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SnowBear

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  1. SnowBear
    I don't think you can compare our notion of spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons to hurricanes. A hurricane "season" is when they may occur, but it doesn't mean to say it will start in any particular month, have a certain number of storms, etc. It may start early, late or even have storms completely outside of the expected months or "season", we may see one storm per month or 3 or even 4 storms all active at the same time. Many factors need to be right for them to form, sheer, humidity, sea surface temperatures, the right air coming from the Sahara and so on. We have also seen a -1°c+ Sea surface temperature anomaly off the coast of Africa, this is now reducing in size and more favourable 26°c+ water is covering a larger area. What it does mean is that whilst conditions may not be right at the moment and we have a subdued start to the "season", once the storms do start to appear in favourable conditions it's often seen that the large available energy from the sea surface can be tapped into and as a result stronger storms may occur. An earlier or near normal season would have seen that energy being slowly used as the season progresses.
  2. SnowBear
    Yes, can be 10 days or even more if it goes a wandering lol A little more activity though low chances for now, 3 areas being noted. Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV Will the tropics wake up with a roar?
  3. SnowBear
    Chances for anything forming from the current activity around Cabo Verde Islands dropping, reduced showery activity and as such the chances are now a low 10% in 24hrs, 20% over 5 days. We wait some more.
  4. SnowBear
    Yes, even if a disturbance doesn't make tropical storm status it can still collect a huge amount of water and dump it on land. 13" of rain in 12 hrs, that's as much as some Cat1+ hurricanes drop. No wind, no storm surge, just mountains of rain!
  5. SnowBear
    Grasping at straws here... A small chance... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated today in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Latto
  6. SnowBear
    I note references to the hurricane season again. Currently the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has pretty much run out of time to form anything much and will mostly be I feel a rain event along that coast. The wave/disturbance off the coast of Africa is a low chance of formation, conditions are only "marginally favourable" as quoted by the NOAA forecaster. 0% over the next 48 hrs, 20% over 5 days. Sorry folks, a while yet before we get a pattern buster from the tropics.
  7. SnowBear
    Time is rapidly running out for the GoM disturbance to form anything meaningful. Now down to 50% chance. The wave coming off Africa is the same as before, 0% chance in 48 hrs, and as conditions are only "marginally" favourable, 20% over 5 days. We wait some more!
  8. SnowBear
    System in GoM is now at 70% chance to form a tropic system. The window for formation is quite small though. As mentioned above we now see a wave foracast to move off the coast of Africa, currently 20% chance of tropical storm formation over 5 days. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today and tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Forecaster Roberts
  9. SnowBear
    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1050 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche are getting better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form later today oron Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Beven
  10. SnowBear
    Live Cam Pesaro - Flaminia Bay | SkylineWebcams WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM Panoramic view over the Flaminia Bay in Pesaro Live cam Not the best of cams but definitely lightning well there.
  11. SnowBear
    Its one that is being watched, 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm once it enters the GoM. Possible invest/recon tomorrow. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Beven
  12. SnowBear
    Probably a local record yes, not national, that's 341mm in 24 hours in Cumbria. I would tend to think that although Holbeach was the highest on that day, it was possibly due to lower than usual rainfall elsewhere rather than it being super high. Many places around the world have large quantities of rain every day sometimes feet of it (300mm+). Additionally the storms in the Med looked to be moving fairly quickly rather than stationary. Interestingly the record currently stands at 1,825mm of rain in 24 hours (that's 6 feet!) during Cyclone Denise which hit the La Réunion Island of Foc-Foc, this occurred in January 1966.
  13. SnowBear
    I note some are speaking of Atlantic SSTs. This graphic from NOAA shows where the anomalies are. You can see a fairly large area which is 1 or 2 degrees below average. This may not sound a lot, but it can mean the difference of being at 26°c, or not and also being in the right place to favour tropical storm development and the long tracks to the Americas. Tropical storms and hurricanes are actually very sensitive systems, I've seen cat1+ storms snubbed out within 24 hours due to wind sheer, and similarly from moving over colder water. If that sub 26°c water is in the path of development, or at the beginning of it, no tropical storms will get going.
