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chapmanslade

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Everything posted by chapmanslade

  1. Absolutely is. Just driven under that lot which is nicely lined up with the A303 and the flooding is severe in places
  2. Yes, here in wilts it is probably an underestimate - 10cm earlier. So no - not incredibly inaccurate, more like incredibly accurate!
  3. They will not be positive uppers in the south when the snow is falling. The milder air sweeps in later.
  4. Pretty wet in Belfast too - sea levels rising faster than I thought!
  5. https://www.windy.com/?50.214,-3.334,8 Very clear demarcation in the Channel between the mild and cold air - wind at 180 degrees difference. 11c in the tip of Cornwall.
  6. Keep an eye on the wind direction. If it is anything N of East then you will likely get snow, if S of East then increasingly likely to be rain. Altitude is also crucial. We have double the snow depth here compared to 150ft below us.
  7. About 10cm or so here and snowing hard again now. Radar returns always understate snowfall so even very weak returns can be quite heavy snowfall.
  8. You have taken a screen grab from a video forecast! Nothing shocking about it - a band of precipitation will move in from the south west falling as snow initially and then much milder air moving in quickly up to a 10C max. So not 10c and heavy snow at all!
  9. Looks pretty good to me, especially when you look at the visible sat as well.
  10. Yellow warning was issued just to the south of you so not a great surprise you are caught up in it I was only thinking the same thing. We had around 30cm that day and it was tough going on the roads.
  11. Because it can rain below 0C if the snow passes through a warm layer on the way down. It may even re-freeze to produce hail / graupel
  12. Have a think about that. If the dew point was significantly below zero there would be no frost (dew) forming until that temperature was reached. Current dew point in London is around -1C hence the reason you are seeing dew / frost. If it were much lower there would be no frost visible as the air would still be able to hold the moisture.
  13. Ignore any runs at your peril. They are the way they are for a reason, unless you know exactly why that is, and can be certain why they are 'wrong' then you cannot discount them.
  14. Yes, I suspect related to the 114mph gust at the Needles around that time
  15. I was present at the 'genesis' of that storm. We had a small area of cloud move over us from the SW around 13.00 with a light shower, but incredibly strong convection as it was moving away. The first lightning strike was about 20 miles to the north of us near Poitiers and then it exploded as it went NE. Quite spectacular to watch it move away.
  16. The cut off low has been toyed with for several days now and seeing how it has been the form horse all summer it is no great surprise it is getting more support. Temperature records for October may go in SW France next week, depending on position, and an overspill of heat north towards the UK cannot be ruled out
  17. A very warm October day looking likely early next week with 30C possible in SW France
  18. Both GFS and ECM toying with a significant heat surge after next weekend.
  19. 'Weeks' ??? Nice mesoscale low showing off the tip of Cornwall at the moment
  20. The storms are moving N but the trough is moving NE. Nice SE feed into the trough as well. Plenty of cells popping up over Dorset in the last 20 minutes or so.
  21. Corrugated fibre board rather than steel - hence holes not dents
  22. 36c here .... in the Charente. Just an averagely hot day for us, but pretty humid. May catch the edge of tonight's action, will be the third night of storms in 2 weeks
  23. Indeed. Trough moving in from the west for us in the Charente after midnight with storms likely from then though till mid morning Sunday. 37C here today down a couple of degrees on the last two days.
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