chapmanslade

It isn't even that far away. France has been very hot recently.

Some pretty damaging storms in France currently. 8cm hail reported in Niort

Serious thread drift, but passing a red light is an absolute offence - no need to prove intent or otherwise. The amber light is on for 4 to 6 seconds (depends on the speed limit) and gives enough time to stop before the red even in wet conditions. Passing through an amber light is fine, but not a red. As any driving instructor would tell you when approaching a green traffic light ..... what is it going to do next ? Anyway, back to the weather

Went red at the last minute! Don't worry about the 4 to 6 second amber warning you got !

Well they are reaching the tropopause, probably with overshooting tops which is as high as they can get. Obviously the tropopause is lower in the winter and higher near the equator. Commercial airliners fly at around 40k ft, so not something you really want to encounter, coffin corner and all.... hence the reason they are avoided

It is still very much there, just the northern extent of the real heat is varying run to run depending on the Atlantic low. I'm in France next week so looks pretty certain the heat will get as far as me! My son is currently based in Marrakesh and they are forecast an unusually warm for the time of year 38C for several days next week, so there is plenty of heat to tap into.

Possibility of a plume next week. ECM and GFS firming up on significant WAA into France where the first 30C of the year could be reached. Whether it will reach the UK ..........

The warm up will happen, but the crucial bit is whether it gets out of France or not. ECM and GFS both pretty strong on heat in France by the middle of next week, maybe the first 30C of the year in Bordeaux.

As before @fergieweather explained what the BBC use I assume the misconception is simply because the primary deterministic global model we use on TV graphics is ECMWF (although we can, & some of us periodically do, also show GFS & UKMO-GM for comparative purposes such as the lead-up saga we endured into Christmas Day). The principal mesoscale/regional model we used was, until a fortnight ago, Euro4 (with its raw output edited as needed by DTN forecast team). However with that model now retiring, we've switched to UKVx as the default. None of this feeds into the app, however - both it, plus TV site max/mins & 7-day outlooks are MOS driven, as prior explained. Cheers

@fergieweather highlighted the uncertainty on Tuesday and said it could run further west as it did.

Why the GFS op went with it's op? Not sure what you mean, but clearly the lack of ensemble support was a very good indication that the op was less likely as has turned out to be the case. Why is this a problem, it is exactly why the ensembles are there. These are mathematical models not people or forecasts.

I think some on here view raw model output as a forecast. A forecaster uses the various model output together with knowledge and experience to create a forecast. If you miss any of the three bits out you will be led up the garden path.

She will blow over before she even reaches the car!

Ehh? It is quite clear what the symbols mean.

There is a difference between what falls out of the sky and how fast the sky is moving! It will be impossible to put a fence up properly on Friday

Great storm of 1987 - Wikipedia A good starting point. Computer models were considerably inferior then but early in the week they had been suggesting a significant event. The problem was it was a small feature that formed in an area of low data collection. Damage was increased by the time of year too.

And of course if ICON is right then there is more likely to be a red warning for snow in the Midlands! Chucking out red warnings willy nilly 2 days out is not something the Met Office ever do.

A little moderation is required. It is still 2 days away, hasn't even formed yet, and there is considerable model variation on outcome. Red warnings are quite rightly reserved for severe life endangering events when there is certainty about the event. Flinging out red warnings that turn out to be incorrect rapidly devalues them. Remember there have only been a dozen red warnings issued in over 10 years!

Complete rubbish. House construction rules and standards are the same across the UK Older houses suffer damage just as much as new

Define downgrade please Plus also specify when a red warning was 'left up' for a storm that didn't happen ? Red warnings are only issued very close to the event.

3 years later was the Burns Day storm which gave the '87 event a run for it's money over a much wider area

Eh? Just because SSW events were only discovered relatively recently doesn't mean they were not there before, just we didn't know about them!

I'm sure @fergieweather will not mind me copying and pasting this from the previous thread on what BBC use: No worries! I assume the misconception is simply because the primary deterministic global model we use on TV graphics is ECMWF (although we can, & some of us periodically do, also show GFS & UKMO-GM for comparative purposes such as the lead-up saga we endured into Christmas Day). The principal mesoscale/regional model we used was, until a fortnight ago, Euro4 (with its raw output edited as needed by DTN forecast team). However with that model now retiring, we've switched to UKVx as the default. None of this feeds into the app, however - both it, plus TV site max/mins & 7-day outlooks are MOS driven, as prior explained. Cheers

In fog, if it persists - which is what may happen. I'm currently looking out of the window down on to an inverted layer of freezing fog at 11.00am.

The difference at 144h between the ECM and GFS 06z is one of positioning. There is a strong northerly blast on both but on the ECM and 00z GFS it goes about 500 miles further east into N Europe, whereas the 06zGFS has it hitting the UK. Fine margins and all that. Not saying either is right but certainly some interest.