  14. SnowBear
    I guess we can start with rainfall. On the 16th August (yesterday) was the anniversary of the Lynmouth (1952) and Boscastle (2004) floods. Lynmouth was flooded after 229mm (9") of rain fell on the hills of Exmoor during thunderstorms. Boscastle was flooded after 200mm (8") of rain fell on the hills behind the village. Otterham recorded the 200mm, and Lesnewth, a little village I've stayed in recorded 185mm. At one point Lesnewth recorded an inch of rain in 15 minutes. The whole area has many narrow steep sided valleys contributing to the River Valency which runs through Boscastle. Both Lynmouth and Boscastle suffered similar fates, the rivers could not cope with the volume of water (20 million cubic metres is the estimated volume which passed through Boscastle in that 24 hour period), along with compounding factors of debris and water course encroachment. The volume of rain is approaching the volumes we often see recorded in hurricanes, often 8",10" or even 12" of rain is not unheard of once a Cat1+ hurricane makes landfall. In this instance all very quickly channeled into narrow valleys and small steams and rivers as it goes down to the sea.
  15. SnowBear
    Guns N Roses - November Rain. Mamas and Papas - California Dreaming. Fairport Convention/Sandy Denny - Who knows where the time goes.
  16. SnowBear
    Harbour Lights was severely damaged, the clothing shop near the bridge is a complete rebuild. The Riverside had the corner taken out, that's been rebuilt and it gutted the Welly Hotel when the river decided to go through it dumping tons of debris inside, that's been restored. All the little cottages on the right hand side as you look down the harbour and the old Ship Pub had damage along with the Museum of Witchcraft and Magic.
  17. SnowBear
    Meanwhile.... Earlier in Clovelly... Clovelly Cottage Tea Rooms water fall It is a Facebook link, not sure if they work here?
  18. SnowBear
    Both Boscastle and Lynmouth now have systems in place to hopefully prevent a repeat of either. Lynmouth has a huge wide channel which was built after the flood. Boscastle similarly has a culvert and a fairly wide channel now down to the harbour. Both rivers are kept very much clear of debris as it was a factor in the floods and also no building encroachment on the river margins is allowed. I visit both quite regularly, at least twice a year for Lynmouth (tied in with work), and it will be twice this year for Boscastle too with a week there in October. Gotta have my fix of Cornwall as often as I can especially the Bodmin up to the Tamar Valley area where my family come from
  19. SnowBear
    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Atlantic Ocean: A broad trough of low pressure continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur due to generally unfavorable environmental conditions while the disturbance moves slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi
  20. SnowBear
    THUNDERSTORMS WWW.WEATHER.GOV Quite a good page on info there. I understand what those labels you quote mean mostly, but it's difficult to explore further here without a whiteboard to draw diagrams etc to show how the air masses at various levels interact and twist both laterally and vertically in 3d space. Keep learning! Hurricanes next Edit: added another link Lecture 31 - Thunderstorms and tornadoes WWW.ATMO.ARIZONA.EDU
  21. SnowBear
    Tropical storms are really struggling to get going at the moment. None forecast in the next five days in the Atlantic, and a 20% chance a disorganised area of storms in the GoM will form a tropical storm over the next 5 days. NOAA forecast an active season, its anything but so far.
  22. SnowBear
    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A weak low pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Only slight development of this system is possible while it moves west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph and approaches the Texas coast later today and tonight, then moves inland over southern Texas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. The reconnaissance aircraft mission scheduled for later today has been canceled. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. For more information on the system, see products issued by the National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Forecaster Brown
  23. SnowBear
    NOAA were predicting in May an active season, but yes, it's very quiet. Still time yet though.
  24. SnowBear
    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Latto
  25. SnowBear
    Now 10% overall. We have to watch for the next one now I am afraid.
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