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Harry

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Posts posted by Harry

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Azazel said:

    If Arome is right I might get lucky with that second push tomorrow afternoon. Couldn’t care less about the first push in the morning. Morning storms are the worst kind but I suppose beggars can’t be choosers in this part of the world.

    We had a morning storm last year that formed (if memory serves) around 4 - 5am over south Kent/Sussex and it was genuinely the most electrified storm I’ve ever seen in the UK. There were vivid lightning flashes every 1 - 3 seconds at its peak. The main frustration was it kicked off out of the blue so was woken by the thunder then had to get ready to go to work during its peak. Standing at the bus stop with constant thunder rolling around was great fun 🥳 

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

    I remember it very well, probably my favourite plume event since I started photographing them. If I'm being nit-picky, it was July, not August 😉 Took these pics from Milford-on-Sea. When I drove back to Southampton at about 1-2am, I encountered the heaviest rain I have ever driven in, never quite seen anything like it! I was having to go at 10mph on the M27 when it was empty just to stay safe


    DSC_0995sharper.thumb.jpg.0d4e42ca84549f463beac3443671c6d8.jpg

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    Wow!!! You must of been buzzing - incredible photos. And yes it was July 2017, got the screen grabs on my phone. Was an awesome night 

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    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

    I will go with your optimism on this one Harry! 😄

    I think there's a great many reasons for optimism to be honest.

    Current modelling shows some very moist, humid and unstable air wafting up from the south through Saturday night and more especially through Sunday. Pressure will be falling as a secondary low forms somewhere between the Iberian peninsula and the Bay of Biscay and sweeps up from the south through Sunday evening, bring with it (based on the FAX chart) a number of troughs, as less moist air tries to punch in from the SW.

    There is the potential for more than one round of thunderstorms and downpours, as a number of models are suggesting at the moment. I'm seeing signals that there could be thunderstorms/downpours on the leading edge of the humid surge, as it crosses into southern England through the early hours of Sunday, then again later as the drier air begins to sweep the humid air away into the N Sea later in the afternoon and evening. 

    As we all should know by now, these are incredibly difficult events to forecast as sometimes the air is so unstable, a cow parping at an awkward angle on the edge of the North Downs could cause storms to initiate. Similarly and by far the worst case scenario, is the models have been wrongly modelling the Low (and more especially the development of the secondary low) and it tracks further east than anticipated.

    As it currently stands, this is in my opinion by far Kent/Sussex's best chance for storms this year, with the potential for further heavy and thundery downpours into early next week.

     

    • Like 6
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    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SteveB said:

    That looks like the East get all the action! I thought West was best for Sunday?

    West is showing some outbreaks too. But there’s a fair bit of interchangeability between models at the moment so I wouldn’t be cancelling/making specific plans just yet is all I can say at the moment. Some much more learned than I I’m sure will provide updates nearer the time 👍

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Depends whether you're looking surface based or not, elevated convection could be alright and if the moisture is there over the continent, it is just like a 20 mile jump to us though I appreciate you're further north than me.  ECM similar to the evolution of May 18-19th last year but with surface based storms before as well so I suspect we're close to the setup for that. All it takes is for a sliding PV lobe to advect elevated moisture with it and strong forcing followed by some alright shearing and you could get yourself an MCS or even squall line considering how storms in France tend to be. We need to look out for northern France capping followed by initiation over the channel of the elevated storms and it could be a big day, not too bad of a setup despite the face of it perhaps not being great. The area where the surface low is won't matter if it is elevated storms and the ECM did better than the CAM's last year on the elevated convection so maybe we'll see the same this year.

    I always focus on the MUCAPE and not SBCAPE when looking at general patterns. My biggest concern is at present we’re looking at a glancing blow and minor modifications could keep instability away. A big HOWEVER is that some of the best storms I’ve seen have been from glancing blows from instability…big concern remains the steering winds which on current modelling looks likely to be quite easterly…that said, may not be bad for you being located that bit further east 👍 keeping an eye on the model runs and hoping for a more concrete pattern 

    • Like 4

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Not overly excited at the moment for the SE over the weekend - far too early and at best a little uncertain. It looks likely we’ll get a jump in humidity and WRF is showing a jump in CAPE at times. But, given the position of the low, it looks likely any big storms that develop over France will sweep more east than north over towards Benelux. The SW and some more general southern regions may get some storms (CAPE generally seems better towards the SW) - but the best juice and instability looks AT THIS STAGE to stay on the continent.

    Lots of time for change and I’m looking forward to the weekend - but keeping any excitement well contained based on what I’m seeing 

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Harry

    Had to head back into the office, having only got to observe one rumble. Of all the days and times to have be in the office, gutted is an understatement. Dark over London at the moment with heavy rain just starting as I've come back in. Atmosphere feels like it really wants to go, but not quite happening just yet. I think if this had been 3-4 o'clock it'd have been a more exciting story.

    Edit - the size of the raindrops are insane! Imagine heavy snow but falling like stair rods...can't remember the last time I saw rain like it!

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Harry

    Thankfully it’s lunch time so have come outside and found a quiet ish courtyard. Very humid with the sky greying over but haven’t heard or seen anything yet despite blitzortung suggesting very nearby strikes. Think I’m destined to go storm free this year 🤣

    Edit - get in - first rumble of the year for me!!!

    • Like 1
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