chapmanslade

What media ? If you believe the Daily Express or Daily Mail you are always going to be misled.

Have you actually read it properly? There is a chance for more organised rain to develop, along with strong winds, but confidence on this is currently low As in not likely. Write off winter at the end of December ???? Today's maximum 2C here so hardly tropical.

Replying in the correct thread. Automated Weather apps are always just going to be a single model output - trying to blend models into an app would be impossible and whichever one you use it will be wrong at some point BBC use a range of models for their TV forecasts and often refer to variations between models. At the short time scale for TV forecasts there are rarely significant discrepancies between models and Meteogroup provided the BBC with improved graphics and IT integration. They were not forced to choose Meteogroup, but they were required to tender. Ian Fergusson has posted on here in years gone by explaining how they achieve their forecasts and just bashing the BBC / Meteogroup v BBC/ Met Office is just plain silly

Well they obviously were not or it would have snowed !

That isn't actually possible. Dew point cannot exceed temperature as the air is saturated when the two are the same.

Wind will be from the SW initially which down near the coast will mean rain for you - it will gradually veer to a NW later which may help you, but by then it will be slightly warmer anyway so I think you will struggle to see much other than a wintry mix.

We managed 30cm that day and there was more than that at Maiden Bradley

I do wonder sometimes if armchair experts realise how insulting their opinions are to professionals in many walks of life ! My experience of the Met Office is that they are a highly professional and world renowned organisation that provide a hugely important service to many.

You have to be very careful how you interpret comments on this thread. The 'GFS is rubbish' can actually mean, 'the model is poor and rarely verifies', 'the model is not showing what I want', 'the model is showing something different to the others and isn't what I want to believe'. As you can see these are three very different things. Verification stats are available for all the models and none are perfect. The stats are not that different for all models in the grand scheme of things but all will get it 'wrong' on occasions or be slow to pick up on changes. So - read with caution ! probably the biggest problem is that the GFS goes out a long way into the future with 'apparently' the same resolution - as in when you look at the chart it looks just the same at 06z as 240z. I have often thought the charts should blur out as you get further into the future to an ensemble average to make this obvious.

Snowing and settling in Wales apparently (well I've seen a picture!)

Why not ? Some pokey showers around tomorrow.

I collected 136mm including Wednesday up until Sunday afternoon. Little bit of extra altitude helped I expect. The soil was pretty dry on Tuesday so we did need it !

It certainly is. Here in France we have had 5 days of 30C plus with expected peak of 36C on Monday so plenty of heat here to export !

Probably hearing a leader before the main strike

I very much doubt that !

I would have a read here about thunderstorm types and why / when we get them.

That makes it much clearer !

What on earth are you on about !

Good storm here in the Charente last night. Started with a virtually dry storm at midnight with strong inflow gusts and strobe lightning for about an hour. Cloud base 10k ft with the looks of it. Following cells increasingly lower with torrential rain went on for about another 3 hours on and off.

Here it is from a field in Pewsey !

My son just sent a picture of the Oxford cell from Pewsey - looks like an atomic explosion!

You guys at home are importing the high dew points we have in France currently. We had a misty start to the day here at 23C as the sun came up ! Forecast 38C here today which makes it 7 days with a maximum over 33C and no night time minima below 21C. Peaked at 40C on two days. Storms yesterday and overnight and then later today for us.

Kicking off early again here in France today, Just like yesterday.

Currently about 400 miles south of you in the Charente and I can assure you it isn't 'crud' here. Storms have been initiating almost at random for the last 24 hours with very high cloud bases and we have a line of storms just passing through here now. I'll give them a good blow and send them your way. The atmosphere here is juicy - we had a minimum of 22C last night which was the coolest for the last 5 days !

It is probably fair to say that this forum is not the place for you ! Anyway good consistency for some heat again later next week. What is important however is that the heat over France never goes away, so it doesn't take very long for it to return, rather than having to drag it up from Spain. I'm in France for the next few weeks and certainly the first 10 days are looking pretty hot with few days sub 30C and plenty pushing 40C - all this only a few hundred miles south of the UK.