Harry
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Posts posted by Harry
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Just now, urbanj said:
That distant thunder will be the story that has just erupted over Croydon.
Lightning, loud thunder.That would be the boom I just heard.
And another huge boom as I was typing from your direction
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Yaaaaay definite thunder - huge boom from the west!!! Woohoo!!! What an amazing few days!
Again - not showing on detectors
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I think I just heard distant thunder!
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Much in the way of lightning @Mapantz? I have a few storm lover friends in Southampton and the detectors have been woeful tonight so I can’t really rely on them.
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Not sure if anyone has access to a Doppler radar at 21:50 around Joydens Wood/Bexley area, but I’ve looked back at the video I took of what I thought was a shelf cloud and I’m puzzling over whether it could have been a funnel cloud. The lightning flash was from different angles behind it and it’s far too low for shelf cloud - it could be chunky scud but it was too dark to see if it was rotating or not.
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Lightning has petered off here now.
EDIT - bright flash just now
But has been several minutes since the last one. And a few more.
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Have seen nearly two dozen flashes now with thunder - far more than showing on blitzortung
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Just managed to catch this roll-cloud / shelf-type feature illuminated by lightning. Almost looks like a tornado.
Wind really got up too!!
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Some brilliantly bright flashes now - right across the sky - and first thunder heard! Third thunder night in four days - Septembers are pony apparently
Lightning detector not picking these up well too it seems!
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Had a few brighter flashes recently
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Seen a flash to my south - woohoo!
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The most conducive environment for lightning at the moment very much seems to be West Midlands through into Wales (although noting there are odd exceptions!).
Showers elsewhere seem to be trying to get going, but are not extending much beyond localised, occasionally torrential downpours.
From a 'my back yard' perspective, I'm encouraged (as @Flash bang flash bang etc alludes to above) by the more conducive environment forming over NW France and the Channel Islands currently, which is expected by some models to generate heavier and possibly thundery downpours later this evening across the SE.
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Convective Weather
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UKForecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.
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UKV suggesting some more organised downpours across the SE this evening, consistent with a marked uptick in CAPE showing on WRF-NMM…I’ll be keeping an eye peeled this evening therefore.
Widespread CAPE tomorrow and again Friday so will be interesting to see how it pans out
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I stopped messaging on here last night as there was too much to keep an eye on!
As early as 21:00, it was possible to see lightning flashes in the SE and SW skyline. Over the next couple of hours, more and more storms developed, each flashing away. At one point I had lightning flashes from every compass direction - all from different cells while I was standing under dry conditions - I can't ever remember that happening before.
I heard my first thunder around 23:00, with some fairly close lightning flashes/cracks during a 10 minute period as they moved overhead. They were so bright they set off our neighbour's security light. The storms then trundled off E/NE and I was treated to some very vivid lightning flashes and distant rumbles as I dozed off to sleep. One in particular was extremely bright from behind the curtains, followed about 20 - 30 seconds later by a distant, ground shaking boom (love positive strikes!!).
The past 10 days have been awesome for storms in my neck of the woods and I can't believe @Nick F has indicated another 50% chance tonight.
Awesome!!
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Atmosphere is getting agitated here - just had a light shower from some developing Ac.
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Can see the lightning flashes from the Channel storms (near the Kent/Sussex coasts)
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After appearing relatively capped and calm looking, the sky here seems to be rapidly filling with Ac and some chunky AcCas in places (although hard to verify). Can also see what appears to be anvils streaming in from the far SW skyline.
Visually at least, it’s starting to look promising for our neck of the woods @snow raven
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17 minutes ago, snow raven said:
What do you think of our chances this evening/over night Harry? Do you think anything will reach London/SE?
Honestly @snow raven I wouldn't like to guess.
There seems to be more 'potential' tonight than last night in terms of CAPE, but the models are chopping and changing as to possible coverage of storms for our area.
I would say on balance they have been fairly favourable over the past 24 hours, so I am reasonably optimistic (but not expectant).
In terms of timings for best chance, this is what the models seem to be suggesting:
UKV (12z) - 20:00 and 00:00
AROME (12z) - 00:00 - 02:00
WRF-NMM (06z) - 22:00 - 02:00
WRF-NMM (Higher Res) (06z) - 22:00 - 01:00
The most organised potential is further west it seems to me, but my motto is where pressure is falling and you have decent CAPE (tonight up at around 1,000 for a good few hours), you can get a little excited.
If I was a gambling man, I would NOT in a million years have said lightning would be as frequent or anywhere near as widespread as it ended up being last night!! As for tonight therefore, who knows!
Keep an eye on that band of storms moving NE across the SW over the coming hours is the best advice I can give and hope for some storms to develop ahead of this line.
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Looks like a repeat of yesterday evening/night across the SW approaches at the moment - just much earlier and much further west.
Curious to see how that line evolves through the evening.
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1 minute ago, Nick L said:
The radar site is right in the middle of that, and it's suddenly gone down.
Blitzortung hasn't gone down
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Cornwall getting some action right now. Looking fairly active too.
From a very much NIMBY perspective, UKV is now on the same line as AROME and NMM with a thunderstorm cluster across SE parts tonight.
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Despite the lower temperatures today, it feels sooooooo humid!
21c temperature / 17c dew point
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AROME and NMM going for an MCS type feature across the SE tonight. UKV having none of it.
Could be interesting
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
These are big Cu - only the 2 booms and suspected rumble so far, but either way it’s going to absolutely belt it down soon!