chapmanslade

Based on his spelling I would very much doubt his expertise!

Humidity drops as air warms even at a constant dew point. Hotter air can hold more water.

You are just trolling now

That storm caused lots of problems. @TheFlyingDuck

This delightful beast is sitting just to the north of us in Charente. Huge inflow gusts from time to time. We are right on the southern extent of the cold front along which the storms are initiating. 32C at 09.00 BST after an overnight 'low' of 26C with occasional lightning to our north.

Initiation already ongoing over Biscay heading towards central western France. Very hot here (34C at 11.20 BST) but seems unlikely we will get the predicted 41C here now as storms seem to be initiating earlier than expected. Storms are moving very quickly.

Feels like is NOT the actual temperature. If you want 27C actual then Spain and France will not be far off on Sunday night. We are forecast a minimum of 26C Sunday night here, and it is not pleasant!

What that does show is the trough (labelled Morning Meh) extends considerably further south than on the fax chart / forecast. We were supposed to wake up to mainly clear skies here, but were instead woken up by thunder and torrential rain in the Charente. Will probably take the edge off today's max temperature too, had 35C yesterday and was forecast slightly higher today.

That initiated over us this in the Charente as a small single cell storm mid morning that then became a huge storm crossing France pretty much on it's own

Sorry I meant 5 or 6 days for the whole summer not just August. Last year was the first time France has recorded 40C+ somewhere for 4 consecutive months (June - September) Next week does indeed look unusual for how far north and west the heat reaches.

Exactly. Far more support for those uppers in France next week - it takes very little to 'waft' that a little further north. Remember how GFS op picked up on the heat last summer, and has picked up the plumes so far this summer (whether they reached the UK or not)

Well I live on that line pretty much and we regularly have 40C plus, 5 or 6 days last year at least. It is looking pretty hot next week

Yes the theme seems to be a reload. The trough that has been over the UK for a few weeks now seems to be subtly changing and moving a little further west. It doesn't take much for that to make a big difference to temperatures when it is so hot over France

Please - these are mathematical models, they don't 'play it safe' or any other form of decision making!

Amazing certainty from you for 10 days away! The reality is the heat is never far away by then compared to recent weeks so very small changes in the low position to the west make a huge difference to what happens in the UK. Mid to high 30's over France later next week. So perhaps 'it MAY be brief, but then it may not'.

Because people are taking raw model data for a point in time and assuming that will be the maximum temperature - which it will not! 17C to 19C in the south Saturday and Sunday will be more realistic

To be fair it isn't really short notice. GFS picked up on the possible plume last weekend and has hung on to the idea pretty consistently.

The crucial difference is that low doesn't just cross the country but hangs back in the Atlantic, even moving back west a little which draws up the heat from the south. In fact the 06z GFS brings the heat in more and for longer as the low stalls out west. This isn't a substantially different pattern but the position of the low makes a huge difference with all that heat in place over France

30mm of rain so far today, most of which fell during 1 hour

And the parallel has now joined in as well together with some ensembles. GFS first sniffed it out yesterday. If you don't like the lack of support in the UK then look at Paris - even more extreme than yesterday with some support. May not be especially settled but hot and thundery distinctly possible now.

Always worth looking at ensemble sets for other areas, and although the UK ensembles put the op run as an outlier later on (to a large extent) the Paris ensembles show many more runs supporting it (end even more extreme there too). Certainly looks like a change is being toyed with.

Exactly. 23C and sunny here all day so far (every day this week has been over 20C too with just 10mm of rain mostly overnight Wednesday). Some on here were suggesting this last week was virtually Armageddon with rain all day and mid teens temperatures. Some of those same people are moaning about next week already. I really do wonder if some on here ever actually go outside and just spend their entire lives looking for jam tomorrow on a computer / phone screen! But guess what is most common at all times of the year - average! Some were even moaning June was no good, when it was the hottest and sunniest on record!

We have had 10mm of rain this week (mostly overnight) 23C here again today and sunny to complete a week of perfectly reasonable average summer weather in the UK You are living in the wrong country for that.... You are going to be disappointed for the rest of your life at this rate.

And 23C today and plenty of sunshine to complete a perfectly pleasant week

For all the moaning and doom mongers on here and the model thread a few people need to get a grip. So far in this 'awful' week here it has been: Monday 20.2C some sunshine in the afternoon Tuesday 21C sunny most of the day Wednesday 21C sunny until mid afternoon Today currently 23C with sunny spells this afternoon Yes we have had some rain overnight but my eyes were shut at that point. This is perfectly average July weather in the UK. We don't live in the Med!