecasting the potential for torrential rain London eastwards as well as sufficient instability for lightning, especially east of London.
I agree this morning’s warning was always inappropriate but I disagree about this evening’s. I do think it might be overstating the westerly extent however.
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Yup! Skies suddenly looking a bit more storm capable now. Has been sunny for a few hours now.
Temperature 24C and a dp now up at 18C (following the trends noted from peeps to my south). Going to feel incredibly oppressive in a few hours when the air temperature begins to fall
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23 minutes ago, Jamie M said:
Lol further west again
Not west enough for me on the latest AROME.
17C dp currently though so we are getting more moisture coming in
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The latest AROME is encouraging but the nighttime runs in my experience tend to favour westerly extents and daylight runs more easterly (that is not a scientific observation by the way).
I can’t remember who said it but I wholeheartedly agree with the earlier suggestion that the MetO adopt “advisories” to replace lower end warnings.
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5 minutes ago, Lauren said:
As usual with storms I'll believe it when I see it. Loving storms is a cruel mistress, so much temptation but so often not producing.
Still in with a slight chance in my area tonight but I’m increasingly pessimistic, as each model keeps meaningful instability just a bit too east. It’s just nice having some risk for the first time in ages though to be honest
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Interesting that the MetOffice only has a warning out for thunderstorms for 06:00 until 12:00 tomorrow. Perhaps like us they’re too baffled by the current model uncertainty
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7 hours ago, Zak M said:
EXTREMELY distant bolt from that storm near Clacton-on-Sea earlier. Got really lucky
Bloody hell @Zak M - that’s impressive!!
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Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Haha!
New sferics over Brest - getting hard to know where to look! Thankfully the skies are trying to clear again here so hopefully as it starts going dark I’ll start being able to look for some flashes