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Harry

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    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Harry

    Had to head back into the office, having only got to observe one rumble. Of all the days and times to have be in the office, gutted is an understatement. Dark over London at the moment with heavy rain just starting as I've come back in. Atmosphere feels like it really wants to go, but not quite happening just yet. I think if this had been 3-4 o'clock it'd have been a more exciting story.

    Edit - the size of the raindrops are insane! Imagine heavy snow but falling like stair rods...can't remember the last time I saw rain like it!

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Harry

    Thankfully it’s lunch time so have come outside and found a quiet ish courtyard. Very humid with the sky greying over but haven’t heard or seen anything yet despite blitzortung suggesting very nearby strikes. Think I’m destined to go storm free this year 🤣

    Edit - get in - first rumble of the year for me!!!

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Windblade said:

    Ok, so this is a very welcome surprise, just had a huge crack of thunder here but didn't look stormy a few mins ago? Clouds bubbling up for sure but nothing stormy looking. Could it be from that Maidstone cell that's moved it's way towards us I wonder? 🤔 I just want some lovely rain at the mo to cool things down but I'll take a storm if it's on the cards!

    That cell is running right over my house (and I am in London today). If I do not get any thunder or lightning in London, gutted will not even begin to cover it.

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Harry

    25 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Alright well I don't necessarily agree with Jay's map, I think he mightve overdone the high maybe but I gave him the freedom to do the map all by himself today. Here's my discussion;

    Convective Outlook ⚡ 

    Monday 08:00 - Tuesday 04:00

    Significant bouyancy and CAPE should provide another day of strong thunderstorms. 2000 J/KG of CAPE with surface lift fairly strong should mean that breaks in cloud will allow for surface heating to be strong enough to break capping eventually.

    However, saturation looks to be fairly strong weakening lightning potential and providing a layer of cloud somewhere. However, that layer should be broken through just not as strongly as elsewhere.

    This is troubling the models at the moment and leading to lots of different solutions. Given the pure amount of CAPE, especially wih 150+ J/KG of 3CAPE. Therefore strong storms with frequent lightning and perhaps low-end severe hail (1 inch) is plausible somewhere, mostly likely within the moderate and high risks. Despite that saturation.

    Moisture is high and with low LCL's, 30 to 40mm's of rainfall within an hour locally is possible in areas. Similar to the last few days. So a severe for surface flooding possible and a small chance of low-end severe hail.

    Entrainment CAPE being low due to forcing and/or tall LCL's and short EL's is unlikely. Having taken a look at a sounding on the AROME in a fairly good area to get a general idea, 827(I'm assuming metres) LCL's and 12km EL's and possibly locally taller,is a good sign for a lot of CAPE to be taken up.

    Forcing is strong enough for clusters or possible an MCS again so despite weak shearing, storms should remain fairly long-lived. If shearing were higher, I suspect we would've upgraded to a high risk further south and west as well even with the cloud cover issue but being fairly weak it means that air parcels have to remain in an open sector for convection for fairly long and also be very quick at connecting to be anything more than a pulse storm.

    So given that, I suspect that a lot of cumulus congestus will go up early afternoon but keep recycling the convection centre hitting the cap and cloud until one of the convection centres bursts through it. Then we'll get a proper storm to form and then more and more keep forming as they all burst through the capping and possible cloud then we'll likely get a stronger build up of bouyancy and more vigorous convection than modelled as we've seen on Saturday and Sunday. That should happen widespread especially across the moderate and high risk areas.   London might be a bit too south to see the strongest storms and only seeing weaker ones if at all but there has been a slight southerly and easterly trend on most models recently. This cap breaking likely means that initiation won't be aroun 1-2pm like normal but more 3-4PM but quickly upscaling into clusters.

    In these clusters or possible MCS's, some models are showing 80+ km/h wind gusts localised so some low-end severe wind gusts are plausible but still unlikely and in very localised spots.

    Generally 1 inch hail and flash flooding is what's given the severe risks. This is a very similar day to Saturday and Sunday but a slight shift of area.

    In areas of Scotland, especially the south and the northeast, some fairly strong storms are also possible away from the main area further south so there's an increase in risk there.

    Similarly there's an increased risk in parts of Ireland and northern Ireland. So a slight risk has been added there and linked up with the Scottish risk.

    20230611_215652.thumb.jpg.6f784fde5adce29954b937edc314de73.jpg

    Love the optimism but I can’t help but think this is a little too far SE for my neck of the woods…but I’ll take it, cheers @Eagle Eye 😉

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Stormhog said:

    Some fresh mushies punching through in Northern France, Holding out for the smallest chance of a light show in the Channel later.

    Could contain:

    I have seen some models on and off hinting at the potential for some convective rainfall to spread up from France across the south. I think the chances are very low, but more than happy to keep my fingers crossed 😊🤞🤞🤞

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Azazel said:

    Swindon is going to get a pasting.

    I know a tiny cell has gone up in the south east but I can’t see anything following this band to be honest. The energy has been used up.

    Nothing has used up any of the energy where that isolated cell has formed. I can see it from here - looks a little ropey but is nevertheless developing an anvil.

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    My south is looking increasingly moody and my sister-in-law in Petts Wood has just asked if it’s going to rain.

    The Crawley cells are creeping slightly north as well as NW, but building slightly eastwards bit by bit too!!! The sky to my south and SE is the closest I think I’ve seen to Cu build up without properly blowing. This could be a close one. 

    30C here with a 16C dp.

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

    06z AROME breaks out something this evening in the Channel... Really clutching at straws here!

    Could contain:

    Yes indeed. The AROME 6z does appear for the SE to be a breeding area of storms that will quickly grow upscale and track west late afternoon into the evening. Based on the Cu field that has suddenly appeared to be south and east that would be consistent with what I’m seeing 

    • Like 2
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