chapmanslade

Ehh? What about the 4 or 5 weeks of stubborn high pressure we had in June?

An expert will never do that! If they do then they are not experts!

Look on the metadata for the picture - it will tell you exactly when it was! You missed off 'pestilence'

I remember your picture and remember the storm. Couple of big CG's over Corsley about a mile away (maybe even that one) caught the attention.

I would read the sticky thread on thunderstorms in the UK - what you are suggesting will never happen

A lot of Southern Europe has endured an extremely wet early summer, a product of the anticyclone over the UK trapping the low pressure over Spain, southern France and Northern Italy. Many rain records broken and I think they have probably had enough of it now!

True, as for the preceding 3 or 4 days the heat in France was extreme, I had to endure it! That was where the UK heat came from. There were 4 consecutive months (June, July, August and September) in France last summer where 40C was breached, the first time that had ever happened.

Currently in the Charente and a lot of elevated convection kicking off here. Cloudbase must be 5k ft or more. Had one out of the blue massive CG half an hour ago but plenty more to come this evening and through into Monday Sea temperature will make no difference to this stuff, it is popping up new cells in Biscay as I write

3C to 4C per hour is possible with the high sun at this time of year. Humidity will slow it down but then also give it a higher starting point and warmer feel.

So there you have your answer You are looking at raw model data not forecasts. Friday night is already difficult to forecast with considerable variation between models on how much convection there will be. If there is a lot then there will almost certainly be a lot of cloud around on Saturday morning in a very humid airmass which means it could hang around a while and supress temperatures. If there isn't it will probably be scorching in the SE on Saturday. Also we are currently NOT in the warm humid airmass and so this explains the cool mornings @In Absence of True Seasons - It is comfortably in the 30's today in France where the air is coming from for the weekend.

Just remember there a LOT of things that can 'go wrong' with storm forecasts - so don't start screaming 'bust' before, during and after the event! There will be plenty of storm activity in France on Friday moving north, these may well be relatively elevated (cloud bases 5k ft) so unaffected by sea temperature, but they may also spill a lot of cloud north that will supress temperatures on Saturday.

They will be elevated storms associated with the warm front going on the latest fax for a couple of days earlier. The low seems to be stalled in Biscay

Pretty standard summer Biscay cut off low pressure actually. Ahead of the cold front the S/ SE flow will advect warmer air north over the UK. Warm front could stimulate elevated convection over the SW Give this a read A Guide To ... Thunderstorms In The British Isles | Storms & Severe Weather (netweather.tv)

You really don't want to be standing in a field with that going on! Get inside a car!

It isn't picking up much, if any, of the frequent thunder here

It isn't picking up much, if any, of the frequent thunder here

Size isn't everything! Size does not make it a supercell, although there have been some apparent right turning cells in the Midlands, and the Basingstoke cell could be doing that now too.

Seen a bit of that today but I think it is just inflow scud? Is it actually rotating?

@TheFlyingDuck Just returned to Bristol and let me know cloud tops to 32k feet west of London

SW storms constantly back building. Will be some serious spot totals rainfall around Sparkford and Ottery St Mary

One 'on topic' post in a whole page ......

Well one is and one isn't. A bit more of an explanation in your post might help!

Indeed

37.5C at Tenerife South Airport today with winds gusting to 45mph. My son flew in last night at 03.30 and it was still 26C then.

Autumnal We had everything now when Spring is called Autumnal! April showers anybody? The weather we are having now is EXACTLY what Spring is, with sudden downpours, warmth then cold as the PV wanes.