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Everything posted by chapmanslade
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
chapmanslade replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, here in wilts it is probably an underestimate - 10cm earlier. So no - not incredibly inaccurate, more like incredibly accurate! -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
chapmanslade replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
They will not be positive uppers in the south when the snow is falling. The milder air sweeps in later. -
Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
chapmanslade replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Pretty wet in Belfast too - sea levels rising faster than I thought! -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
chapmanslade replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Have a think about that. If the dew point was significantly below zero there would be no frost (dew) forming until that temperature was reached. Current dew point in London is around -1C hence the reason you are seeing dew / frost. If it were much lower there would be no frost visible as the air would still be able to hold the moisture. -
Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter
chapmanslade replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ignore any runs at your peril. They are the way they are for a reason, unless you know exactly why that is, and can be certain why they are 'wrong' then you cannot discount them. -
I was present at the 'genesis' of that storm. We had a small area of cloud move over us from the SW around 13.00 with a light shower, but incredibly strong convection as it was moving away. The first lightning strike was about 20 miles to the north of us near Poitiers and then it exploded as it went NE. Quite spectacular to watch it move away.
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
chapmanslade replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The cut off low has been toyed with for several days now and seeing how it has been the form horse all summer it is no great surprise it is getting more support. Temperature records for October may go in SW France next week, depending on position, and an overspill of heat north towards the UK cannot be ruled out -
A very warm October day looking likely early next week with 30C possible in SW France
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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
chapmanslade replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Both GFS and ECM toying with a significant heat surge after next weekend. -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
chapmanslade replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Absolutely. Rinse and repeat since June.